Ogygian Has a Lot to Prove in Travers Stakes

If a racing fan came to Saratoga after spending the past year in Siberia, picked up the Daily Racing Form and handicapped the Travers Stakes, he would not hesitate to put a big red X over the name of Ogygian. The 3-year-old has accomplished much less than his rivals, and he is facing a formidable array of obstacles Saturday.

But because Ogygian has been hailed for so long as a potential superhorse, because he has been the center of all the pre-race attention here, he is expected to be an odds-on favorite in Saratoga’s most-famous race.

Rarely has there been such a disparity between a horse’s reputation and his achievements. And this is what makes today’s 117th running of the Travers such a fascinating and important race. It should finally reveal whether all the ballyhoo for Ogygian has been justified, or whether the colt is a sprinter whose overall talents have been grossly overrated.

Ogygian’s efforts in sprints have been undeniably brilliant and, with his solid pedigree, he has been expected to be equally effective at classic distances. But when he went 1 1/8 miles for the first time in the Dwyer Stakes at Belmont Park last month, his performance was ambiguous at best. Everything was in Ogygian’s favor that day: he was the only speed horse in the field, he was permitted to take an early lead with no pressure, his stretch-running rivals were forced to change their styles to chase him.

Under the circumstances, Ogygian should have blown the field away. He didn’t. He scored a 2-length victory in moderate time, and he seemed to be doing his best.

Ogygian was expected to finish his preparations for the Travers by running in the Jim Dandy Stakes here, but when heavy rain turned the track into a sea of slop, trainer Jan Nerud scratched him. He said the colt doesn’t like mud and runs a risk of hurting himself in it.

Nerud has spent much of his time this week worrying about the weather on Travers day. There were brief showers here Friday, but a weather service forecast put the chances of rain today at only “30 to 40 percent.” Assuming that the track stays fast, Nerud had better worry about whether Ogygian is fit enough for the Travers after missing such a crucial prep race.

“It’s a tremendous obstacle,” the trainer conceded, “but I think he’s good enough to overcome the adversity in his path or I wouldn’t be running him.”

The adversity takes many forms:

-- Ogygian is coming into the Travers after a 42-day absence from competition. His main rivals -- Wise Times, Personal Flag, Danzig Connection and Broad Brush -- all prepared for this race by running in the 1 1/8-mile Haskell Handicap at Monmouth on July 26.

-- Ogygian has never raced around two turns and has never gone the 1-mile Travers distance. His opponents have all been racing at classic distances throughout the spring and summer.

-- Ogygian has never been subjected to tough head-and-head pressure in a distance race. Danzig Connection and Broad Brush battled each other through six furlongs in a sizzling 1:09 2-5 in the Haskell.

Danzig Connection ran the best race at Monmouth, holding on after this suicidal duel to finish only a length behind Wise Times and Personal Flag. But he was probably aided by the sloppy track; he scored his only other major victory in the Belmont Stakes under similar conditions.

If Danzig Connection is strictly a mudder, Personal Flag is the most formidable of the horses coming out of the Haskell. He lost much ground rallying around the turn while Wise Times made his move on the inside. With a bit more racing luck he would have been the winner. He figures to be the most formidable of the challengers in the Travers.

Neither Personal Flag nor any of Ogygian’s rivals is a great horse. But Ogygian will have to be truly great to beat them under the circumstances of the Travers. Most racing fans would love to see him do it, to give a brilliant performance and prove that he is legitimately the bright star of American racing. But if he is a short-priced favorite, as expected, a hard-headed horseplayer would have to bet against him.