Rams vs. Green Bay Packers: NFL betting odds, lines, spread and how to watch
It is not hyperbole to say that this is an enormous week for the Rams. After looking bad against the Titans and 49ers, a strong performance on the road against one of the NFC’s best could answer a lot of questions about Sean McVay’s team.
Conditions will be tough at Lambeau Field for the game against the Green Bay Packers, as the boys from SoCal will deal with winds in the 20 mph range and wind chills in the 20s. Wind and cold are virtually impossible to replicate, so the Rams will have to roll with the punches.
There is a lot to dissect with this game and the line movement we’ve seen throughout the week. If it feels like there aren’t many reasons for optimism, you’ll want to keep reading.
Los Angeles Rams (-1, 47) at Green Bay Packers, 1:25 p.m., Fox
There are a few things to unpack about this line. The first is that the opening line of Packers -1.5 implied that the Rams would be favored on a neutral field. We’ve also seen strong indications of sharp money on the Rams to drive this line down and even make the Rams the favorites. With where the line currently sits, we would expect to see the Rams 3.5 or 4 points better than the Packers if a game were to be played in that setting.
Given the data points we have for the Rams against better teams, that may seem kind of crazy. It is important to note that the Packers have only managed 5.7 yards per play this season. Even though the Packers have Aaron Rodgers, this has not been an explosive offense. The Packers are only 14th in percentage of drives ending in points and only 11th in points per drive.
The Rams, meanwhile, are one of the league’s most accomplished offenses. They rank third in percentage of drives ending in points and third in points per drive. The schedule has played a part, but the Rams have a yards per play differential of +0.9. The only team better in that department is Buffalo, with Tampa Bay also at +0.9. Los Angeles is a good team, despite what the two most recent games have shown. The Packers are at +0.5 while playing a schedule a little better than the Rams.
The Rams fell to the Packers in the NFC championship game last season when Aaron Donald was not 100%. He’s healthy and ready this week to lead charge.
A lot of stats and metrics, both traditional and advanced, do grade the Rams as the better team. The problem is that we haven’t seen it against the better teams. All three losses for the Rams have been against solid teams and by double digits. The Colts and Buccaneers wins are nice, but those happened a long time ago.
The under has been popular, with the wind as a major factor. Also, you have defenses allowing 5.2 and 5.3 yards per play, as the Packers are slightly better in that department. Teams coming off of the bye have largely looked out of sync on offense, especially ones with a good offense, so that could hurt Los Angeles here.
The onus is on the Rams to prove that they can beat a good team. Sharp, respected money is on the Rams and Rodgers is less than 100%, but I still need to see it to believe it, so I side with the Packers here.
Pick: Packers +1
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