ANALYSIS OF TUESDAY’S DRAFT : Some of the Suspense Is Missing, but Many Questions Remain

When it comes to dividing up something they don’t even own, nobody beats the elders of the National Football League.

Once more, in Tuesday’s all-day-and-into-the-night draft, the NFL will allow the cream of the country’s college football players no choice in their destiny.

Once more, as they have for the last half century, the pros will take the players they want, regardless of whether the players want them.

“It’s a plain infringement on a right that other Americans have--the right of free choice,” Leigh Steinberg, the Beverly Hills lawyer-agent, said the other day. “But it’s the NFL system.”

Only every now and then does an uncommonly bold and self-reliant--and extremely talented--prospect fight the system and win.

One year when Stanford’s John Elway rebelled, he won Denver instead of Robert Irsay.

“Self-confidence has always been the key to Elway,” said Gil Brandt, vice president of the Dallas Cowboys.

This year another independent thinker, Oklahoma’s Brian Bosworth, is rebelling. His advisers say that Bosworth has decided to wait for a supplemental draft, which, he trusts, will allow him also to circumvent Irsay, the controversial owner of the Indianapolis Colts.

“There are a dozen (other) teams where he’ll play,” said Bosworth’s representative, Gary Wichard.

Most NFL people, treasuring the draft, identify Bosworth and Elway as insubordinate, if not disloyal.

More conventional is Vinny Testaverde, the passer from Miami of Florida, who announced last year: “I’ll play for any team that wants me.”

Even Irsay’s team, he added, “if necessary.”

Proving as good as his word this month, Testaverde, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, accepted a reported $8.2 million to play the next six years for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who in the final weeks of 1986 beat out Irsay’s Colts for the worst record in pro football.

That qualified Tampa Bay to extend a rich tradition and draft first again. And the club’s owner, Hugh Culverhouse, put his money on the highest ranking quarterback since Elway.

The decisions by Culverhouse and Bosworth have taken the suspense out of Tuesday’s draft.

It’s a toss-up whether Testaverde or Bosworth is the most famous member of the class of 1987. As national celebrities, they are surely 1-2.

As football men, moreover, they are quite possibly also the most gifted in their class--the offensive and defensive players of the year, respectively.

So what’s left?

With Testaverde and Bosworth both out of the news, temporarily, shall we go on with the draft?

The scouts have agreed to. But they disagree on what’s there.

Most say this is another off year for draft prospects. “There aren’t many (future) All-Pros in this class,” Brandt said.

Still, some scouts say it’s an above-average year. The Raiders, for example, call the top eight or nine candidates extraordinary. And they and some others say that the top 75--roughly the first three rounds--form a deep reservoir of talent.

Dick Steinberg, the New England Patriots’ director of player development, represents the majority view.

“This is (the NFL’s) fourth straight below-par draft,” he said. “We haven’t had a good one since 1983, the year of Eric Dickerson, Curt Warner and all the quarterbacks. There are fewer great players at the top in this draft, and fewer good players down the line.”

Representing the contrary minded are, among others, the Raiders and New York Giants.

“I’m excited about this draft,” said Ron Wolf, who heads Raider personnel operations. “The top players are better than top players usually are, and there’s a deepness that you don’t often find.”

The champion Giants agree.

“A lot of good players are coming up in the first three rounds this year,” Harry Hulmes, the Giants’ assistant general manager, said. “When you win (the Super Bowl), you draft 28th, but we expect to get a good one there. We’re happy to pick 28th this year.”

The argument won’t end soon, either. Said Ram Coach John Robinson: “It takes three years to fully evaluate a draft class.”

THE STEROID FACTOR

For the last year or so, the league and its players’ association have both been trying to work out viable positions on the use of steroids--the drugs that build bulk harmfully, in the opinion of many scientists and researchers.

And this year, for the first time, the issue has come up in the draft.

Bosworth, one of football’s leading linebackers, was ruled out of a bowl game this winter when tests showed steroid traces in his system.

Thus, figuring that Bosworth was but one of many involved, some scouts are taking into account the possible effects of steroids on some college players they are evaluating.

Withdrawal leads to shrinkage. If the NFL legislates against steroids, a 275-pound draft choice could become a 245-pound player.

For that reason, backs and receivers, who use steroids infrequently, seem more attractive to some scouts this time than linemen, who are presumed to be the most frequent users.

Dick Steinberg also points to steroids as a possible cause of what he calls the recent decline in blue-chip prospects.

“There’s a feeling that steroids have lately been a big factor in (college football) injuries,” he said.

“We hear that (steroid-influenced) injuries have weeded out a lot of top sophomore and junior class prospects who never get to their senior year (and into the draft).

“As everyone knows, players are getting bigger all the time--but steroids don’t strengthen ligaments and cartilage. The same old ligaments are being asked to hold together players who keep getting bulkier, and it doesn’t always work.”

As a draft-week influence, steroids are clearly gaining on cocaine and marijuana.

“At the (league-wide college football) combine camp a year ago in February, there were 56 (non-steroid) drug cases,” Steinberg said. “This winter there were seven--and three of those were alcohol. The growing problem is steroids.”

THE TOP TEN

NFL scouts and coaches have expressed more agreement than usual this year on the identity of the choicest handful in the 1987 class.

For a year or more, they’ve said that the top three are Testaverde, Bosworth and Bennett, with a few choosing Bennett over Bosworth.

Next, closely bunched on most high-first-round NFL charts, are defensive back Rod Woodson of Purdue, halfback Brent Fullwood of Auburn, fullback Alonzo Highsmith of Testaverde’s Miami team, defensive end Reggie Rogers of Washington, and linebacker Shane Conlan of Penn State.

Leaving Bosworth out of it, the unanimity ends with the top seven. If you saw defensive lineman Jerome Brown on a good day at Miami, you might want to rank him eighth.

Two Carolinians are in the consensus top 10, wide receiver Haywood Jeffires of North Carolina State and offensive lineman Harris Barton of North Carolina.

Said one scout: “I can’t remember when the top bunch has been so evenly matched.”

But are these evenly matched players merely the best of 1987? Or are some of them among the most gifted in years?

“There’s a big drop-off after you get through the first 9 or 10 players,” Steinberg said from New England. “But I don’t see many Hall of Famers in that top 10, either.”

At the Raider camp, from a different perspective, Wolf sees more than one Hall of Fame prospect.

“The popular (phrase) is franchise player,” Wolf said. “And I think Testaverde, Bennett and Bosworth are all franchise players. Rogers has that capability. So does Conlan. So do those two backs (Fullwood and Highsmith). Jerome Brown can be a franchise player. As for Woodson, he’s the best corner(back) to come up since Mike Haynes.”

DEEP AND SHALLOW

The scouts make these other points about the class of 1987:

--Never have so many quality linebackers come up the same year. Three of the six best players in the draft are linebackers. Two others, Mike Junkin of Duke and Tony Woods of Pitt, could go in the first round. Stanford’s Dave Wyman and others are close.

--In contrast, the quality seems limited to one tight end, Rod Bernstine of Texas A&M; one defensive back, Woodson of Purdue; one center, Gregg Rakoczy of Miami, and, they say, one wide receiver, Jeffires of North Carolina State.

--The talent of Testaverde gives the rest of the quarterback class a shallow look. But the demand at the position is so extensive that two other quarterbacks could be named in the first round--Chris Miller of Oregon and Kelly Stouffer of Colorado State. Some interest has been expressed in Jim Harbaugh of Michigan, Kevin Sweeney of Fresno State, John Paye of Stanford, Steve Beuerlein of Notre Dame, Jeff Van Raaphorst of Arizona State and a few others.

--USC has three high-round prospects, defensive backs Louis Brock and Tim McDonald, and guard Jeff Bregel. Mid-round Trojan candidates: linebacker Ron Brown, tight end Erik McKee, fullback Todd Steele and safety Junior Thurman. Others: kicker Don Shafer, offensive lineman Bruce Parks and injured linebacker Sam Anno.

--UCLA, which will return to the draft spotlight next year with running back Gaston Green and linebacker Ken Norton, has some mid-round candidates this time: tight end Derek Tennell, defensive tackle Frank Batchkoff, center Joe Goebel and cornerback Chuckie Miller. Others: fullback Marcus Greenwood, safety Craig Rutledge, guard Jim Alexander and quarterback Matt Stevens.

FIRST-ROUND DRAFT PRIORITIES No.: 1 Team: Tampa Bay Position: Quarterback Comment: Signed Vinny Testaverde, so they got one. No.: 2 Team: Indianapolis Position: Outside LB Comment: Already negotiating with Cornelius Bennett of Alabama. No.: 3 Team: Buffalo Position: Guessing game Comment: DE Reggie Rogers of Washington? No.: 4 Team: Green Bay Position: Character pick Comment: OLB Shane Conlan of Penn State? No.: 5 Team: San Diego Position: Running back Comment: Probably Brent Fullwood, or perhaps Alonzo Highsmith No.: 6 Team: St. Louis Position: Running back Comment: Fullwood if he’s there, or CB Rod Woodson of Purdue No.: 7 Team: Detroit Position: Defensive line Comment: Jerome Brown of Miami? No.: 8 Team: Houston Position: FB or pass rusher Comment: Highsmith, if available No.: 9 Team: Philadelphia Position: Defensive line Comment: DE Shawn Knight of BYU or OT John Clay of Missouri No.: 10 Team: Pittsburgh Position: Running back Comment: D.J. Dozier of Penn State? No.: 11 Team: New Orleans Position: FB, WR Comment: May take OT Harris Barton of North Carolina. No.: 12 Team: Dallas Position: Defensive line Comment: Gil Brandt swears it won’t be Nebraska DT Danny Noonan, so everyone is sure it will be. No.: 13 Team: Atlanta Position: QB and RB Comment: Kelly Stouffer of Colorado State? No.: 14 Team: Miami Position: Defensive line Comment: DE Jason Buck of Brigham Young? No.: 15 Team: Raiders Position: OT and QB Comment: Clay, Barton, Stouffer or Chris Miller No.: 16 Team: Minnesota Position: RB, DT, OLB, FS Comment: Looking for a big back No.: 17 Team: Cincinnati Position: DE, CB, ILB Comment: DE John Bosa of Boston College? No.: 18 Team: Seattle Position: Inside LB Comment: Mike Junkin of Duke? No.: 19 Team: Kansas City Position: Running back Comment: Roger Vick of Texas A&M;? No.: 20 Team: Houston Position: FB, pass rusher Comment: A long shot for Christian Okoye (from Rams) of Azusa Pacific. No.: 21 Team: New York Jets Position: Pass rusher Comment: All their old ones got hurt last season. No.: 22 Team: San Francisco Position: LB, CB, RB Comment: Paul Palmer of Temple? No.: 23 Team: New England Position: DE, NT Comment: Couldn’t stop run last season. No.: 24 Team: Cleveland Position: DE, RB Comment: Would like a game-breaker back. No.: 25 Team: San Francisco (from Redskins) Position: See No. 22 Comment: Another chance for Okoye? No.: 26 Team: Chicago Position: DE, WR Comment: Mark Ingram of Michigan St.? No.: 27 Team: Denver Position: FB, OL Comment: OT Bruce Armstrong of Louisville? No.: 28 Team: New York Giants Position: WR, DB Comment: WR Ricky Nattiel of Florida? THE TOP 30 ATHLETES

Theoretically, there are again two ways for the scouts and coaches of the 28 pro clubs to proceed this year in the college draft:

--They can identify the nation’s best players and draft them in order of excellence, 1 through 336.

--Or, before selecting, they can factor in club weaknesses, strengths, and needs.

In practice, almost every NFL team does it the second way. They all agree, however, that if football skill was the single consideration, Tuesday’s first round would have a different look.

Question: Judging the candidates only on their ability to play good football, who are the class of the Class of 1987?

Consensus Answer: The scouts say these are the top 30.

No.: 1 Player: Vinny Testaverde Position: Quarterback School: Miami (Fla.) Comment: Best since Marino and Elway, has already signed with Tampa Bay Buccaneers. No.: 2 Player: Brian Bosworth Position: Linebacker School: Oklahoma Comment: The irregular Sooner, sitting this one out, wants to go to a different team in the NFL supplemental draft. No.: 3 Player: Cornelius Bennett Position: Linebacker School: Alabama Comment: Has the speed and football instincts to turn around a weak defensive team that gets him drafting this high. No.: 4 Player: Rod Woodson Position: Defensive back School: Purdue Comment: Best athlete in the draft. World-class hurdler who can play wide receiver as well as running back and also return kicks. No.: 5 Player: Brent Fullwood Position: Running back School: Auburn Comment: Some coaches call Bo Jackson’s old backup a better pro prospect than Jackson. A 210-pound sprinter-slasher. Fullwood averaged 8.3 last year as Bo’s successor. No.: 6 Player: Alonzo Highsmith Position: Fullback School: Miami (Fla.) Comment: Instant 240-pound starter. His kind of quality is rarely found in a natural fullback. No.: 7 Player: Shane Conlan Position: Linebacker School: Penn St. Comment: The 1987 model from an old linebacker factory. At 6-2 and 225, he has everything but great size. No.: 8 Player: Reggie Rogers Position: Defensive end School: Washington Comment: The late Don Rogers’ kid brother is a converted basketball player who, at 6-6 and 270, has linebacker agility. No.: 9 Player: Jerome Brown Position: Defensive tackle School: Miami (Fla.) Comment: Quickest of the five top-ranked defensive linemen in this draft, all projected as NFL starters. No.: 10 Player: Haywood Jeffires Position: Wide receiver School: North Carolina St. Comment: “Call me Jeffries.” Ex-high school basketball star has size (6-2, 195) and 4.5 speed. No.: 11 Player: Harris Barton Position: Offensive tackle School: North Carolina Comment: Versatile, coachable. He has emerged recently as the draft’s top offensive lineman. No.: 12 Player: D.J. Dozier Position: Running back School: Penn St. Comment: Valuable overachiever. No.: 13 Player: Mike Junkin Position: Linebacker School: Duke Comment: His history is playing well hurt. No.: 14 Player: Rod Bernstine Position: Tight end School: Texas A&M; Comment: Only quality H-back (tight end / running back) in the draft. No.: 15 Player: Danny Noonan Position: Defensive lineman School: Nebraska Comment: Might be the NFL’s fastest nose tackle. No.: 16 Player: John Clay Position: Offensive tackle School: Missouri Comment: Has weight problem, but there’s a demand for 300-pound blockers who can move. No.: 17 Player: Mark Ingram Position: Wide receiver School: Michigan St. Comment: On the level after Jeffires, there are four receivers are perceived to be about even--Ingram, Charles Lockett, Lonzell Hill and Ricky Nattiel--and others are close. So none may be drafted high by teams reasoning they can get comparable quality later. No.: 18 Player: Tony Woods Position: Linebacker School: Pitt Comment: Projected Karl Mecklenburg rover type. No.: 19 Player: Shawn Knight Position: Defensive lineman School: BYU Comment: Bigger and stronger than Jason Buck, but not the athlete. No.: 20 Player: Chris Miller Position: Quarterback School: Oregon Comment: Best passer still on the board. No.: 21 Player: Roger Vick Position: Running back School: Texas A&M; Comment: The pros love steady, tough fullbacks. No.: 22 Player: Jason Buck Position: Defensive lineman School: BYU Comment: Outland Trophy winner has been strangely shrinking lately. In size and scouts’ estimation. No.: 23 Player: Paul Palmer Position: Running back School: Temple Comment: Some consider him a Joe Morris or James Brooks type runner. No.: 24 Player: Randy Dixon Position: Defensive tackle School: Pitt Comment: Has some potential in an off year for offensive linemen. No.: 25 Player: Louis Brock Position: Cornerback School: USC Comment: Lou’s son is one of the two best defensive backs in the draft. No.: 26 Player: Gregg Rakoczy Position: Center School: Miami (Fla.) Comment: Big (300 pounds) and versatile. No.: 27 Player: Charles Lockett Position: Wide receiver School: CS Long Beach Comment: Insured for $1 million against injury by Lloyds of London. No.: 28 Player: Jeff Bregel Position: Offensive lineman School: USC Comment: Has first-round power. No.: 29 Player: Lonzell Hill Position: Wide receiver School: Washington Comment: Close in ability with previously mentioned receivers. No.: 30 Player: Kelly Stouffer Position: Quarterback School: Colorado St. Comment: East-West Shrine game MVP.