The coming clash of political charisma

California Democrats may finally have a charismatic voice to counter Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger -- Los Angeles’ new mayor, Antonio Villaraigosa.

Hollywood stars live or die by “Q ratings,” which rank their name recognition and likability among the public. In politics, these rankings are called “job approval ratings.” Lately, Schwarzenegger’s have been tanking. A June Field poll showed his approval rating at 31%, down from 54% in February.

In October 2003, when Schwarzenegger was elected governor, he parlayed his celebrity -- and media savvy -- into a blockbuster political Q rating. Democrats panicked and began searching for a Hollywood answer to Schwarzenegger. Up popped the names of Rob Reiner and Warren Beatty. Sorry, guys. You’re so over. As Schwarzenegger’s political Q rating has sunk, so have yours. A Field poll showed Californians aren’t inclined to vote Hollywood in 2006. In head-to-head matchups with Reiner and Beatty, the governor runs narrowly ahead.

Two already declared Democratic gubernatorial candidates have benefited from Schwarzenegger’s swoon. But the political Q ratings of state Treasurer Phil Angelides and state Controller Steve Westly are de minimus -- few Californians can pick either out of a lineup. Over the long haul, neither can command the bully pulpit as even a politically wounded Schwarzenegger can. The Democratic leadership in the Legislature can’t do it either. Legislators are notoriously obscure and media-challenged.

Cue Villaraigosa -- a Democrat who can match the governor’s political muscle and personal pizazz. Even before his inauguration, Villaraigosa was creating buzz in state political circles about a possible gubernatorial run in 2006 or later. But a run next year is improbable: Villaraigosa would be better served politically if Schwarzenegger won reelection, leaving him an open race in 2010. Meanwhile, the mayor can lead the Democratic charge on such issues as education, healthcare, transportation and immigration.

The approaches of Villaraigosa and Schwarzenegger are similar. Both are masters of what Times columnist Michael Hiltzik calls “personality governance.” Weeks before taking office, Villaraigosa traveled across the county -- and he hasn’t stopped. Like our peripatetic governor, he enjoys life on the hustings. But the governor’s penchant for campaigning in shopping malls has hurt him in the Capitol. Similarly, some Angelenos have started to question Villaraigosa’s time away from City Hall.

Although it doesn’t guarantee long-term political success -- just ask Schwarzenegger -- leaders can’t succeed without the “vision thing.” Villaraigosa gets that. In the era of the permanent campaign, it’s not enough to govern -- it may not even be necessary in the short run, thanks in part to term limits. An effective politician has to continually sell himself to the electorate.

Fights over labor issues, both in Sacramento and on the ballot, will critically test Villaraigosa’s use of the mayor’s most powerful tool, the bully pulpit.

It’s a battle tailor-made for Villaraigosa, a former union activist. Not long after Schwarzenegger declared war on public employee unions, alienating a significant Democratic constituency, Villaraigosa brokered a labor agreement -- just minutes before a planned lockout by management -- between L.A. hotel workers and their employers.

The November special election ballot includes the Payroll Protection Act, which would prohibit public employee unions from using dues or fees for political contributions unless the employee provides annual written consent. The proposition isn’t Schwarzenegger’s personal baby, but some key advisors are behind it. The battle to defeat the initiative will be an Armageddon for Democrats and unions.

Both Schwarzenegger and Villaraigosa have made education a signature issue, and the latter’s experience as an organizer for L.A.’s teachers union makes him the perfect antidote to the governor’s attempts to beat back the education lobby.

While Schwarzenegger has been taunting teachers and maneuvering to use Proposition 98 funds to help balance the budget, Villaraigosa told the crowd at his inauguration, which included the governor, that “teachers should be well respected and well paid” and “money should be spent in the classroom.”

The mayor will find himself out front in the debate over illegal immigration, whether he wants to be there or not. Democratic and Latino political leaders expect Villaraigosa to counter the governor’s sometimes provocative rhetoric. Schwarzenegger has praised the Minutemen, a self-styled civilian border patrol.

Samuel Aguilar Solis, an official of Mexico’s Institutional Revolutionary Party, put it succinctly: “The arrival of Villaraigosa will be a good point of equilibrium against the politics of Gov. Schwarzenegger.”

On a key transportation issue, Schwarzenegger has already retreated. Last month, Rep. Howard L. Berman (D-Van Nuys), a Villaraigosa ally, accused the Schwarzenegger administration of blocking efforts to fund a freeway high-occupancy vehicle lane that Berman championed. Villaraigosa, the new chairman of the Metropolitan Transportation Authority, threw his support behind the project, and soon after the governor sent Berman a letter backing the congressman’s bid for funds.

That’s just one example of Villaraigosa’s political wiring. He knows both L.A. and Sacramento (as well as Washington) and has ties to each. Don’t be surprised if he becomes an intermediary between Schwarzenegger and the Democratic majorities in the Legislature on major dealings.

Villaraigosa and Schwarzenegger may never face each other on a ballot, but if these two star politicians duke it out the issues, we’re in for quite a reality show -- a cross between “Survivor” and “American Idol.”