Experts Rate Vote Outlook --It’s Apathy Hands Down

Spurred by fear that predicting a low voter turnout would only increase the apathy level at the polls today, the Los Angeles city clerk’s office decided to forgo its traditional election eve projection, a spokesman said Monday.

But consultants to candidates in the handful of contests to be decided and other political experts said they would not be surprised if the Los Angeles runoff election sets a record for low turnout. With just one City Council contest, two school board seats and two Community College board offices on the ballot, turnout could drop below the 8.63% record low set in 1983, the experts said.

The April 11 primary, in which just 24.33% of the city’s eligible voters went to the polls, set a record for a mayoral primary, the city clerk’s office records showed.

Few Areas Involved

Only two of the contests--those for the community college board--will be decided districtwide. The hottest contests--Councilman Ernani Bernardi’s challenge from firefighter Lyle Hall in the east San Fernando Valley’s 7th District and school board races in the west Valley and the Westside--will be decided only by voters in those areas.

Consultants in the Bernardi-Hall contest expect a turnout in the district ranging from 12% to 18%. In the two races for seats on the Board of Education, turnout is expected to be higher than the city average but lower than in the council race--probably in the 10% to 12% range, campaign consultants said.

The consultants said most voters have little or no interest in school issues. Only about 11% of registered voters have school-age children.

Demographics Cited

“The people most demographically likely to have kids, are demographically less likely to vote,” said Parke Skelton, campaign consultant to school board incumbent Julie Korenstein of the Valley’s 4th District. Korenstein is challenged by school Principal Jerry Horowitz. Skelton said families with children tend to be younger, more mobile and lack roots in a community--all factors which reduce likelihood of voting.

Such small turnouts can significantly skew the nature of the electorate and the outcome, said Bruce Cain, professor of political science at Caltech.

In the Westside school board district, for instance, there are 7,000 teachers registered to vote, said Rick Taylor, a consultant to Mark Slavkin, a teachers’ union backed challenger to incumbent Alan Gershman of the 2nd District.

If most of the teachers vote, “and bring along their spouses or significant others,” they could represent about 30% of the 30,000 total votes projected to be cast in the race, Taylor said.

While the percentage of voters going to the polls could reach as high as 18% in the 7th Council District, it could also hit as low as 3% or 4% in South-Central Los Angeles or San Pedro, where only the community college races are on the ballot.

Community college board candidates face the traditional apathy of school board hopefuls, but have the additional hurdle of running citywide.

Regardless of today’s turnout, the costs of an election remain constant.

City Clerk Elias Martinez said that under state law, he is required to fully staff 2,800 polling places and have a ballot available for every registered voter, even though it is unlikely they will show up. Cost to the city will be about $2 million. If only 10%, or 180,000, of the city’s eligible voters show up at the polls today, that would be a cost of more than $10 for each ballot cast.

VOTER INFORMATION Los Angeles voters go to the polls today to choose a City Council member for the 7th District and two members each for the Board of Education and the Community College District. (Polling information: (213) 485-3581.)

Also today, the city of Compton will choose a mayor and a 3rd District City Council member. (Polling information: (213) 605-5530.) Inglewood voters will elect two council members and a school board member. (Polling information: (213) 412-5280.)

In other elections, residents in the South Pasadena Unified School District will vote on a ballot measure to increase taxes for school improvements. A similar bond measure will be presented to Lancaster-area residents in the Westside Union School District. Also, voters in the Three Valleys Municipal Water District in the eastern San Gabriel Valley will choose a director for Division 6. (Polling information: (213) 727-1900.)

Inglewood polls are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. All others are open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.