ANALYSIS : Baseball’s Reality Is Bazaar : Major League Owners, Leery of a Possible Decline in TV Revenue, Still May Send Player Salaries Soaring With Offers to Free Agents Beginning Today

In the box score on baseball economics, a category headed AAV has become as important as RBI, ERA, HR and BA.

It translates to Average Annual Value.

And in 1991, after another free-spending winter that made collusion seem like a distant memory, 43 players had contracts with an average annual value of $3 million or more.

Two--Roger Clemens and Dwight Gooden--have an AAV of more than $5 million, and four--Jose Canseco, Andy Van Slyke, Tony Gwynn and Darryl Strawberry--are at $4 million or more.

Of the 43, Dave Winfield, Glenn Davis and Jack Morris will be negotiating new contracts, all as free agents.

Nolan Ryan, who was at $3.3 million last year, has been re-signed by the Texas Rangers for 1992 at $4.2 million, putting him fifth among the leaders. Chicago Cub shortstop Shawon Dunston, who would have been eligible for free agency, has already joined the new $3-million registry by agreeing to a four-year, $12-million contract with the Cubs.

And there are several free agents, headed by Bobby Bonilla and Danny Tartabull, who figure to rewrite the rankings when they begin receiving offers today, provided there is not an economic withdrawal by clubs concerned that CBS-TV losses will result in a sharply reduced national television package after the 1993 season.

“I think there’s definite concern about that,” said an American League general manager who asked not to be identified. “We’re approaching an area of unknown, but I think the top players, the Bonillas and Tartabulls, will continue to get the type contract they’re looking for, while the marginal player may have trouble getting that million-dollar deal anymore.”

Marginal player? With the average major league salary climbing toward $1 million, with 378 of the 650 players on major league rosters at the start of the 1991 season guaranteed $1 million or more in salary, it has become virtually impossible to equate salary to performance or performance to salary. Who was worth the money, and who wasn’t? In an inflated market, who can tell anymore?

“What every club has to deal with today is the reality of the situation, and it’s very difficult,” said Fred Claire, executive vice president of the Dodgers, whose payroll soared to $36 million this year. “With salaries so high, baseball judgments have never been tougher. The fans and media can say you should sign this guy and that guy, but what about the financial impact on the company?”

In a comparative market, Claire said, every signing affects every other, and “while you can argue that a particular signing wasn’t a good signing, you can’t deny that it’s there.”

The bottom line is that each club has to pay market value within its financial framework, hoping the player continues to produce as he has. There are no miracles, and the risk has proved to be enormous.

“A player doesn’t become a better player just because you’re paying him more,” Claire said. “Maybe that’s the most difficult reality of all. I mean, just because we’re paying more now doesn’t mean we’re justified in expecting more than what the player has produced in the past.”

Even those expectations are often unfulfilled. Here is a look at some of the salary and performance levels in 1991.

THE TOP 10

1--Clemens, $5.38 million of Average Annual Value: A tenacious workhorse of the Morris mold. Deserves to be No. 1 among pitchers. Made 35 starts for the Boston Red Sox, working 271 1/3 innings. Led American League in strikeouts and earned-run average. Was 18-10 and might have been 23-5 with better relief.

2--Gooden, $5.15 million: The concept of Gooden receiving a three-year, $15.45-million contract isn’t outrageous considering what he has meant to the New York Mets. Even this year, when he skipped a series of starts and saw his season end early because of arm and shoulder problems, he was 13-7 in 27 starts with a defenseless team. But he had rotator-cuff surgery in September and is uncertain for 1992 and beyond.

3--Canseco, $4.7 million: The Oakland Athletics have to swallow a lot with Canseco, but 44 home runs, 122 runs batted in and 26 stolen bases make it palatable. There will be winter rumors about Canseco being traded, but that is unlikely. With a bit more discipline at the plate, Canseco will appear under paid.

4--Van Slyke, $4.216 million: An outstanding defensive player and a solid threat at the plate, where he produced 17 homers and drove in 83 runs, Van Slyke still seems overpaid on a comparative basis, particularly by the Pittsburgh Pirates, who may be unwilling or unable to meet the salary demands of two teammates with more offensive potential--Bonilla and Barry Bonds.

5--Gwynn, $4.083 million: An acceptable buy in the context of what he means to the San Diego Padres and in view of his consistent, though limited, batting threat. A knee injury that ended his season after 134 games might have prevented Gwynn from winning his fourth batting title. He batted .317 with 62 RBIs.

6--Strawberry, $4.05 million: His 28 homers and 99 RBIs rival his career averages, but Strawberry will always be measured against the albatross of his potential. Where was he in the first half? Where was he on the final weekend? This is one contract that might have to play out before a judgment is made.

7--Don Mattingly, $3.86 million: The New York Yankees’ first baseman signed a five-year deal before back problems reduced him to a long-haired singles hitter. He batted .288 with nine homers and 68 RBIs and is still adjusting to his physical limitations.

8--Fred McGriff, $3.812 million: The knock against McGriff is that his home runs, 35 in 1990 and 31 in ‘91, don’t produce a commensurate number of RBIs, 88 in 1990 and 106 in ‘91, but he is a bona fide power hitter whose statistics, on a comparative basis, seem to justify the salary he is being paid by the Padres, although he is nowhere near the hitter that No. 9 is.

9--Will Clark, $3.75 million: Started slowly but requires no apology for a .301 average, 29 homers and 116 RBIs while playing half a season in the polar zone that is Candlestick Park. Dollar for dollar, the San Francisco Giant first baseman is baseball’s best.

10--Kevin Mitchell, $3.75 million: In the same salary league as teammate Clark, but that’s all. He hit 27 homers but batted .256 with 69 RBIs. His weight and leg problems threaten his productivity in the final three years of the contract. The Giants would like to unload him, but might have problems finding a taker.

ALL-OVERPAID

An all-overpaid team selected on the eve of the 1991 season proved reasonably accurate.

The exceptions:

--Third baseman Terry Pendleton, who had signed a four-year, $10.2-million contract with Atlanta after batting .230 in his final season with the St. Louis Cardinals, led the National League in hitting and became the emotional leader of the worst-to-first Braves.

--Juan Samuel, who shared second base with Marty Barrett on the overpaid team, batted .271, drove in 58 runs and stole 23 bases for the Dodgers, justifying a measure of his $1.575-million salary.

--First baseman Pete O’Brien, signed by the Seattle Mariners as a $5.6-million free agent before the 1990 season, hit 17 homers and drive in 88 runs.

Otherwise:

--Catchers Darren Daulton--who had the misfortune of letting Lenny Dykstra do the driving--and Dave Valle lived down to their selections, batting a respective .194 and .196 while earning a respective $1.3 million and $2.25 million.

--Keith Hernandez, a selection at first base, did not play a game for the Cleveland Indians, who swallowed $1.6 million, and Barrett, a selection at second, played only 12 games for the Padres, who shared his $1.1-million salary with the Red Sox.

--Shortstops Jose Uribe, at $1.2 million, and Alfredo Griffin, at $900,000, honored their selections by batting .221 and .243, respectively, and totaling 39 RBIs.

--Outfielders Rob Deer, who was paid $2 million for a .179 average and 175 strikeouts, and Kevin Bass, who received $1.75 million for a .233 average, 10 homers and 40 RBIs, proved to be justifiable, as did Milt Thompson, who had a .307 average but only six homers and 34 RBIs while earning $2.1 million.

--Pitching selections Matt Young, at $2.1 million; Mike Witt, at $2.25 million; Pascual Perez, at $1.9 million, and Mark Davis, at $3.25 million, were as bad as expected, going a combined 11-15, with Witt and Perez spending most of the season on the disabled list.

Some candidates for the all overpaid team next spring: Oakland’s $6.9 million combo of Dave Stewart and Bob Welch, who were a combined 23-24 with a 4.88 earned-run average; the Kansas City Royals’ Mark Gubicza, who received $2.5 million for going 9-12 with a 5.58 ERA; Angel catcher Lance Parrish, who was paid $2.25 million and batted .216; Boston outfielder Tom Brunansky, who made $2.5 million while batting .229; Montreal Expo third baseman Tim Wallach, who made $2.3 million while batting .225 with 13 homers, and two prominent first basemen--Mark McGwire of the A’s, who got $2.85 million and batted .201, and Andres Galarraga of the Expos, who was paid $2.2 million and batted .219.

POOR MAN’S ALL-STARS

Players earning less than $1 million--but not for long.

First base--Frank Thomas, $120,000; Jeff Bagwell, $100,000; Hal Morris, $180,000.

Second base--Willie Randolph, $900,000; Delino DeShields, $215,000; Chuck Knoblauch, $100,000.

Shortstop--Jay Bell, $360,000.

Third base--Travis Fryman, $150,000; Steve Buechele, $775,000; Todd Zeile, $230,000.

Outfield--Roberto Kelly, $900,000; David Justice, $296,500; Ken Griffey Jr., $535,000; Juan Gonzalez, $127,500; Felix Jose, $230,000; Milt Cuyler, $100,000; Shane Mack, $270,000; Marquis Grissom, $140,000.

Catcher--Brian Harper, $687,500.

Designated hitter--Albert Belle, $100,000.

Pitchers--Jim Abbott, $357,500; Tom Glavine, $697,500; Steve Avery, $110,000; John Smoltz, $335,000; Ramon Martinez, $485,000; Jack McDowell, $175,000; Mike Morgan, $650,000.

DOWN AND OUT

The physical risks in signing players to multiyear or free-agent contracts are characterized by four players on the $3-million AAV list, in addition to Gooden.

--The Milwaukee Brewers ignored Ted Higuera’s previous arm problems and signed the left-hander to a four-year, $13-million contract last winter. Higuera worked in seven games before being sidelined because of a rotator cuff injury that threatens his career.

--The Toronto Blue Jays, without urging, renegotiated Dave Stieb’s multiyear contract, increasing his 1991 salary to $3 million. Stieb appeared in nine games before being sidelined for the season because of a herniated disk.

--The Baltimore Orioles signed Glenn Davis to a one-year contract for $3.275 million. Davis appeared in only 49 games because of a nerve injury that has diminished his current free-agent value.

--After appearing in only 127 games in the first year of a three-year, $9.3-million contract with the Cincinnati Reds, Eric Davis appeared in only 89 games last season because of a mysterious case of fatigue believed to stem from a kidney injury suffered during the 1990 World Series. Davis has sat out 24% of his team’s games in the last six seasons and is now on the trading block.

Two other signings of last winter help underscore the risk and folly of multiyear contracts:

--The Red Sox guaranteed 35-year-old Danny Darwin $11.8 million for four years and were rewarded with three victories and 12 starts.

--The Cubs ignored Danny Jackson’s history of injuries to sign the left-handed free agent for four years at $10 million. Jackson spent 94 days on the disabled list and won one game. In the three years since he won 23 with the Reds, he is 13-22.

Despite all of that, the games of this winter are expected to send salaries soaring again, with ticket prices increasing as a result. The Red Sox, for example, announced last week that they have increased the price of box seats by $2 to $18, $16 and $14, an obvious spinoff of their $25-million deal with Clemens and the lamentable signings of Darwin, Young and others. The Dodgers have increased prices by $1, and the Angels, who raised ticket prices by $2 last winter, announced that they would remain the same in 1992. Family entertainment? Not for long.

A joint study committee headed by Don Fehr, executive director of the Major League Players Assn., and Bud Selig, owner of the Milwaukee Brewers, continues to look into the industry’s economics, with management expected to make another bid for some form of revenue sharing in the next bargaining negotiations.