Sports gambling: Pac-12 needs to reverse trend of bad bowl play
Washington kicks off Pac-12 participation in the 2019-20 bowl season Saturday as a 3.5-point favorite over Boise State in the Las Vegas Bowl (4:30 p.m., ABC.)
Because of embarrassingly bad performances in recent bowls, the league needs to do better to gain more equal footing with its Power 5 brethren. It can’t expect the College Football Playoff selection committee to award its champ a Final Four bid if the league keeps laying eggs in bowls.
Last season, the Pac-12 went 3-4 straight up in bowls, 2-5 against the spread (ATS). Remember that bowl point spreads reflect reasonable expectations for performance based on a full season of data. The Pac-12 was (again) exposed as overrated through these results:
— Covers: Oregon (+1) beat Michigan State, 7-6, in one of the ugliest postseason games ever. You know it’s a bad year when this insult to football was one of two highlights. Washington (+5.5) covered in a 28-23 Rose Bowl loss to Ohio State.
— Near misses: Washington State (-2.5) beat Iowa State only 28-26. Stanford (-3.5) beat Pittsburgh only 14-13. At least they were straight-up victories.
— Larger non-covers: Utah (-6.5) lost to Northwestern, 31-20, missing the market by 17.5 points. Arizona State (+6) lost to Fresno State, 31-20. California (+1.5) lost to TCU, 10-7.
The seven Pac-12 bowl teams averaged only 17 points a game.
USC’s Austin Jackson, Tyler Vaughns and Jay Tufele all expect to hear from the NFL advisory committee before making a decision about declaring for the NFL draft.
Last season wasn’t a fluke. The poor 2-5 ATS mark was actually an improvement over the two previous seasons.
— 2017-18: The-Pac 12 went 1-8 straight up, 2-7 ATS. Utah’s win over injury-riddled West Virginia was the only highlight.
— 2016-17: The Pac-12 went 3-3 straight up despite being favored in five of six games. It didn’t beat a single point spread, finishing 0-6 ATS.
— Last three bowl seasons combined: The Pac-12 went 7-15 straight up, 4-18 ATS.
Does this mean bettors should fade Pac-12 teams in upcoming bowls? Pass or fade makes the most sense until evidence suggests otherwise.
Elsewhere
— Rams bettors are unlikely to get more than +6.5 points in Saturday’s must-win NFL game at San Francisco (5:15 p.m., NFL Network). Sportsbooks are aware that professional bettors would love getting the full touchdown, given game context. We already know they don’t like the 49ers in this price range or the line would have settled at 7 (or more) already.
— The Chargers’ game Sunday at home against Oakland (1:05 p.m., CBS) is showing more volatility. Through the week, the host -6.5 has been getting support, but Oakland +7 attracts underdog lovers.
Chargers enter their last home game of the season with a lot of uncertainty with players entering free agency this upcoming offseason.
— College basketball handicappers are being challenged this season by a dramatic drop in offensive efficiency across the sport. That’s scoring adjusted for pace. Offensive effectiveness is way down, possibly due to the mandated deeper distance of the three-point line.
College basketball guru Ken Pomeroy posts “adjusted” efficiency numbers (tweaked for schedule strength) on his website (kenpom.com). If you compare this season’s elites with last season, a big drop is obvious.
Both USC and UCLA are in the interesting position of getting worse on offense but ranking better nationally. They’re falling, but not as badly as everyone else.
Entering Saturday’s game against North Carolina in Las Vegas (noon, CBS), UCLA’s “adjusted efficiency” mark is 105.5. That ranked No. 69 with Pomeroy midweek. Last season’s team finished 109.8 , but ranked only No. 88.
Mick Cronin came to UCLA with a reputation as a players’ coach, but he hasn’t been afraid to take guys out of the game if they’re not playing the Bruin way.
USC plays LSU on Saturday at Staples Center (6 p.m., FS1). The Trojans’ current mark of 107.3 ranked No. 48 midweek. A season ago, its final number of 109.8 could finish only No. 72.
Smart bettors should focus on defensive skill sets, particularly rebounding, to find value investments best suited to exploit these new dynamics. If it’s more difficult to score in general, it’s going to be really hard to score on the best defenses. (If you’re wondering, USC will enter the weekend ranked about No. 80 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, UCLA about No. 180.)
— Bettors pondering the NBA futures board should remember the odd quirk this season involving the Lakers and Clippers. In terms of home-court advantage through the Western brackets, there’s no difference between being a No. 1 or a No. 2 seed. Should both advance to the Western Conference finals, the whole series will be played at Staples Center.
Current odds to win the Western Conference, according to a global composite of sportsbooks: Lakers +190 (risk $100 to win $190, or anything in that ratio), Clippers +200, Houston +450, Denver +800, Utah +900, Dallas +1500.
Paul George hosts a Christmas party in honor of people who’ve suffered a stroke. His own mother, who had a stroke when he was 6, is among the guests.
— In the NHL, neither the Kings nor Ducks will likely be worrying about playoff seeding this season. However, either could get hot and make a run at the brackets in this parity-packed league.
The Kings did just enjoy the thrill of winning on the road against the defending Eastern Conference champion Boston Bruins. Los Angeles (+230) won a 4-3 overtime shocker Tuesday. The Kings will host defending Stanley Cup champion St. Louis on Monday night.
The disappointing Ducks wrap up pre-Christmas play with back-to-back weekend matinees in New York. The Ducks visit the Islanders on Saturday, the Rangers on Sunday.
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