‘90--The Year of the Western

Now that “Dances With Wolves” has received an even dozen Oscar nominations from all those neo-Western film buffs in the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences, the question facing the Thursday-morning quarterback is how many will it win?

The inclination--given the bear hugs “Wolves” has gotten from critics, ticket buyers and Oscar voters--is to assume that it will win most, if not all, of the awards for which it’s been nominated. It’s almost a tradition of the academy, in years when one film seems to stand out, to give it everything it wants. As recently as 1987, “The Last Emperor” had a perfect score, with nine nominations and nine awards.

If “Wolves” were to run the table during the presentations March 25, its 12 Oscars would eclipse “Ben-Hur’s” 11 and make it the most celebrated film in Hollywood history.

But it’s not going to win all 12, and may not win half of them. Although it has had the best-picture Oscar on layaway ever since the movie opened last fall, and seems certain to win for musical score and film editing, “Wolves” faces stiff competition in most of the other categories. In some, it can’t even be regarded as a favorite.

Costner will probably win as best director, but there is sure to be a lot of support for Martin Scorsese (“GoodFellas”). Scorsese is the American director of the moment, and has never won an Oscar despite having directed such academy favorites as “Taxi Driver,” “Raging Bull” and “The Color of Money.” None of the other nominated directors even registers on the Oscar radar screen.

The other eight “Wolves” categories look like this:

Actor: Costner will win only if enough of the academy’s 4,800 voters haven’t seen Jeremy Irons in “Reversal of Fortune.” Irons is the favorite here, with Costner and Robert De Niro (“Awakenings”) his nearest competitors. Richard Harris (“The Field”) beat all odds getting this far, and as much as we’d like to see Gerard Depardieu (“Cyrano de Bergerac”) repeat the rousingly incoherent acceptance speech he gave at the recent Golden Globes (for “Green Card”), he doesn’t have to worry about not preparing for it. The pick here: Irons.

Supporting actor: Graham Green, terrific as the patient spiritual leader of Costner’s adopted Sioux tribe in “Wolves,” is in the toughest acting category of the year and figures to be a long shot behind the emerging star Andy Garcia (“The Godfather Part III”), Joe Pesci (“GoodFellas) and Al Pacino (“Dick Tracy”). Bruce Davison, the pick of most critics’ groups, was in a movie that many voters probably have not seen (nominations are made by the individual branches). The pick: Garcia.

Supporting actress: Many critics pointed to the Costner character’s romance with an adopted white woman living among the Sioux as the film’s major contrivance and Mary McDonnell, who played her, seems a long shot to both Whoopi Goldberg (“Ghost”) and Annette Bening (“The Grifters”). The pick: Goldberg.

Cinematography: On the final ballot, voters tend to link the quality of the cinematography with the size of the images and Dean Semler did give “Wolves” the scale of an epic. Trained eyes may see better work in “Dick Tracy” (Vittorio Storaro), “The Godfather Part III” (Gordon Willis), “Avalon” (Allen Daviau) and “Henry and June” (Philippe Rousselot), but the memory of the fabulous buffalo-hunting scene in “Wolves”--a better example of great film editing than cinematography--will carry the day. The pick: “Wolves.”

Costume design: The only original work done in this category was Milena Canonero’s comic-strip wardrobe for “Dick Tracy” and it will be an act of malicious generosity if the award goes instead to “Wolves.” (All-time great mischief in the category was the costume award voted to the person who said “Everybody wear white” for “Gandhi”). The pick: “Dick Tracy.”

Art direction: This is the “look” of a movie and everybody remembers the look of “Wolves.” But tepees, mud huts and prairies don’t add up to an Oscar and whatever else anyone thought of “Godfather III” or “Dick Tracy,” they looked sensational. The pick: “Dick Tracy.”

Sound: The soundtracks for both “Dick Tracy” and “The Hunt for Red October” seem greater achievements than that done for “Wolves” or the other two nominees--the noisy “Total Recall” and the noisier “Days of Thunder.” But the memory of those thundering buffalo hoofs in “Wolves” could drown out everything else. The pick: “Wolves.”

Adapted screenplay: The script usually hitches a ride on the best picture, which seems fair enough, but the adapted screenplays that got the most attention last year were Nicholas Kazan’s “Reversal of Fortune” and Donald E. Westlake’s “The Grifters.” Still, whatever support those scripts generate is likely to be split, to the benefit of “Wolves” writer Michael Blake. The pick: “Wolves.”

If this Thursday-morning quarterback has it right, “Wolves” will win seven Oscars. If “Wolves” fans think that number seems low, consider that the most Oscars ever won by a Western before were the four given to “Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid.”

No matter how many awards it picks up, the nominations themselves make a couple of things pretty clear: the Western has received short shrift throughout Oscar history, and Costner picked a very good year--a very lean year--in which to help the genre make a comeback.