Horse Racing : Lukas Gets Mixed Reviews in Author’s Statistical Analysis

In terms of statistics, racing has no equal, not even baseball. So when a writer attempts a statistical analysis of the 10 years trainer Wayne Lukas has been spending millions of dollars at the world’s most expensive horse sales, the betting is less than even money that the book will be one long bore.

But Joe Bagan shouldn’t be prejudged. In his “Lukas at Auction,” Bagan goes on and on and on--for almost 350 pages--about the premium horses that the trainer has bought and sold for his clients over the last decade, and manages to be interesting.

After all that research, a writer might be expected to either behead or canonize racing’s most controversial figure, but instead Bagan comes to the smartest conclusion: He gives Lukas mixed reviews, which is better than he usually fares with reporters, and concludes that as a trafficker in horseflesh, he’s a better salesman than he is a buyer.

In fact, in the end of the book Bagan says that if Lukas hadn’t sold off some of his horses as stallions at fancy prices, his coast-to-coast operation wouldn’t be showing a profit.

Gene Klein, one of Lukas’ biggest bankrolling patrons during most of the trainer’s regime, said about the same thing last month, after announcing that he was leaving racing.

“Did I make any money?” Klein said. “That will depend on what I sell the horses for when I get out in November.”

In painstaking detail, Bagan traces the 289 horses that Lukas has bought since he first arrived at a Keeneland auction in 1979. The author says that only 34 earned more on the track than it cost to buy them, and only 23 of those would show a profit after training costs are factored in. Excluded, of course, are young horses purchased in recent years that are either still running or haven’t appeared yet.

Without the breeding syndications of Saratoga Six, Tank’s Prospect, Capote, Pancho Villa, Mt. Livermore and Life’s Magic, the book says that Lukas’ operation would show a loss of about $22 million. With those syndications--headed by Saratoga Six and Tank’s Prospect at $16 million apiece--the profit is estimated to be $37 million.

Bagan concedes, however, that finite totals are difficult to obtain. For example, Landaluce, the undefeated filly who died before she became a 3-year-old, was insured for $3 million and other insurance settlements would also be part of the overall picture. Other things Bagan doesn’t know is how much money actually changed hands during the attempts that were made to sell Lady’s Secret, the only Lukas horse elected horse of the year.

For the Lukas fanatic, all the public facts are here, and even the subject of the book commends Bagan for his diligence.

“I’ve just glanced at it but my accountant went over it thoroughly and said everything’s in order, except for a few small points,” Lukas said. “The guy did his homework.”

Of the six yearlings that Lukas bought for $1 million or more, one never raced and the most expensive--Houston--seems to have dropped out of sight after running eighth in the Kentucky Derby and sixth in the Preakness.

Moon Light Miracle, a filly by Northern Dancer that Lukas bought for $2.5 million in 1985, never made it to the track. Houston, who cost $2.9 million, is at Belmont Park, and Lukas said recently that the colt has gained 200 pounds and will be running again this month.

Based on his track-record :56 4/5 for five furlongs on May 18, Magical Mile has been designated as the best 2-year-old to run at Hollywood Park this season.

Next best may be Burnt Hills, a son of Conquistador Cielo who ran six furlongs in 1:09 3/5, winning by three lengths, in his second start.

Trainer Bobby Frankel bought Burnt Hills for $60,000 at an auction of unraced 2-year-olds in Florida. In his first start, at Hollywood on June 19, Burnt Hills was overtaken by Forty Niner Days and lost by a nose.

Conquistador Cielo won the Belmont Stakes in 1982 and was voted horse of the year.

Frankel said: “Many of his (offspring) have been bummers, although he did have that Conquistarose, who wasn’t too bad, a few years ago. Maybe this one will turn out to be something.”

Chris Antley, the leading jockey in New York, had a holiday worth forgetting at Belmont Park.

On Monday, Antley rode Nite of Fun as they beat heavily favored Open Mind by a nose in the Coaching Club American Oaks, only to be disqualified by the stewards for interference in the stretch.

On Tuesday, Antley rode Triteamtri in the Suburban Handicap, and the horse stumbled at the start, unseating his rider.

The disqualification of Nite of Fun, a 22-1 shot, apparently was not a tough call for the stewards.

“I knew I was coming down,” Antley said.

Ted Sabarese, who owned the most stakes-winning horses in New York in 1983-84, has filed for bankruptcy in New Jersey.

The stock of Sabarese’s computer systems company plunged and in court papers he listed assets of $18 million and liabilities of $30 million. Sabarese said that his racing debts total more than $1 million, including $250,000 to his trainer, John Parisella.

Of the 30 horses that Sabarese has left, the best is Simply Majestic, who was virtually unbeatable at Golden Gate Fields. Simply Majestic has earned $1.2 million.

Horse Racing Notes

Open Mind has won 11 of 13 starts. She suffered her only defeats when she ran second in successive races as a 2-year-old in the third and fourth starts of her career. Ms. Gold Pole beat her by 4 1/2 lengths at Laurel last September and a month later, Some Romance, Open Mind’s stablemate, nosed her out in the Frizette at Belmont Park. . . . Our Native Wish is a 4-year-old colt who spaces his victories. When he won at Hollywood Park last Saturday, it was only his second victory in 42 starts. Last year, he was one for 25. But the horse is always close. He has had nine seconds and 13 thirds in his career.

On Saturday night, Rebs Limits, who was claimed out of a maiden race for $5,000 a month ago, won the $70,000 Gold Rush Derby for quarter horses at Los Alamitos. . . . An analysis by the Thoroughbred Times rated the Santa Anita Derby as the best prep race this year for the Kentucky Derby. . . . The major races at Del Mar this season are the Eddie Read Handicap on Aug. 13, the Ramona Handicap on Aug. 19 and the Del Mar Futurity on Sept. 13, closing day. The 43-day season opens on July 26.

The Oak Tree Invitational, which has been a $400,000 race, will be worth $500,000 when it’s run at Santa Anita next Oct. 14. . . . Chris Davenport, who won her first race at Hollywood Park on Monday, is a 23-year-old graduate of Ohio State. She won the first race of her career last Dec. 24 at Caliente.