COMMENTARY : One Rule of Thumb Keeps the Madness of March in Perspective

The absolute maddest thing about March Madness is not the games themselves but trying to pick the winners and fill out the NCAA tournament brackets without looking like a fool three weeks from now.

Before we proceed, let’s establish one rule of thumb: Pick upsets. In the past seven years only two No. 1 seeds have won the championship--Georgetown and Indiana. And from 1983 to 1988 at least one team seeded sixth or lower reached the Final Four, with three of those teams (North Carolina State, Villanova and Kansas) winning the championship. Also keep in mind that the person about to make these logical arguments picked Denver to win the Super Bowl.

This is a rare year, in that there are no overwhelming favorites. After the first round, no upset should be that shocking because no team in the country, including the No. 1 seeds, is that good.

With that, let’s pick the high seeds that will be gone, out of here, bye-bye before the Final Four: In the Southeast, the most glamorous region, second-seeded Syracuse has perhaps the two best players in the country in Derrick Coleman and Billy Owens. But Syracuse is weak at point guard, and tournament play is all about guards. Look for the Orangemen to fall to Virginia in the second round.

Missouri, the third seed, is the biggest disappointment in the country the last two weeks and shows no sign of recovering. Anybody who loses to Notre Dame by 31 isn’t long for this tournament. Louisiana State isn’t seeded that highly, but the Tigers are out of here too. Villanova lives to beat big underachievers like LSU.

In the Midwest, let’s immediately dismiss No. 2 seed Purdue, which often has good teams but always flops at tournament time. Georgetown isn’t playing well at all (4-4 since Feb. 15), but we can’t see the Hoyas losing to Texas Southern, Kansas State or Xavier, the teams it would run up against the first two games. When Georgetown loses in the tournament, it’s never to a chump.

We’d like to dismiss Oklahoma; boy, would we like to dismiss the cocky Sooners. Loud Billy Tubbs and the Sooners spent Monday trying to figure out who Towson State is. “What conference are they in?” Tubbs asked. Fact is, Oklahoma is playing too well right now to do anything but earn respect. But it’s hard to see them in Denver at the Final Four.

The East has plenty of big-name teams, but few of them are playing well. Connecticut is the story of the year, but Connecticut is not Seton Hall, as many are suggesting. The Hall, when it advanced to last year’s title game, had 12 juniors and seniors; the Hall had big guys; the Hall had been to the tournament the previous year; and the Hall got shipped west. Connecticut has young guys, little guys and hasn’t been to the tournament. Being the No. 1 seed in the East is the kiss of death: No top seed in the East has won it all since the 1982 North Carolina team of Michael Jordan, James Worthy and Sam Perkins.

Duke has lost four of its last six, guard Phil Henderson ripped his teammates and the Blue Devils appear finished. This is a team, however, that plays brilliantly in the tournament and could be a dismissal we live to regret.

Now, for the teams we do like: The West, the best region of the four, has very impressive seeds one through four--UNLV, Arizona, Michigan and Louisville--and is stocked with feisty lower seeds, including New Mexico State, Providence and Loyola Marymount, the sentimental favorite that was given an unreasonably low seed (11) by the selection committee because of Hank Gathers’ death. You can make the argument that if UNLV hasn’t gotten to the title game after all this time (and talent), it never will. But this UNLV team plays defense better than anybody, has its best inside player ever in Larry Johnson and veteran guards who are deadly from three-point range. Las Vegas over Michigan in the region final.

In the Southeast, Virginia will blast Notre Dame from the tournament it shouldn’t be in anyway but will lose to Minnesota, which will lose to top-seeded Michigan State, the best team in the best conference in the country, in an all-Big Ten region final. The Spartans have great guards in Steve Smith and Kirk Manns, a burly front line and a veteran coach (Jud Heathcote).

In the Midwest, the Hoyas have never advanced more than one round when they’ve lost the Big East tournament. Georgetown, we think, will beat Texas Southern, Kansas State and Purdue but will lose to Arkansas. And how do Todd Day and the Razorbacks get so far? By beating Oklahoma, of course; that’s assuming the loud Sooners beat Southwest Missouri State. Let’s also make this clear: If the Hoyas and Sooners survive long enough to meet, Oklahoma is dead. Some of us are dying to see how the loud Sooners will do in a bruising half-court tournament game. Regardless, Arkansas wins the Midwest.

In the East, Kansas will beat St. John’s, and La Salle will beat Connecticut. Wasn’t it 11 years ago that people were saying about Larry Bird: “Indiana State doesn’t play anybody; wait till this Bird dude gets to the tournament.” Lionel Simmons is the real thing, baby, and he’s got help in point guard Doug Overton. La Salle over Kansas in the region final.

Final Four: Michigan State, UNLV, La Salle and Arkansas.

Sleeper waiting to pounce: East Tennessee State (playing in Knoxville, Tenn., over Georgia Tech and Villanova).

Best first-round games: Virginia over Notre Dame, Minnesota over UTEP, Providence over Ohio State, Georgia over Texas, Loyola Marymount over New Mexico State.

Teams that were left out but shouldn’t have been: Southern Illinois (26-7), De Paul (18-14) and Hawaii (23-9). They should have been invited at the expense of California, Notre Dame and Brigham Young.

What about Maryland? The Terrapins, knowing the school is going on probation for two years (pending appeal), would have impressed the selection committee with a desperate effort against Duke in the ACC tournament, even in a close defeat. Instead, Maryland got blown out by 20 on ESPN. The NCAA treated Maryland unfairly with its probation, but the Terrapins have only themselves to blame for not making the NCAA tournament.