Greg Cote’s Week 4 NFL picks

Big bounce-back week for us continues a strong overall start to our 25th season of NFL predictions. You will never find us bemoaning a 13-3 mark overall and 10-6 against the spread, except perhaps in our giddiest dreams. Highlighting our week, we nailed outright upset picks with Bills over Dolphins (sorry) and Eagles over Jets, and also had ‘dog Raiders-with-points at Browns. Be loyal, momentum. Stay with me. (Note: Thursday-game pick was Steelers (+2 1/2) over Ravens, 23-20).tmpplchld ___tmpplchld Cote’s recordtmpplchld When _ Overall _ Pct. _ Vs. spread _ Pct.tmpplchld Last week _ 13-3 _ .813 _ 10-6 _ .625tmpplchld Season _ 31-17 _ .646 _ 28-19-1 _ .596tmpplchld Final 2014 _ 167-88-1 _ .655 _ 129-125-2 _ .508tmpplchld ___tmpplchld ALL TIMES EASTERNtmpplchld ___tmpplchld GAME OF THE WEEKtmpplchld Cowboys (2-1) at Saints (0-3)tmpplchld Line: NO by 5 1/2.tmpplchld Cote’s pick: NO 31-27.tmpplchld TV: 8:30 p.m., NBC.tmpplchld Slim Week 4 pickings for the Game of the Week committee. One team is missing stars Tony Romo and Dez Bryant, and the other team is winless. Nevertheless, this should be a game that keeps NFL RedZone busy _ an entertaining pointfest that lives up to the prime-time stage. Yes, the Superdome has stopped being a sanctuary; N’Awlins has lost six in a row at home. But that’s a trend fit to end. Saints get Drew Brees back Sunday and that should be enough to carry them off the schneid. Point spread’s too big, though.tmpplchld ___tmpplchld UPSET OF THE WEEKtmpplchld Giants (1-2) at Bills (2-1)tmpplchld Line: BUF by 5 1/2.tmpplchld Cote’s pick: NYG 27-23.tmpplchld TV: 1 p.m., Fox (airing in South Florida).tmpplchld “AAAWWWK!” screams the Upset Bird. “New York Giaaawwwk!” NYG isn’t far from being 3-0 and isn’t as bad as you think coming into this rematch of one of the more famous Super Bowls. Biggies don’t get Victor Cruz back Sunday as hoped, but Eli Manning-to-Odell Beckham should do fine against a beatable Buffs pass D that Miami didn’t take nearly enough advantage of last week. And Bills could be missing both LeSean McCoy and Sammy Watkins. “Time to once again see Rex Ryan the way we like him: crestfallen,” notes U-Bird. “Crestfaaawwwk!tmpplchld ___tmpplchld DOG OF THE WEEKtmpplchld Lions (0-3) at Seahawks (1-2)tmpplchld Line: SEA by 10.tmpplchld Cote’s pick: SEA 30-10.tmpplchld TV: 8:30 p.m. Monday, ESPN.tmpplchld Our Dog of the Week refers to lousiest game not to a betting underdog, and this matchup could call for the guys in the Monday Night Football booth to play Dandy Don Meredith warbling, Turn Out the Lights by halftime. Russell Wilson is 4-0 with a 123.1 rating on MNF, and 27-2 at home. Marshawn Lynch might not play and it won’t even matter. Detroit turns the ball over and plays bad defense _ terrible attributes to bring to this particular venue, especially.tmpplchld ___tmpplchld Jets (2-1) vs. Dolphins (1-2) in Londontmpplchld Line: NYJ by 1 1/2.tmpplchld Cote’s pick: NYJ 19-17.tmpplchld TV: 9:30 a.m., CBS (airing in South Florida).tmpplchld Cheerio! Are you ready for some morning football? A spot of tea with your “Breakfast at Wembley?” Blimey! Quick note: British people don’t actually say cheerio or blimey. But they do say, “We wish the States had sent us a better game!” Actually, although these rivals’ 100th all-time meeting lacks sizzle, Londoners might like the game. They’re used to soccer, and Jets-Dolphins should be about as low scoring. I expect a far better effort from Miami than we saw in last week’s home opener vs. Buffalo _ can effort get any worse? _ but NYJ looms as a tough matchup for a Dolphins offense struggling to get in gear. Jets defense has 11 takeaways and has allowed only 41 points, both NFL bests. Planes D is really good, and Ryan Tannehill has six interceptions vs. four TDs in going 3-3 against this foe. Much focus coming into this has been on the low impact of Ndamukong Suh and the struggles on defense, but Miami’s biggest early season issue is Tannehill simply not putting up enough points. And I doubt the remedy comes here.tmpplchld ___tmpplchld Jaguars (1-2) at Colts (1-2)tmpplchld Line: IND by 9.tmpplchld Cote’s pick: IND 27-20.tmpplchld TV: 1 p.m., CBS.tmpplchld Andrew Luck is nursing a shoulder issue but expects to play as he works to turn around his and Indy’s slow start. Jacksonville’s defense might be the perfect remedy. Colts have won five in a row over Jags, won 14 in a row against AFC South games, and Luck has 905 passing yards, nine TDs and zero picks in past three vs. Jax. Until Indy starts to impress, though, this point spreads reads fat.tmpplchld ___tmpplchld Panthers (3-0) at Buccaneers (1-2)tmpplchld Line: CAR by 3.tmpplchld Cote’s pick: CAR 19-13.tmpplchld TV: 1 p.m., Fox.tmpplchld The Upset Bird was circling this game like a vulture does road kill. Carolina has won four in a row over Bucs, but these games always seem close. And TB is so due, just law-of-averages stuff, after 10 home losses in a row. We’ll bet on Panthers defense giving Jameis Winston problems, but the pick is an anxious one.tmpplchld ___tmpplchld Eagles (1-2) at Redskins (1-2)tmpplchld Line: PHI by 3.tmpplchld Cote’s pick: PHI 24-20.tmpplchld TV: 1 p.m., Fox.tmpplchld This grudge match from the wide-open NFC East sees two struggling QBs in Sam Bradford and Kirk Cousins, although each could get a boost with the possible return from injury of DeMarco Murray (Birds) and DeSean Jackson (Skins). Tough call, but the Eagles, at their best, have more upside.tmpplchld ___tmpplchld Raiders (2-1) at Bears (0-3)tmpplchld Line: OAK by 3.tmpplchld Cote’s pick: CHI 26-24.tmpplchld TV: 1 p.m., CBS.tmpplchld Oakland, a notoriously bad road team, favored at Chicago tells you how far the once-proud Bears have fallen more than it speaks to the Raiders’ undeniable improvement (at least offensively). Two lousy defenses should keep it close. Oaks haven’t won consecutive road games since 2011, and I’m pegging this pick on that. Upset!tmpplchld ___tmpplchld Texans (1-2) at Falcons (3-0)tmpplchld Line: ATL by 6 1/2.tmpplchld Cote’s pick: ATL 27-20.tmpplchld TV: 1 p.m., CBS.tmpplchld Atlanta is first team ever to be 3-0 after trailing in all three fourth quarters. And Julio Jones has more catches after three games (34) than anybody, ever. Falcons have a little something special going on, and I’m not sure a tepid Houston attack led by Ryan Mallett is enough to derail that in Birds’ home dome. Although Texans getting back RB Arian Foster (questionable) would help.tmpplchld ___tmpplchld Chiefs (1-2) at Bengals (3-0)tmpplchld Line: CIN by 4.tmpplchld Cote’s pick: CIN 24-16.tmpplchld TV: 1 p.m., CBS.tmpplchld Cincy guns for its 4-0 breakout since 2005, a possibility largely because Andy Dalton is off to the best start of his career. (Save some for the playoffs, Andy!) KC just isn’t playing well enough now to see an upset. Chiefs are horrid on pass D, and Alex Smith has converted a meager 5 of 30 third downs. Injuns have lost past four trips to ‘Nati. Make it five.tmpplchld ___tmpplchld Browns (1-2) at Chargers (1-2)tmpplchld Line: SD by 8.tmpplchld Cote’s pick: SD 27-17.tmpplchld TV: 4:05 p.m., CBS.tmpplchld Intriguing matchup. Pressure on Josh McCown heats up as the cry for Johnny Manziel gains volume. On the other side, Philip Rivers is trying to stay upright behind an O-line held together with Scotch tape and twine. Still not sure how good Bolts are. Am more sure Earthtones are seldom very good on road, so we’ll make this one a venue call.tmpplchld ___tmpplchld Packers (3-0) at 49ers (1-2)tmpplchld Line: GB by 8.tmpplchld Cote’s pick: GB 34-23.tmpplchld TV: 4:25 p.m., Fox.tmpplchld This would have made a decent Game of the Week pick if only because 49ers are Pack’s nemesis, with four straight wins over Aaron Rodgers including two in the postseason. The thing is, those Niners were good. These ones are not. Colin Kaepernick and the Frans set new lows for putridity last week. A Gee Bees loss here would be a stunner.tmpplchld ___tmpplchld Rams (1-2) at Cardinals (3-0)tmpplchld Line: ARI by 6 1/2.tmpplchld Cote’s pick: ARI 34-13.tmpplchld TV: 4:25 p.m., Fox.tmpplchld Arizona stole the Cardinals from St. Louis, once upon a time. Now here comes another indignity as ‘Zona continues to surge and demonstrate why it’s a Super Bowl contender. Cardbirds’ 126 points are fourth most ever through three games, and that defense is full of playmakers. Did I mention Carson Palmer has won nine consecutive starts and 16 of his past 18?tmpplchld ___tmpplchld Vikings (2-1) at Broncos (3-0)tmpplchld Line: DEN by 6 1/2.tmpplchld Cote’s pick: DEN 30-17.tmpplchld TV: 4:25 p.m., Fox.tmpplchld Peyton Manning has been shaky at times, with not enough pass protection or running game. But oh that Denver defense! It’s why Broncos are unbeaten, and why they’ll stay that way here. DEN has enough run stoppers to limit Adrian Peterson. Vikes are improved, pretty good, maybe playoff good. But not good enough, yet, to win in one of NFL’s most inhospitable places to visit.tmpplchld ___tmpplchld OFF THIS WEEKtmpplchld Patriots (3-0; next at Cowboys): No deflated results in New England as Bill Belichick and Tom Brady roll on. Pats favored by 12 1/2 over bye. Brady projected to throw for five TDs from couch.tmpplchld Titans (1-2; next vs. Bills): Record suggests same ol’ Titans, but rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota (109.2 rating, eight TDs) has Nashville kicking up its boot heels.tmpplchld ___tmpplchld (c)2015 Miami Heraldtmpplchld Visit Miami Herald at www.miamiherald.comtmpplchld Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.tmpplchld