Is San Diego Safer Than San Francisco in a Quake? : Optimism: The answer is probably yes, some experts say, because San Diego’s buildings and freeways are newer.

Jack Argent, assistant manager of San Diego Jack Murphy Stadium, remembers a Beach Boys concert half a dozen years ago that caused so much rock-’n’-roll ruckus that the upper decks began to sway.

“It was very a noticeable movement,” he said.

Engineers later examined the structure for cracks or spalling in the rafters that could have set the outdoor arena to rumbling.

“We found out that the facility itself was designed with that in mind,” Argent said. “It was made in three separate sections. It has seismic joints and expansion joints at every section. It’s as safe as anywhere else in town.”

That kind of optimism--that even if a major earthquake struck San Diego, San Diego could weather the worst--is held by many local officials with expertise in disaster preparedness.

In the Bay Area, many older and brick homes crumbled, a two-tiered freeway flattened and a section of the Bay Bridge collapsed. In San Diego, where many of the structures are newer and there are no double-decker highways, officials believe the infrastructure for the most part would hold in place.

“I’m pretty confident in the structures in San Diego,” said Bruce Westermo, an earthquake engineer at San Diego State University. “The town is a little bit newer than San Francisco, and all of our newer buildings were built to code. We have a pretty good level of construction.”

But he said that a quake larger than the 6.9 temblor that struck the Bay Area could bring down its own kind of destruction in San Diego:

* If the San Diego-Coronado Bay Bridge, which arches high over San Diego Bay, collapsed and fell into the water, it still would not block Navy ships from exiting the bay because the major bridge sections are “designed to float.”

“They’re hollow-box girders,” Westermo said.

* Landfill areas--such as Shelter Island, Harbor Island and parts of Lindbergh Field and the Naval Air Station on North Island might be hit with “liquefaction.”

“If acceleration is high enough, it vibrates the soil,” said Westermo. “Water will get pulled up into the soil, which weakens it.”

* Utility lines could burst, the water system might be lost, and some roadways blocked.

“Unless they’re new, they’re fairly vulnerable,” Westermo said. “We’ll also lose a good portion of our water supply, and roads might be lost for a while. But we’re not as dependent upon roads and bridges as San Francisco.”

But even this degree of damage, he said, would be far from what could happen across the border in Tijuana.

Grim Outlook in Tijuana

“For the same level of shaking as us, they’d definitely suffer more damage,” Westermo said. “They are probably not able to put as much (money) into earthquake preparedness. Their building codes are similar to ours but whether (buildings) meet code is another thing.”

Daniel Eberle, director of the San Diego County Office of Disaster Preparedness, said a special San Diego task force of building officials, disaster coordinators and geologists will issue new recommendations soon on whether the county’s building codes should be upgraded so that structures can handle 25% more lateral movement in a major earth tremor.

But Eberle said many of San Diego’s high rises--in the downtown and along Mission Valley--could already withstand a big juggernaut.

“You may get some swaying in those buildings,” he said. “But the real problem would be bookcases not bolted to the wall, light fixtures, those kinds of things that are not safely anchored.”

He said the buildings most likely to crumble would be about 800 brick or masonry structures in the older parts of San Diego, built years ago without cement or reinforcement bars.

He said area disaster officials “are assuming” that the county’s transportation network would hold up, that “the overpasses and bridges won’t fall.” But he conceded that any type of major disaster would cause severe traffic gridlock as people attempted to flee.

Eberle also voiced concern about the area’s communication system going dead. “If you don’t have communication, you don’t have anything,” he said.

Water Shortage Possible

For instance Irving Katz, director of research for Thomas Green/San Diego Securities, said the lack of a dial tone could prove disastrous to business.

“You sell and buy stocks on the telephone, so if the phones go down, you have no communications with New York where most of the stocks are traded,” said “But selling stocks during an earthquake is ridiculous anyway. It’s like selling stocks during a panic.”

Water shortages are also possible.

Water distributed by the San Diego County Water Authority arrives from Northern California and out-of-state sources through five main pipelines that range from 4 to 10 feet in diameter, according to spokesman Jim Melton.

Should an earthquake occur, the CWA would initiate a series of electronic and physical inspections to determine if the pipelines had cracked or ruptured. Automatic or hand-operated valves can shut off the flow of water through pipelines that have burst.

Melton said water pipelines, unlike the smaller water mains buried beneath city streets, tend not to break during earthquakes. They usually bend with the Earth’s movement, although a major earthquake in a nearby fault probably would cause damage, Melton said.

“We have a lot of confidence in our ability to react to emergencies,” he said. “We have a very detailed emergency plan. It establishes what’s to be done and who’s to do it.”

Likewise, although the San Diego Gas & Electric gas system would face “the same kind of problems” as those that hit in Northern California, “our system is a little newer than theirs,” said SDG&E; Senior Vice President Al Davis.

SDG&E; in recent years has been replacing its older cast-iron distribution system with pipes made of steel or a tough and flexible plastic material. The plastic pipes, which have been installed throughout the downtown, “can be squeezed shut, and they’ll simply pop back” into shape, Davis said.

The San Diego utility also is spending $10 million to upgrade its radio communications system, a move that should help SDG&E; repair crews respond more quickly.

Davis said the San Onofre nuclear plant in northern San Diego County, which is 10% owned by SDG&E;, was “designed to withstand the kind of quake they had” in Northern California.

Navy officials in the San Diego area also feel adequately braced for a major earthquake.

Navy Would Use Helicopters

Liquefaction would be the major problem at North Island Naval Station, where about 25% of the installation sits on landfill, according to Ken Mitchell, a base spokesman. However, since shortly after World War II, the Navy has been building its structures “above earthquake standards,” Mitchell said.

If a major earthquake were to occur, the county’s Navy bases would deploy their fleet of helicopters to shuttle people around. Navy and Marine Corps bases would utilize extensive communications systems to bypass commercial telephone networks.

Cranes and other heavy machinery at the Coronado base would be fired up to load and unload ships. Navy Seabees and civilian construction personnel would use bulldozers and other equipment to repair buildings, air strips and any damaged utilities.

If the San Diego-Coronado Bay Bridge were destroyed or declared unsafe, personnel would be ferried to the base from a pier in downtown San Diego, Mitchell said.

And, Mitchell said, “we’ve got the cranes, helicopters and trained personnel to help the civilian sector once we’ve taken care of the base.”

Many of San Diego’s large companies have their own emergency preparedness plans.