The Times San Diego County Poll : S.D. Voters Undecided on Growth Propositions

With only three weeks remaining before the election, a Los Angeles Times poll has found that two-thirds of the likely voters in San Diego are undecided about two major growth-control propositions on the city ballot, a finding that suggests the two measures face an uphill battle.

Despite months of often acrimonious public debate over the controversial proposals, the poll found that 79% of likely voters are still undecided about Proposition J, a citizen-sponsored growth initiative. On Proposition H, an alternative growth measure sponsored by the San Diego City Council, the undecided figure was 65%. In both cases, a majority of voters said they had not heard enough about the proposals to make a decision.

Even though voters showed a high degree of indecision and lack of awareness about the Nov. 8 ballot propositions, the poll found that more than two-thirds of those queried expressed strong support for growth restrictions in general, even if such measures may harm the city’s economy.

Bad Omen for Both

Political consultants and other analysts said Tuesday that the large number of undecided voters found by the Times poll may not bode well for the passage of either measure on next month’s ballot. They said two major factors--voters’ tendency to vote against confusing ballot issues and opponents’ heavy outspending of supporters--suggest that the undecided voters are more likely to ultimately end up in the “no” column.

Among likely voters who have made a decision on the two measures, supporters and opponents are evenly divided as the campaign enters its final weeks, favoring Proposition H by a slim 40%-37% margin and deadlocking on Proposition J, 38%-38%, the poll found.

However, to put those figures in perspective, it must be remembered that the people who have already made a decision on the growth propositions reflect a third or less of likely voters.

The poll also showed that most San Diegans believe developers have the most influence on the question of local growth. Indeed, those polled said developers have twice as much impact as average citizens and almost three times as much influence as the City Council in determining San Diego’s rate of growth.

Among likely voters, 33% cited developers as the most influential group on growth matters, followed by business leaders (18%) and city residents (16%). Twelve percent described the council as the most influential group, while only 3% of those polled felt that Mayor Maureen O’Connor has the most impact on growth issues.

The Times poll is based on telephone interviews conducted Saturday of 593 registered voters in the city of San Diego, 425 of whom were likely voters. The poll’s margin of sampling error is plus or minus six percentage points.

Protracted Debate

Based on the poll’s findings, the protracted growth-management debate involving the two propositions--and extensive news media coverage of that debate--apparently has either been largely ignored by the public or has simply served to further confuse an already complex subject.

Asked for their general impressions of Propositions H and J, 53% and 67%, respectively, of likely voters said they had not heard enough about the measures to make a decision. Among all registered voters--including those whose past voting records suggest they may not bother going to the polls next month--the levels of unawareness were slightly higher: 56% on Proposition H and 70% on Proposition J.

In addition to those who had not heard enough to make a decision, another group of voters said they had heard enough but remained undecided. The poll found 12% of the likely voters in this category, raising the total undecided vote to 65% for Proposition H and 79% for Proposition J.

Times pollster I. A. Lewis described the large number of voters who were either unfamiliar or undecided about the propositions as “high but not all that surprising” in light of the measures’ complexity.

Both propositions would establish annual limits on residential development, restrict construction on environmentally sensitive lands such as hillsides and wetlands, and set environmental goals or standards dealing with such things as water quality and traffic congestion. Of the two measures, the citizens initiative, Proposition J, is generally regarded as the more stringent.

“These are two terribly complex measures,” Lewis said. “It may be that people are going to wait until the last weekend (before the election) to sit down with their voter booklet to try to sort things out.”

‘Still Very Confusing’

Interviews with some of the poll’s respondents reinforce that interpretation of the statistics.

“I’ve read my voter booklet twice now and it’s still very confusing,” said Mabel Rogers of Clairemont. “I’ve thought about it and brooded over this for several days, but I’m afraid I’ll have to do some more reading and thinking before deciding. It’s extremely complicated.”

Similarly, John Kutten of East San Diego said he feels that “something has to be done” about growth, but added, “I don’t know what it is or which of these (propositions) might be the better answer.”

Proposition J supporters attributed the large undecided finding in part to what they see as the building industry’s attempts to muddy the issue in the hope that voters’ confusion will prompt them to reject both measures.

From the perspective of Citizens for Limited Growth, the citizens group that collected nearly 66,000 valid signatures to qualify Proposition J for the ballot, the City Council acted as an accomplice--willing or unwilling--in that strategy by placing its alternative measure on the ballot.

“The building industry, through their cleverly named front group, San Diegans for Regional Traffic Solutions, is showing some degree of success in confusing the voters,” said Richard Carson, an assistant professor of economics at UC San Diego and one of the leaders of the citizens group. “What you see is a situation where the voters strongly want growth control, and now the building industry is invoking fear and doubt by putting forth outright lies and misleading statements.”

Warnings About Jobs

In brochures mailed to voters, the building industry has warned that as many as 50,000 jobs will be lost and that housing costs and rents will skyrocket if Proposition J passes. Supporters of the measure contend that those estimates grossly exaggerate its likely economic impact.

Building industry representatives, however, argued that the poll findings reinforce their contention that, while many San Diegans strongly favor the concept of slow growth, voters believe that neither proposition offers the proper solutions to the problems created by rapid development.

“With the results you’re getting, they’re telling the initiative gatherers as well as the ballot measure-makers to go back and do it right,” said Jean Andrews, political consultant for San Diegans for Regional Traffic Solutions. “I’m pleased, and I think our campaign is getting its message out. It’s really a close election. I think things have moved, and they’ve moved in our direction.”

Various findings from the poll bolster Andrews’ argument. Asked whether they favor limiting development, “even if that may hurt business and result in the loss of some jobs in San Diego,” 70% of likely voters responded favorably. In contrast, only 22% said they favor growth “even if that may have an undesirable effect on living conditions and the quality of life in San Diego.”

When the identical question was asked of likely voters during another Times poll last May, the pro-growth control position was favored by an even wider margin, 78% to 18%.

However, only 50% of those who expressed a preference for growth controls in general also voiced support for Propositions H and J--a drop-off of 20 percentage points.

Worse for Proponents

Conventional political yardsticks, combined with other specifics about this race, suggest that proponents of Propositions H and J should be more alarmed about the large number of undecided voters than opponents, according to Sherry Jeffe, a political scientist formerly at USC.

“When voters are confused, they tend to lean toward the ‘no’ side, preferring to stay with the status quo,” Jeffe said. “There are estimates that there’s a built-in 20% ‘no’ vote on most propositions just for that reason.”

The huge disparity in the two sides’ campaign budgets also lessens Proposition J supporters’ chances of attracting those undecided voters, Jeffe said. The building industry, which expects to spend between $1 million and $2 million, has out-raised the citizens group more than 30 to 1 since July, and is expected to continue to dramatically outspend supporters in the closing days.

Acknowledging that CLG’s battle is “definitely uphill right now,” Carson admitted that the campaign spending gap between the two sides puts his group at a substantial disadvantage.

“It’s disheartening that the building industry has so much money to overwhelm the public with in the last weeks of the campaign, given that there is such a large group of people who say that they’re relatively uninformed in the campaign,” Carson said. “There’s just no doubt that that much money hurts our chances.”

Further evidence of voters’ apparent confusion or unfamiliarity with the two competing propositions can be seen in the fact that relatively few of those polled were able to specify the major differences between the measures.

Unsure of Differences

Of likely voters, 78% said they were not sure of the main difference between Propositions H and J, while another 11% said they saw no difference. Only 1% pointed to the most basic difference--namely, that the citizens version is stricter than that of the council.

Mayor O’Connor, in a statement from her press secretary, Paul Downey, predicted that, despite the poll’s findings of widespread voter confusion, voters ultimately will not sit out the growth referendums or vote “no” on both.

“It’s a matter of hopefully getting out the information and answering the questions the people have on H, and trying to convince them that it is the better measure,” Downey said.

Not surprisingly, homeowners expressed stronger support for both propositions than did renters, probably because renters potentially have more to lose from rising rents or housing costs. Among those who had reached an opinion on the measures, homeowners favored Proposition H 45% to 32%, while renters opposed the measure by the same margin. In regard to Proposition J, homeowners were for the measure by a 43%-32% margin, while renters opposed it 48% to 29%.

“It’s the ‘I’ve-got-mine syndrome,’ ” said analyst Jeffe.

Age or gender did not have a significant impact on voters’ positions, although support for the two measures generally was highest among the better educated. For example, while high school dropouts opposed Proposition J 49% to 23%, people who had attended college favored it 42% to 39%. Racial breakdowns of the respondents were too small to draw conclusions.

OPINIONS ON GROWTH CONTROL MEASURES

1. What is your impression of Proposition J, known as the Quality of Life Initiative?

Haven’t heard enough about it 67%

Favorable 12%

Unfavorable 9%

Don’t know 11%

2. What is your impression of Proposition H, known as the Growth Management Plan ballot measure?

Haven’t heard enough about it 53%

Favorable 20%

Unfavorable 15%

Don’t know 12%

3. Are you in favor of slowing down growth and limiting development--even if that may hurt business and result in the loss of some jobs in San Diego--or are you in favor of growth and economic development--even if that may have undesirable effects on living conditions and the quality of life in San Diego?

Favor limits 70%

Favor growth 22%

Don’t know 8%

4. Generally speaking, which of the following have the most influence on the question of growth in San Diego?

Developers 33%

Business leaders 18%

Residents of city of San Diego16%

San Diego City Council 12%

Mayor Maureen O’Connor 3%

Environmentalists 1%

No group has any influence 2%

Haven’t heard enough about the issue 6%

Don’t know 9%

Source: Los Angeles Times Poll.