Sam Farmer’s NFL picks for Week 12

The Times’ NFL writer, Sam Farmer, examines this week’s matchups. Lines according to Pregame.com. (O/U = over/under). Last week’s record 7-7 (.500); season 98-62 (613). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 4-10 (.286); season 84-72-4 (.538).

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Philadelphia (4-6) at Detroit (3-7)

Thursday, 9:30 a.m.

Lions 24, Eagles 20

TV: Channel 11.

Line: Lions by 2. O/U: 45.

The Lions tend to play well on Thanksgiving, and the Eagles are in a tailspin. That said, the Lions aren’t very good, either, even though they have won two in a row. It should take 24 points to win.

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Carolina (10-0) at Dallas (3-7)

Thursday, 1:30 p.m.

Panthers 23, Cowboys 20

TV: Channel 2.

Line: Cowboys by 1 1/2. O/U: 45.

Carolina’s defense is the real deal, and Cam Newton is making few mistakes. With Tony Romo at quarterback, the Cowboys are improved and could win, but Panthers are a better team.

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Chicago (4-6) at Green Bay (6-3)

Thursday, 5:30 p.m.

Packers 27, Bears 21

TV: Channel 4.

Line: Packers by 8. O/U: 44 1/2.

The Packers are coming off an impressive victory that got them back on track after three consecutive losses. The Bears put up a good fight against Denver, but they won’t match the Packers score for score.

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Minnesota (7-3) at Atlanta (6-4)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Vikings 24, Falcons 20

TV: None. DirecTV: 705.

Line: Falcons by 1. O/U: 45 1/2.

Huge game in wild-card picture. The Vikings are more solid, don’t turn it over as much, and should run the ball well against Atlanta’s defense. Mike Zimmer will finally double-team Julio Jones.

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St. Louis (4-6) at Cincinnati (8-2)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Bengals 30, Rams 13

TV: None. DirecTV: 706.

Line: Bengals by 8 1/2. O/U: 42.

The Bengals are poised to bounce back in a big way after back-to-back losses. Their secondary is banged up, but that doesn’t matter much against a Rams team that can’t really throw the ball.

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New Orleans (4-6) at Houston (5-5)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Texans 27, Saints 23

TV: None. DirecTV: 707.

Line: Texans by 3. O/U: 48.

The Texans are playing better, and their defense has come alive. If they can get to Drew Brees, they can cause real problems for the Saints. With or without Rob Ryan, New Orleans’ defense is a disaster.

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Tampa Bay (5-5) at Indianapolis (5-5)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Buccaneers 27, Colts 23

TV: None. DirecTV: 708.

Line: Colts by 3. O/U: 46 1/2.

Even though Matt Hasselbeck is 3-0 as a starter and should be able to pass on Tampa Bay, the Buccaneers are tough. Jameis Winston is in line for offensive rookie of the year, and the Buccaneers can run it.

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NY Giants (5-5) at Washington (4-6)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Giants 27, Redskins 17

TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 709.

Line: Giants by 3. O/U: 47.

The Giants need a win, but they’d better hope they don’t have the ball with two minutes left trying to figure out what to do. The Redskins looked great against the Saints, but that was two weeks ago . . . and doesn’t everybody?

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San Diego (2-8) at Jacksonville (4-6)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Jaguars 20, Chargers 13

TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 710.

Line: Jaguars by 3 1/2. O/U: 46 1/2.

Don’t rule out the possibility of Jaguars’ winning the AFC South. The Chargers look as if they’ve mailed it in. They’re running out of players and could muster only three points at home Sunday.

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Buffalo (5-5) at Kansas City (5-5)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Chiefs 24, Bills 20

TV: None. DirecTV: 711.

Line: Chiefs by 6 1/2. O/U: 42.

Chiefs have won four in a row, and they’re tough to beat at home. This should be a good game because the Bills have a lot of weapons. Short week and they’re on the road, though, so go with K.C.

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Miami (4-6) at NY Jets (5-5)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Jets 24, Dolphins 20

TV: None. DirecTV: 712.

Line: Jets by 3 1/2. O/U: 42 1/2.

Teams are strikingly similar: hovering around .500, in flux at quarterback, and the defenses aren’t playing as well as they should. Jets get the edge because they’re at home and are better coached.

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Oakland (5-5) at Tennessee (2-8)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Raiders 27, Titans 15

TV: None. DirecTV: 713.

Line: Raiders by 1 1/2. O/U: 44.

The Raiders are a promising team, and going to be good in next few years. But they have fallen apart recently, losing three in a row. That said, the Titans aren’t very good and are 0-5 at home.

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Arizona (8-2) at San Francisco (3-7)

Sunday, 1 p.m.

Cardinals 35, 49ers 14

TV: None. DirecTV: 714.

Line: Cardinals by 10. O/U: 45.

The Cardinals will run it better than they have the last couple of weeks — watch for rookie David Johnson to see more action — and they can force Blaine Gabbert into mistakes. This one shouldn’t be close.

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Pittsburgh (6-4) at Seattle (5-5)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

teelers 30, Seahawks 21

TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 715.

Line: Seahawks by 4. O/U: 46.

Pittsburgh will put a ton of pressure on Russell Wilson with its blitz packages, and Seattle’s offensive line is really shaky. Even without Le’Veon Bell, the Steelers have lots of weapons on offense.

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New England (10-0) at Denver (8-2)

Sunday, 5:30 p.m.

Broncos 27, Patriots 23

TV: Channel 4.

Line: Patriots by 3. O/U: 43 1/2.

Brock Osweiler’s mobility helps Gary Kubiak run the kind of offense he wants to run. If the Broncos can get back to defensive form of a few weeks ago, it could be a long night for Patriots’ reshuffled O-line.

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Baltimore (3-7) at Cleveland (2-8)

Monday, 5:30 p.m.

Browns 24, Ravens 17

TV: ESPN.

Line: Browns by 2 1/2. O/U: 41.

The Ravens have nothing left. They have no Joe Flacco, no Justin Forsett. They’re running on fumes. Josh McCown will return at QB for Browns and be a steady hand, if not as flashy as Johnny Manziel.