TRIPLE CROWN RATINGS

Despite the presence of Arazi, who is expected to go off at the lowest odds in the Kentucky Derby since 1979, the 118th running of the race at Churchill Downs on May 2 is likely to draw a capacity field of 20 3-year-olds for the first time since 1984.

After the final important Derby prep races last Saturday, the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct and the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park, there are at least 16 horses committed to run, and additional starters might surface today, when Keeneland runs the Lexington Stakes at 1 1/16 miles and trainer Allen Jerkens makes up his mind about Wood winner Devil His Due.

“I could take more time because I’ve seen horses ship into the Derby late and still do all right,” Jerkens said from his barn Monday. “But I’ve got to decide by (today) because of therider.”

Mike Smith, who rode Devil His Due for the first time in the Wood, says that the colt should run in the Derby. Jerkens is wavering, however, mainly because the colt, who was unraced as a 2-year-old, would be asked to run his fourth demanding race in two months.

According to Jerkens, Smith has a chance to ride Pine Bluff, the winner of the Arkansas Derby, and Pine Bluff’s handlers need an answer by today, which also happens to be Jerkens’ 63rd birthday. Jerry Bailey has been riding Pine Bluff, but he has other Derby possibilities--Technology, winner of the Florida Derby, and D.J. Cat, unbeaten in four starts going into today’s Lexington.

Others entered in the Lexington are Lure, Alydeed, Hill Pass, My Luck Runs North, Agincourt and Ten Sins. Lure has won his last two starts at Aqueduct by more than 13 lengths and appears to be peaking, but there’s no guarantee he will run in the Derby even if he wins. The son of Danzig and Endear, an Alydar mare, got a late start this season because of sore shins, and trainer Shug McGaughey might skip the Derby and concentrate on the Preakness, the second leg of the Triple Crown, which will be run at Pimlico on May 16. The final Triple Crown race is the Belmont Stakes in New York on June 6.

As sometimes happens in Derby preps, just because the winner doesn’t go on, it doesn’t mean that the runners-up will stay home. Take Saturday’s Wood, for example.

While Jerkens is undecided about the Derby, some of the horses Devil His Due beat appear definite for Churchill Downs. They would include West By West, who rallied from seventh place to take second, and Snappy Landing, who raced close to the pace before finishing fourth.

Snappy Landing finished third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last year, but Arazi beat him by 8 1/2 lengths, and Snappy Landing’s only victory in eight starts was against maidens at Belmont Park seven months ago. And he finished the Wood bleeding from his hind legs, clear through his bandages.

“The owner (Fred McNeary) has given me the opinion that he wants to run in Kentucky,” trainer Dennis Manning said. “Unless he changes his plans, and as long as I get the horse healed up for the race, he’ll go. He should be all right. It’s just a question of whether I’ll be able to train him the way I’ll need to for the Derby.”

The Wayne Lukas-trained Al Sabin, who didn’t even run in the Wood, is another Derby possibility. Al Sabin won a minor stake on the Wood program at 1 1/8 miles in 1:49 1/5--the same time posted by Devil His Due in the Wood.

Another horse who has had a setback on the way to the Derby is Casual Lies, who was third, behind A.P. Indy and Bertrando, in the Santa Anita Derby.

Sunday at Churchill Downs, Casual Lies worked seven-eighths of a mile in 1:31, a woeful time, and afterward a local veterinarian, Gary Lavin, said the colt had a stomachache after eating wood shavings from the floor of his stall. Casual Lies has wood shavings in his stall instead of straw because he has a tendency to eat the straw.

Lavin said he expected the horse’s abdominal discomfort to ease in a few days. Even so, Casual Lies has wasted a workout. “He got nothing out of it,” said his owner-trainer, Shelley Riley. “Now I’m concerned about getting him ready for the race.”

When large fields surface for the Derby, favorites have trouble winning, mainly because of traffic difficulty. Twelve times the Derby has drawn fields of 20 or more, and only twice--with Black Gold in 1924 and War Admiral in 1937--has the favorite won.

Spectacular Bid, the last favorite to win a Derby of any size, went off at 3-5 odds in ‘79, and Arazi should be about that price, maybe even lower. But the challengers will still be there; Arazi has had only one prep race this year, in France, after undergoing arthroscopic knee surgery 5 1/2 months ago.

“Maybe Arazi still won’t show,” Jerkens said. “Who knows? If there were four or five other really top horses, that would be another story. But there aren’t.”

Advisory panel for The Times’ Triple Crown Ratings: Lenny Hale, vice president for racing at Aqueduct, Belmont Park and Saratoga; Frank (Jimmy) Kilroe, director of racing emeritus at Santa Anita; and Tommy Trotter, racing secretary at Hialeah.

TRIPLE CROWN RATINGS

Horse S 1 2 3 Earnings 1.Arazi 9 8 1 0 $1,117,608 2.A.P. Indy 6 5 0 0 722,555 3.Pine Bluff 10 5 1 2 679,988 4.Pistols And Roses 10 6 2 2 820,846 5.Technology 6 4 1 1 464,963 6.Devil His Due 6 4 1 0 432,725 7.Lil E. Tee 8 4 3 1 452,306 8.Casual Lies 9 5 0 2 445,628 9.Conte Di Savoya 10 1 3 1 129,368 10.Dance Floor 11 4 4 0 643,859