Registration of Latinos Lags in 8th District : Politics: Lack of voters could hamper quest by Latinos for a City Council seat in a district reshaped by historic legal victory.

Despite an historic legal victory that gave them a formidable majority in San Diego’s 8th City Council District, Latinos apparently are not registering to vote in large numbers, hampering their long quest for political power and their best opportunity for an outright win in a council election.

With just 15 days until the deadline to register for the Sept. 17 primary election, voter registration in the district represented by Councilman Bob Filner is just two-thirds of what it was for the last primary election, in 1987.

While there are no reliable statistics on voter registration by ethnic group, experts acknowledge that Latinos are almost certainly signing up to vote in far smaller proportions than their 61.5% of the population. Anglos, despite making up less than 20% of the district population, once again will be significantly over-represented in the electorate, they concede.

And because low-income Latinos historically turn out to vote in smaller numbers than Anglos and other more enfranchised groups, their power in the election will be further diluted, Latino leaders and political observers believe.

“Ethnic politics in cities is the politics of numbers and getting out the vote, particularly for poor communities,” said Steven Erie, an associate professor of urban and ethnic politics at UC San Diego. “They talk about empowerment. Brave talk, but I don’t see them doing the grass roots organizing going on in Los Angeles.”

Despite the odds, few are willing to predict certain defeat for Latino challenger Andrea Palacios Skorepa because complexities of the election and the newly reconfigured district create many uncertainties.

Most importantly, in an election where fewer than 10,000 people may vote, even a poorly financed candidate like Skorepa may be able to turn out enough supporters to oust Filner from office. With limited resources, Skorepa said she is concentrating on wooing voters who usually turn out, rather than on registering new ones.

“This is a situation like those so common to California, where for an Hispanic to win, she’s going to have to get the vast majority of the Latino vote and (some of) the Anglo vote,” said UCLA demographer Leo Estrada, a consultant to the Chicano Federation of San Diego County in its successful federal Voting Rights Act lawsuit against the city of San Diego. “And I think she can do it.”

There are some hopeful signs for Skorepa’s bid to become the first Latino elected to the City Council without first being appointed to a vacant seat. Anti-incumbent fervor, particularly against City Council members, still runs strong, observers say. It remains to be seen, however, whether Skorepa is the candidate to take advantage of it.

Some political observers following the race also speculate that intense publicity about the reapportionment will produce a better than usual turnout among Latinos and a higher turnout than the 25.5% of registered voters who showed up at the polls in the 1987 primary.

“Turnout is going to determine this election,” Estrada said, “as it does most elections.”

But if patterns of recent elections in the 8th District repeat themselves, Latinos’ failure to register in large numbers--and the absence of a campaign by Skorepa or the Chicano Federation to register them--will pose a major obstacle in the attempt to defeat Filner.

As of Aug. 1, just 36,131 people were registered in the 8th District, far fewer than the 54,235 who were signed up to vote for the Sept. 17, 1987, primary, when the council seat was open. Filner placed first in that race against eight other candidates, including Chicano Federation attorney Michael Aguirre. Filner later defeated Aguirre in a citywide runoff election.

The registration figure is the lowest for a District 8 council primary since 1979, when 34,958 people were registered to vote, and lags far behind registration totals for the three other council districts where elections will be held Sept. 17.

At the top of the list is District 6, where 82,213 people are registered to vote in the race between Councilman Bruce Henderson and Salk Institute researcher Valerie Stallings.

In Councilman Wes Pratt’s heavily minority 4th District, 54,741 voters are registered for Pratt’s race with former Congressional staffer George Stevens.

According to Registrar of Voters’ reports, voter registration has crept up by just 220 people since June 1, making a surge in registration unlikely before Aug. 19, particularly in an election year when no other races are on the ballot in each district. Skorepa has scheduled a voter registration and “awareness” drive for Aug. 10 and 11.

Estrada, who has worked extensively with District 8 population and voter statistics, predicted that Latinos will make up perhaps 40% of the vote on Sept. 17. Anglos may make up as many as half the voters, he believes.

“My speculation is that while the district is 62% (Latino) in population, we’re probably looking at 35% to 40% in voter registration,” added David Valladolid, first vice-chairman of the Chicano Federation’s executive board and chief of staff to Assemblyman Pete Chacon (D-San Diego).

According to San Diego political consultant Tom Shepard, the percentage of Latinos among residents of the district most likely to vote may be even lower, about 27%.

Filner, however, said that he is not certain whether the Latino proportion of the voters will be higher or lower than in 1987. Nor is he willing to admit that votes will break along ethnic lines--Latinos for Skorepa and Anglos for him.

“We’re running on the basis that I have performed for every neighborhood in my district,” Filner said. “I think it’s an insult to the people in my district to assume they will vote based on race or ethnic group.”

Latino voter turnout historically is lower than Anglo turnout for a variety of reasons.

Of every 100 Latinos in a political jurisdiction in the Southwest--where the vast majority of Latinos in the United States live--about 38 are too young to vote, and as many as 34 are ineligible because they are not citizens, Estrada said. Of the remaining 28, about half will register to vote, but only a third of those will show up, yielding perhaps four voters on Election Day, he said.

For whites and blacks, 15 to 17 voters will show up on Election Day for every 100 members of the population, he said.

Locally, voter turnout in heavily Latino neighborhoods has usually lagged behind district and citywide statistics. In 1987, when Aguirre’s money and the large slate of candidates gave him a legitimate shot at the open seat, turnout in San Ysidro ran under 20%, compared to 25.5% for the district and 23.8% for the city, according to figures at the Registrar’s office.

The entire equation spells big trouble for Skorepa, who also must overcome Filner’s large advantages in name recognition and money as well as his four-year record as an incumbent, some say.

“When you combine low turnout with limited financial resources, you’ve got a real problem,” said San Diego political consultant Jean Andrews, who was Filner’s fund-raiser until last year.

In the 1987 election, Anglos and Latinos each represented about 40% of the district’s population of nearly 145,000 people, according to city Planning Department estimates. This year, as a result of the 1988 Chicano Federation Voting Rights Act lawsuit that ended in an out-of-court settlement, Latinos make up 61.5% of the 141,495 people in the district, while Anglos are just 19.3% of the population.

Under the new configuration, most neighborhoods with high concentrations of Anglo voters, including those in Hillcrest, Nestor, Golden Hill and downtown, were removed. Latino leaders declared that the new district gave them the best shot they have ever had at electing a candidate to the council.

The Chicano Federation lawsuit also produced the ballot measure approved in 1988 that transformed San Diego elections into district-only contests, providing more poorly financed candidates with a chance for victory because they no longer had to compete in citywide runoffs.

This election will be the first district-only election in the 8th District. But in 1989, little-known candidates Linda Bernhardt and John Hartley ousted well-financed incumbents Ed Struiksma and Gloria McColl to win seats. In April, Bernhardt was recalled.

Skorepa and her allies admit that they could have significantly boosted their chances with a widespread voter registration drive, but that never materialized.

“I would have loved to be in a position to do that, I really would have,” said Skorepa, who had raised just $19,426, $5,000 of it her own money, as of last week. “It is not the priority of this campaign because we don’t have the resources. Our first thing is to cover the people who do vote.”

“Certainly she’s hurt,” added Valladolid. “It’s just going to make it that much harder and she’s going to have to concentrate on cross-over votes.”

Filner has raised $130,305 and spent $118,769. A third candidate in the race, Lincoln Pickard, has raised and spent less than $1,500, about half of which was his own money.

Latino activists contend that regardless of the outcome, the stage is set for future gains in the 8th District, advances that will be built on the foundation of Skorepa’s attempt to wrest the seat from Filner.

“I wish there were lots more Latinos registered, but that’s the second stage,” said Aguirre. “They’re not going to do it until they see success. Once somebody gets into office, they will use the institution and the power of incumbency to get people registered.”

“These are important steps the political process,” said Valladolid. “There is no such thing as losing for us. (The election) will be an awakening for those who have not seen the political arena as one we should be involved in.”