(Mis)Leading Indicators

The most predictable thing about Sunday’s Super Bowl (outside of a dull halftime show) is the evitable prediction today that because the Redskins won, the stock market will rise.

This theory, which never fails to get a lot of ink this time of year, says that the market tends to rise on an NFC victory, while tanking when the AFC wins. The most amazing thing about the theory isn’t its record of accuracy, but the number of people over the years who have successfully claimed credit for it.

The biggest problem with the Super Bowl/stock theory is that it overshadows equally intriguing theories. Consider these that will be put to a test in 1992:

* The market tends to fall when a film in the theaters alleges that the government covered up the Kennedy assassination.

Don’t be misled by the market run-up since the recent release of Oliver Stone’s “JFK” in December. Conspiracy films are a bearish indicator. The year 1973, when Burt Lancaster starred in the conspiratorial “Executive Action,” was a huge bust for the market as it fell nearly 16%.

* The market on average increases 9% the year after an Elizabeth Taylor marriage.

Unlike the first theory, this more optimistic one comes with ample historical data. It’s based on market performances in 1951, 1953, 1958, 1960, 1965, 1976 and 1977.

Clearing the Air

Despite its sizable manufacturing sector, Los Angeles can hardly be called a smokestack town. Consider as evidence some of the recent fines disclosed by the Air Quality Management District:

* NBC, usually criticized for putting junk on the air, was fined for the stuff it put in the air when officials discovered that the network improperly painting scenery.

* Hawthorne toy maker Mattel, maker of Hot Wheels, was fined for failing to put into action a ride-sharing plan so employees won’t use their wheels as often.

* Gray Line/Starline Tours was fined for “excessive hydrocarbons from idling buses.” (Some might interpret that as a subtle message to Southern California sightseers to get back on their buses more quickly after viewing our attractions.)

No Japanese Field of Dreams

Baseball Commissioner Fay Vincent, reacting last week to a bid for the Seattle Mariners by a group led by the Japanese owners of Nintendo, said it is unlikely that North America’s national pastime will be invaded by “foreign investors.” (Presumably, Major League Baseball rules don’t classify Canadian investors in the Toronto Blue Jays and Montreal Expos as foreigners.)

Vincent, of course, is probably best known around Hollywood for heading Columbia Pictures in the mid-1980s. That’s the studio that last year was renamed after its new owner . . . Sony.

Briefly. . .

“Reverse the recession” reads an ad from a Southern California hair transplantation firm. . . . Executives wanting to improve their image are now being pitched “vocal make-overs” by voice and speech consultants. . . . A study of 1,500 executives by the Socio-Economic Research Institute in New York found that employees and managers “are afraid to read newspapers at their desks, lest they be thought to be ‘goofing off.’ ”