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Sam Farmer's NFL Week 10 picks

Sam Farmer's NFL Week 10 picks
Rams offensive line surrounds quarterback Jared Goff (16) as he gets a first down late in the fourth quarter to seal the win over the Seattle Seahawks in their first meeting of the season. (GIna Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times)

The Times’ NFL writer, Sam Farmer, examines this week’s matchups. Lines according to Pregame.com (O/U = over/under). Last week’s record 11-2 (.846); season 88-44-2 (.667). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 10-3 (.769); season 63-64-7 (.496).

Arizona (2-6) at Kansas City (8-1)

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Sunday, 10 a.m.

Chiefs 35, Cardinals 13

TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 705.

Line: Chiefs by 16 1/2. O/U: 49 1/2.

Patrick Mahomes is as advertised, as he’s improving every week. Not a lot of good matchups for the Cardinals. The Chiefs score early and often, and Arrowhead just gets louder.

Jacksonville (3-5) at Indianapolis (3-5)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Colts 21, Jaguars 17

TV: None. DirecTV: 706.

Line: Colts by 3. O/U: 47.

The last time the Colts hosted the Jaguars, Jacksonville sacked Jacoby Brissett 10 times and won 27-0. The Colts have gotten better, and the Jaguars have gotten much worse.

Buffalo (2-7) at N.Y. Jets (3-6)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Jets 23, Bills 13

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TV: None. DirecTV: 707.

Line: Jets by 7. O/U: 36 1/2.

No matter what the Bills do at quarterback, they’re just not a good team. Quarterback Sam Darnold can’t start (foot injury), but Jets have dependable veteran Josh McCown and are at home.

New England (7-2) at Tennessee (4-4)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Patriots 24, Titans 16

TV: None. DirecTV: 708.

Line: Patriots 6 1/2. O/U: 46 1/2.

Rookie Harold Landry is looking good coming off the edge for the Titans, and Rob Gronkowski has injury issues for the Patriots. They could struggle to score early, but still go with the visitors.

Detroit (3-5) at Chicago (5-3)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Bears 27, Lions 17

TV: None. DirecTV: 709.

Line: Bears by 6 1/2. O/U: 44.

The Lions are going to miss Golden Tate, and they can’t stop the run or protect Matthew Stafford, surrendering 10 sacks last Sunday. Chicago’s smothering defense takes charge and sets the tone.

New Orleans (7-1) at Cincinnati (5-3)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Saints 28, Bengals 20

TV: None. DirecTV: 710.

Line: Saints by 5 1/2. O/U: 54.

This could be a shootout, and New Orleans has more ammunition. The Saints aren’t quite the same away from the Superdome, and their DBs are a liability, but they will keep it rolling on the road.

Atlanta (4-4) at Cleveland (2-6-1)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Falcons 30, Browns 24

TV: None. DirecTV: 711.

Line: Falcons by 5 1/2. O/U: 50 1/2.

For the Falcons, this will have the feel of Sunday’s win at Washington. Cleveland will keep it close for a while, but Atlanta will pull away with a superior offense that’s starting to live up to its potential.

Washington (5-3) at Tampa Bay (3-5)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Buccaneers 24, Redskins 20

TV: None. DirecTV: 712.

Line: Buccaneers by 3. O/U: 51.

The Redskins are banged up, so they won’t run it as well as they should against Tampa Bay’s defense. The Buccaneers can score, and they’re at home. Still, this should be close.

Chargers (6-2) at Oakland (1-7)

Sunday, 1 p.m.

Chargers 31, Raiders 13

TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 713.

Line: Chargers by 10. O/U: 50.

Two clubs heading in opposite directions. Philip Rivers has played his way into the MVP conversation, and Chargers are rounding into a really tough team. The Raiders are just mailing it in.

Miami (5-4) at Green Bay (3-4-1)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

Packers 28, Dolphins 20

TV: None. DirecTV: 714.

Line: Packers by 10. O/U: 47 1/2.

The Dolphins have a good secondary. That said, they’re 1-3 on the road and facing a Green Bay team that’s in must-win mode. Aaron Rodgers at home and badly needing to win? Go with him.

Seattle (4-4) at Rams (8-1)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

Rams 34, Seahawks 21

TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 715.

Line: Rams by 10. O/U: 51.

The Rams haven’t lost consecutive regular-season games under Sean McVay. They’ll bounce back from the New Orleans loss and do away with a Seattle team that looks like an 8-8 squad.

Dallas (3-5) at Philadelphia (4-4)

Sunday, 5:15 p.m.

Eagles 28, Cowboys 20

TV: Channel 4.

Line: Eagles by 7. O/U: 43.

As bitter as this matchup is, it’s also lopsided. The Eagles are trending up, especially with the addition of Golden Tate, and the Cowboys are heading the other way and linebacker Sean Lee is out.

N.Y. Giants (1-7) at San Francisco (2-7)

Monday, 5:15 p.m.

Giants 24, 49ers 18

TV: ESPN.

Line: 49ers by 3. O/U: 44.

Nick Mullens is a great feel-good story, but is he more than a one-game wonder? And Eli Manning is a sitting duck behind that porous Giants line. Still, the 49ers are so beat up in so many places …

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