NFL PLAYOFFS : Unraveling Mystery of the Tie-Breaker

The NFL’s tie-breaking procedures are supposed to reveal who’s in and who’s out of the postseason. But heading into the final weekend with six teams coveting three remaining slots, we are reminded again that deciphering the Dead Sea Scrolls probably was easier.

And if the NFL keeps adding to the burden--remember, this season is the first with three wild-card slots available in each conference--it is hardly going to be worth the effort.

Under the league’s rules, as many as nine steps might be applied if the tie to be broken involves teams in the same division; eight if tie-breaking is needed to determine the wild-card teams. But the only step that most people readily grasp, under either scenario, is the last one: Flip a coin.

“Really, you’d be surprised at how many fans are knowledgeable about this stuff,” said Pete Abitante, whose job it is to determine the AFC playoff entrants. It kept him working late into the night Sunday at the league’s headquarters. “In a sense, it’s like learning a foreign language--you’re always trying to figure which situation applies in which case.

“But there are obviously a lot of other people doing it. I get plenty of calls around this time of year from people who say, ‘I’ve got it figured this way,’ and they ask if there’s anything they might have missed.”

“And when you straighten them out,” he added, “they really thank you for it.”

Abitante has no way of knowing how many of the callers happen to be employed by the NFL as general managers, coaches or players. But it’s a safe bet that the long-distance lines from the four cities still chasing the two remaining AFC spots--Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Houston and Seattle--to his extension in New York will be humming in the days to come.

Under one punishing scenario, the Steelers, who are alone at the top of the AFC Central Division this week, could be out of the playoffs altogether by this same time next week.

A Pittsburgh loss at Houston, coupled with a Cincinnati victory over the lowly Cleveland Browns, would leave all three teams at 9-7. But Cincinnati would claim the AFC Central title by virtue of beating the Steelers in head-to-head contests.

Houston or Seattle would then get the wild-card berth, leaving Pittsburgh out of it.

“Maybe it’s better that we have to win,” Steeler cornerback David Johnson said. “If we knew there was a chance we could lose and still make the playoffs, who knows? Maybe we’d relax.”

If it’s any consolation to Johnson, the Bengals and the Oilers won’t be breathing any easier next week. Seattle also could finish 9-7 (or 8-8 if both Cincinnati and Houston lose as well), and because of this head-to-head business, nose out either of them for the wild card.

The NFC, thankfully, is easier to figure because only two teams--Dallas and New Orleans--are circling the last musical chair. If the Cowboys win Sunday against the Falcons, regardless of how the Saints do against the Rams, they’re in. If both lose, Dallas still wins.

But that kind of simplicity carries a price; under that both-teams-losing scenario, the Cowboys, at 7-9, would mark the first time a team with a losing record made the playoffs.

It was that very danger--diluting the product--that was raised earlier this year when the NFL announced in March that it was expanding the playoffs by adding a third wild-card team to each conference.