Racing! A full field graded stakes at Santa Anita

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we get one day closer to the Breeders’ Cup.

Before we get to a couple Breeders’ Cup items, and the sad news of the day, it’s worth pointing out that Santa Anita has something on Saturday we haven’t seen in a very long time—a graded stakes race with a completely full field. Now, you could take that two ways, you could say, “Oh, we haven’t seen a graded stakes in a while.” And you would be right. The last one was Oct. 5.

Or you could zero in on the full field. In Saturday’s seventh race, The Grade 3 $100,000 Autumn Miss Stakes for 3-year-old fillies going a mile on the turf. There are 12 horses entered with one also eligible. Wow. It’s been a very long time since we’ve seen that.

Let’s look at the graded-stakes field sizes this meeting.

Sept. 27—Grade 2 Eddie D: 8

Sept. 27—Grade 1 American Pharoah: 9

Sept. 27—Grade 1 Chandelier: 6

Sept. 28—Grade 1 Rodeo Drive: 6

Sept. 28—Grade 1 Awesome Again: 6

Sept. 28—Grade 2 John Henry Turf: 8

Sept. 29—Grade 2 Zenyatta: 6

Oct. 5—Grade 1 Santa Anita Sprint: 6

Oct. 5—Grade 2 City of Hope Mile: 11

Oct. 5—Grade 3 LA Woman: 5

For the City of Hope Mile, the rail was set at zero, so the race could have handled more horses.

Breeders’ Cup times and betting

Here is the lineup for the Breeders’ Cup. All times are PDT. (Remember to set your clocks back next Saturday night as on Sunday we are on PST.)

Friday (all the 2-year-old races)

R5 Juvenile Turf Sprint—1:12 p.m.

R6 Juvenile Turf—1:52 p.m.

R7 Juvenile Fillies—2:32 p.m.

R8 Juvenile Fillies Turf—3:12 p.m.

R9 Juvenile—4:04 p.m.

(Betting: There will be a $500,000 minimum guarantee Pick 5 (R1-5); a late Pick 5 (R5-9) with a $1 million guarantee and a Breeders’ Cup Pick 4 (R6-9) with a $1 million guarantee.)

Saturday

R4 Filly and Mare Sprint—11:55 p.m.

R5 Turf Sprint—12:33 p.m.

R6 Dirt Mile—1:10 p.m.

R7 Filly and Mare Turf—1:54 p.m.

R8 Sprint—2:36 p.m.

R9 Mile—3:20 p.m.

R10 Distaff—4 p.m.

R11 Turf—4:40 p.m.

R12 Classic—5:44 p.m.

(Betting: There will be a $1 million Breeders’ Cup Pick 6 (R7-12); a late Pick 5 (R8-12) with a $2 million guarantee and a Breeders’ Cup late Pick 4 (R9-12) with a $2 million guarantee.)

Fifth death at Santa Anita

Santa Anita had its fifth horse fatality of the meeting when G Q Covergirl injured both her front legs on Friday and was euthanized. She a 6-year-old mare who had won her last two races. She was trained by Doug O’Neill.

The horse was on the training track when the incident occurred. The surface, which is closest to the scoreboard, has historically caused the fewest number of breakdowns. However, all three training deaths this meeting have occurred on the inner surface, which is not used for racing. One of the training deaths was believed to be a heart attack and not a catastrophic limb injury. The two other fatalities were during racing.

It seems very unusual that so many horses have died on the training track. One of the fatalities was believed to be a cardiac event, not a catastrophic breakdown. For more on the horse and the incident just click here.

More on Breeders’ Cup

--Mitole ran a bullet 58.80 five-furlong gate workout at Santa Anita on Friday morning. He’ll be going in the Sprint next Saturday. Mike Smith was in the saddle for the work. “We weren’t really shooting for any specified time,” Scott Blasi, assistant to Steve Asmussen, told Ed Golden of Santa Anita. “We told Mike to let him break and just sit on him. The horse did it well within himself.”

--More workout news from Ed Golden: Encoder (Juvenile Turf Sprint) worked five furlongs in 1:01.80 under assistant trainer Juan Leyva. Trainer John Sadler said the work “went well.” Additional workouts included: Catalina Cruiser (Sprint, four furlongs in 47.80 for Sadler); Comical (Juvenile Fillies, four furlongs in 48.60 for Doug O’Neill; Lazy Daisy (Juvenile Fillies, four furlongs in 47.80, also for O’Neill); and Dennis’ Moment (Juvenile, four furlongs in a bullet 46.60 for Dale Romans).

Jeff Siegel’s Breeders’ Cup analysis

We are so fortunate to have Jeff Siegel, of XBTV, on out Breeders’ Cup team this year. He’ll be providing daily analysis as we march toward the big weekend. Here’s his first report on this year’s event, done exclusively for the L.A. Times. Just click here.

Handicapping lesson from Rob Henie

Here’s our weekly contribution from Rob Henie of the WCHR (West Coast Handicapping Report) and the ECHR (East Coast Handicapping Report). Today’s analysis comes from the fifth race at Santa Anita and incorporates some handicapping angles into the mix. Rob, take it away.

“This is a $32,000 N2L for 3-year-olds and up in late October, at a mile on the turf, meaning, only eight weeks away from this group consisting of 4-year-olds and up, in other words, not a good group and we haven’t looked at the race yet. We’re looking to avoid tired runners late in the year such as BLUE SKY JADE, running for the 12th time since February, as well as runners who’ve had multiple chances at this condition, such as BIG SKY LOGAN. We’re looking for change, runners who are on the fresh side late in the year, as well as given some new variables. With this in mind, top selection is POLICY (#7). He fits much of what we just mentioned. First, he strings three races together for the first time in his career, telling us he’s finding good health, which at least, opens the door to a potential good effort. Throw in the fact he’s now trying the turf for the first time, now stretching out for the first time, even starting as a gelding for the first time, thus, lots of new variables to help him find a better effort, also confidently placed by Michael McCarthy, entered to face open company for the first time. MUTINEER (#6) also has new variables in place, getting to face N2L’s for the first time while also being returned to the turf for the first time in eight months, not to mention Evin Roman trying his hand, riding many live horses of late for O’Neill. Again, we’re looking for different, new ‘stuff’ to help bring out better.

“Hot / Cold Race Trends: none

“Win Contenders (order of preference): 7-6

“X Out Runners (eliminating on the win end): none

“Negative Notes:

“1 Colosi - Not a fan of Baze from off the turf, especially on the sod.

“5 Hartel - You couldn’t take him for 80,000 two back, nor for 40,000 last time out, but today they’re running a special, they didn’t want your 80 grand, but 32,000 today? Sure, take him. Not a pattern we ever like to see.

“TOP PICK: POLICY (#7 12-1 Fuentes)

“SECOND CHOICE: MUTINEER (#6 4-1 Roman)”

^{The West Coast Handicapping Report can be found at http://www.westcoasthorseracing.com It has been endorsed by leading trainers, handicappers and industry sources.}

Santa Anita review

In a five-horse feature, Hard Not to Love came from off the pace to win the six-furlong allowance by three-quarters of a length. The 3-year-old filly took the lead on the far turn and cruised to the easy win.

Hard Not to Love paid $11.40, $6.20 and $2.40. Madame Vestal was second and Anuket finished third.

“[Jockey] Mike [Smith] has worked her the last three or four times and he’s gotten very familiar with her,” winning trainer John Shirreffs told Mike Willman of Sanga Anita. “She’s been a little tough going to the gate, but as you saw, Mike got her there with no problem today. He knows what he can control and he knows what she’s capable of and lets her do it.”

Santa Anita preview

We’ve already talked a little about Saturday’s feature, but we’ll get more into it in a second. There are nine races starting at 12:30 p.m. Four of them are on the turf and the track has relented and brought the rail in to just 10 feet. It’ll go to zero for the Breeders’ Cup. There are three maiden specials on the card.

As mentioned, the feature is the Grade 3 $100,000 Autumn Miss Stakes for 3-year-old fillies going a mile on the turf. Hidden Message, at 5-2, is the favorite for trainer Simon Callaghan and jockey Flavien Prat. This will be her second race in the U.S. after running in England and France. (Can you say those countries consecutively without thinking of that old children’s rhyme?) She was second in the Del Mar Oaks last out and has won twice in six lifetime starts.

The second favorite—if you ignore 4-1 Raymundos Secret who is not in the race yet—is Keeper Ofthe Stars for Jonathan Wong and Abel Cedillo. She was fourth in the Del Mar Oaks and is coming off an allowance win at Golden Gate. She has won four of her six races this year. Post is around 3:45 p.m.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 5, 8, 11 (3 also eligible), 8, 7, 8, 12 (1 ae), 7, 8.

Ciaran Thornton’s SA pick of the day

RACE THREE: No. 2 Magicially Honored (8-1)

Magically Honored is an Andrew Lerner/Martin Garcia play and they are two of three recently. Lerner is 21% MSW, 17% 2 year olds, 25% on the year and all with positive ROI. His in the money percentages are off the page as well at 40% plus this year. The horse was claimed off a second place finish at Golden Gate from red hot Doug O’Neill so from one hot trainer to another we go. Races protected today in a sign of confidence as well and we are getting 8-1 or more! This is an excellent betting race.

Friday’s race: Daring Ways was up close early but eventually faded and finished sixth in a seven-horse field.

Ciaran Thornton is the handicapper for Californiapick4.com, which offers daily full card picks, longshots of the day, best bets of the day.

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth $100,000 or more on Saturday. All times PST.

10:46 Mahoning Valley (4): $150,000 John W. Galbreath Stakes, Ohio-bred fillies 2-years-old, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Moonlit Mission (8-5)

11:00 Woodbine (3): $100,000 Overskate Stakes, Ont-breds 3 and up, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Dixie’s Gamble (1-1)

11:17 Mahoning Valley (5): $150,000 Juvenile Stakes, Ohio-breds 2-years-old, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Liberate (2-1)

11:48 Mahoning Valley (6): $150,000 Best of Ohio Sprint Stakes, Ohio-breds 3 and up, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Altissimo (1-1)

11:59 Belmont (5): $100,000 English Channel Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1 mile on turf. Favorite: Front Run the Fed (6-5)

12:18 Mahoning Valley (7): $150,000 Best of Ohio Distaff Stakes, Ohio-bred fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: Magna Rose (4-1)

12:48 Mahoning Valley (8): $150,000 Best of Ohio Endurance Stakes, Ohio-breds 3 and up, 1 ¼ miles. Favorite: Forewarned (7-2)

1:40 Belmont (8): Grade 3 $200,000 Bold Ruler Handicap, 3 and up, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Maximum Security (1-1)

1:49 Woodbine (8): $225,000 Princess Elizabeth Stakes, Ont-bred fillies 2-year-olds, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Curlin’s Voyage (1-1)

2:13 Belmont (9): $100,000 Awad Stakes, 2-year-olds, 1 mile on turf. Favorite: Tiesto (7-2)

2:30 Keeneland (9): Grade 2 $200,000 Hagyard Fayette Stakes, 3 and up, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: Tom’s d’Etat (2-1)

3:45 Santa Anita (7): Grade 3 Autumn Miss Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 1 mile on turf. Favorite: Hidden Message (5-2)

Ed Burgart’s LA pick of the day

FOURTH RACE: No. 3 Take City By Storm (5-2)

This speedster lifted in the air as the gate opened while coming away about five lengths slow in last race to disregard. He is easily the speed of this field and retains leading jockey Edgar Payearas for trainer Jesus Uranga, who is enjoying a strong meet. He won nicely at the same 4-furlong distance two outs ago and should make a clear lead with a trouble-free start.

Final thought

Always looking to add more subscribers to this newsletter. Can’t beat the price. If you like it, tell someone. If you don’t like it, then you’re probably not reading this. Either way, send to a friend and just have them click here and sign up. Remember, it’s free, and all we need is your email, nothing more.

Any thoughts, you can reach me at johnacherwa@gmail.com. You can also feed my ego by following me on Twitter @jcherwa

And now the stars of the show, Friday’s results and Saturday’s entries.