COLLEGE FOOTBALL PREVIEW / GENE WOJCIECHOWSKI : Taking a Dry Run Through 1992 Season, by the Numbers

You appear lost. Allow us to guide you through the coming college football season with this handy 20-step set of directions.

Ready . . . begin.

1. What in the name of Lou Saban is Ray Perkins, former coach of Alabama and the New York Giants, doing at Arkansas State, a school that finished 1-10 last season and is just now joining Division I-A football after a 10-year absence?

There are three possible explanations:

--He thought they said Arizona State.

--Someone slipped him a Mickey during the initial interview process. A groggy Perkins later signed the contract papers and then passed out.

--It beats unemployment.

Arkansas State, which joins the Big West Conference in 1993, is thrilled with Perkins’ arrival. Since he was hired last December, season ticket sales have increased, the number of radio network affiliates has jumped from 21 to 45, interview requests are off the charts and blue-chip high school recruits aren’t automatically throwing Arkansas State correspondence in the trash.

In an effort to bring some Division I-A paranoia to the program, Perkins had Arkansas State’s two practice fields enclosed by an 8-foot-high wooden fence. Funded by school boosters, the fence, built to ensure privacy for Indian practices is known as Fort Perkins.

Other Perkins touches: Players will get to choose from three pregame meals. . . . Visitors must excuse themselves from Perkins’ office whenever a player requires a visit with his coach. . . . For the first time in school history, players will have their names on their jerseys. Considering that the Indians had the nation’s longest losing streak last year--14--that might not be such a good idea.

Of course, don’t expect Perkins to make a career out of Arkansas State. A five-year anniversary pin is probably out of the question.

2. What teams have found their way onto the prestigious preseason Top 10 and the almost equally prestigious preseason Waiting List?

Submitted for your approval: 1. Miami, 2. Washington, 3. Georgia, 4. Notre Dame, 5. Syracuse, 6. Alabama, 7. Florida State, 8. Michigan, 9. Florida, 10. Texas A&M.;

Our Waiting List: Illinois, Nebraska, Colorado, Stanford, Penn State.

3. Can BYU win without quarterback Ty Detmer?

You better believe it.

Detmer, the former Heisman Trophy winner, will be missed, but it isn’t as if the Cougars don’t have some qualified replacements. Steve Clements, a prized Texas recruit who transferred to BYU last year, and John Walsh of Torrance are the supposed finalists for the job. Clements, a left-hander, has been compared to former Cougar star Steve Young, and Walsh is likened to former BYU star and now assistant coach Robbie Bosco.

For what it’s worth, BYU won the 1984 national championship with Bosco at quarterback.

BYU’s problem isn’t so much with its quarterback as it is with its schedule. The opponents of note: San Diego State, UCLA, Fresno State, Notre Dame, Penn State, Air Force and Utah. Survive that stretch and BYU could be on its way to a second national title.

4. Who will win the major conference titles?

Easy. Atlantic Coast--Florida State (Upset winner--Georgia Tech). Big East--Miami (Upset winner--Syracuse). Big Eight--Nebraska (Upset winner--Kansas). Big Ten--Michigan (Upset winner--Ohio State). Pacific 10--Washington (Upset winner--USC). Southeastern--Georgia (Upset winner--Mississippi State). Southwest--Texas A&M; (Upset winner--Texas Tech). Western Athletic--BYU (Upset winner--Fresno State).

5. Are there five meaningless, yet interesting items we should know about this season?

Now that you ask . . .

Job frustration runs in the Young family. Steve can’t unseat Joe Montana in San Francisco and Tom Young has been relegated to No. 3 on the BYU quarterback depth chart.

Oklahoma hasn’t won a Big Eight title since 1987, Barry Switzer’s next-to-last season as Sooner coach.

Miami Coach Dennis Erickson will never be accused of spending too much time on his golf game. During July’s $400,000 Isuzu Celebrity Golf Championship in Lake Tahoe, Erickson recorded rounds of 95, 108 and 99 for a three-day total of 302, 89 strokes behind the eventual winner. He finished last in a 74-golfer field and afterward claimed that a shoulder injury was to blame for the poor scores.

Texas wide receiver Mike Davis was suspended for the entire season because of his failure to pay his traffic tickets.

Washington, defending co-national champion with Miami, isn’t scheduled to make any national network appearances during the regular season. We repeat--not one. For ABC’s national game Sept. 19, the network chose Notre Dame at Michigan State (last year’s score: Irish 49, Spartans 10) rather than Nebraska at Washington.

6. Can anybody other than Notre Dame quarterback Rick Mirer or San Diego State tailback Marshall Faulk win the Heisman Trophy?

No.

But just in case, we offer five other candidates and one longshot: Florida quarterback Shane Matthews, Miami quarterback Gino Torretta, Rice running back Trevor Cobb, Notre Dame fullback Jerome Bettis, California running back Russell White and the longshot, Syracuse quarterback Marvin Graves.

7. Is there no way to stop Miami from winning another national championship, which would make five titles in 10 years?

There are three hopes:

Miami’s schedule. The Hurricane list of opponents includes Florida State at home, and road games at Penn State, Syracuse, San Diego State and Iowa. All five of those teams are expected to finish the season in the top 25.

Miami’s history. The Hurricanes have never won a national championship without a first-year starting quarterback. Rookie starter Bernie Kosar led the Hurricanes to a title in 1983. Steve Walsh did it in 1987. Craig Erickson did it in 1989. Gino Torretta did it in 1991. Torretta is back.

--Miami’s kicking game. Carlos Huerta, the Hurricanes’ all-time leading scorer and the school’s most accurate kicker, has graduated and been replaced by freshman Dane Prewitt. How important are kickers in a national championship run? Just ask Florida State’s Bobby Bowden.

8. When is it not good to have 10 returning defensive starters?

When those starters are from Notre Dame.

The Irish defense gave up an average of 21.8 points (35 during their last four games of the season), more than 200 yards rushing per game and more than a 60% completion rate by opposing quarterbacks. Thus, it was no accident that Lou Holtz hired three new defensive coaches during the off-season, including Rick Minter as defensive coordinator. Holtz can replace his entire staff if he wants, but if Notre Dame’s defensive line doesn’t play any better, it won’t matter who blows the whistles, especially with Michigan, Michigan State (don’t laugh, they will be better), Stanford, BYU, Boston College, Penn State and USC on the schedule.

9. Why is it that of the 107 Division I-A coaching jobs--16 of which were available during the off-season--not one is held by a black coach?

What, and deprive Minnesota the chance to hire veteran white coach Jim Wacker, a decent man with an unimpressive 40-58 record during his nine seasons at Texas Christian? Nothing against Wacker or Minnesota, but the absence of any black head coaches is reprehensible.

10. Why is the Southwest Conference the most intriguing league in college football this season?

A roll call:

Texas A&M; could win the national championship. . . . Texas could return to national respectability with new coach and non-Texan John Mackovic in control. . . . Rice could record its first winning season since 1963, thanks to running back Trevor Cobb and a decent defense. . . . Texas Tech Coach Spike Dykes will win admirers with his one-liners and will nearly win the title with his underrated Red Raiders. . . . Grant Teaff ends a 21-year reign as Baylor’s coach. . . . Southern Methodist will have its first senior class of players since the NCAA’s death penalty was imposed after the 1987 season. . . . TCU could lose its 24th consecutive game to Texas. . . . Nonconformist John Jenkins still has a job at Houston. . . . Rumors of Texas and Texas A&M; bolting to another conference--the Pac-10?--persist.

11. Who is the happiest player in the land?

None other than cornerback Chad Wilson, who transferred to Miami after Cal State Long Beach administrators shut down the 49er football program. Strange how this worked out. Wilson started against the Hurricanes a season ago. Now he has a legitimate chance for a championship ring.

12. Which five coaches had better win . . . or else?

--John Cooper, Ohio State.

Even with a contract extension, Cooper remains on shaky ground with Buckeye fans. Then again, we say that every year. Cooper has lost four consecutive games to hated Michigan and Illinois, is 0-3 in his last three bowl appearances and 2-12-1 against ranked teams.

--Jim Strong, Nevada Las Vegas.

A mini-disaster. The tipoff? A total of 14 assistants, and counting, have left during the last two seasons.

--John Jenkins, Houston.

Jenkins, whose teams give up points faster than his run-and-shoot offense can score them, is going on his third defensive coordinator in as many seasons. Brash and a lover of talking trash, Jenkins needs to reverse last year’s 4-7 record if he hopes to return for a fourth season.

--Larry Smith, USC.

Losers of their last six consecutive games, 11-11-1 during the last two seasons, 3-8 in 1991 and faced with a killer schedule (San Diego State, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, UCLA, Washington, Stanford and Cal, among others), the Trojans--and Smith--can’t afford many more failures.

--Bob Stull, Missouri.

Nine victories in three years isn’t exactly what Mizzou had in mind.

13. Which six games will determine the No. 1 ranking at the end of the regular season?

Michigan at Notre Dame, Sept. 12; SEC championship game (remember, the SEC goes to divisional play this year), Dec. 5; Miami at Syracuse, Nov. 21; Texas A&M; at Texas, Nov. 26; Nebraska at Washington, Sept. 19, and Colorado at Nebraska, Oct. 31.

14. What preseason top-10 team has the easiest path to a national championship?

Whatever they paid the guy who arranged Washington’s 1992 schedule, it wasn’t enough. The Huskies have only one difficult nonconference game, at home against Nebraska, and also get USC, Stanford and Cal at home, as well as Wisconsin, Pacific and Oregon State. The rest of the schedule: at Arizona State, at Washington State, at Arizona and at Oregon.

Runner-up in the Stay-puff scheduling contest: Florida. Eight of the Gators’ 11 games are inside state borders and only two road games can be considered tough--at Mississippi State, at Florida State.

15. Which three teams could burst onto the scene, making America safe from perennial favorites Notre Dame, Miami and Penn State?

--Georgia.

What this country needs is a return to that obnoxious chant of, “How ‘bout them Dawgs!” With quarterback phenom Eric Zeier and running back Garrison Hearst, you just might hear it.

--San Diego State.

Whoever thought you would have to go to San Diego to see the best running back in Southern California, to say nothing of the nation? If the Aztecs find a defense, this could be some joy ride.

--Kansas.

We predict at least one major upset for the Jayhawks, perhaps Sept. 24 against Cal or Nov. 14 against Colorado.

16. To hear everyone gush about the Dec. 5 SEC championship game, you might think it was the greatest southern discovery since Jack Daniels. What’s the big deal?

Short term: The 80,000-seat Legion Field stadium in Birmingham is already sold out. Revenue produced from ticket sales and television rights could reach $9 million, which is about $6.25 million more than the Sugar Bowl paid the conference’s representative in last season’s game. SEC members will share a financial windfall expected to reach--and these are conservative estimates--about $5 million. Birmingham officials estimate the game will produce a potential economic impact of about $34 million.

Long term: If financially successful--and all indications suggest this very thing--some conferences will trip over themselves trying to copy the league title game. Also, look for a resumption of conference realignment and renewed pressure on NCAA members to devise a national championship playoff. One other thing: don’t expect an SEC team to come out of a new eight-game conference schedule (plus the championship game) without a few defeats. And these days, unless you are 11-0 or 10-1 at regular season’s end, you’ve got no chance at a national championship.

17. You have dinner reservations for six. What five coaches should you invite for an evening of lively football chitchat?

May we suggest Florida State’s Bobby Bowden, Stanford’s Bill Walsh, Texas Tech’s Spike Dykes, Iowa State’s Jim Walden and Houston’s John Jenkins.

Bowden is the most entertaining and sincere big-time coach in the business; Walsh has stories galore and, when he’s in the mood, a dry sense of humor; Dykes doesn’t have a pretentious bone in his body and anyway, no dinner would be complete without a Texan; Walden says exactly what’s on his mind, and Jenkins is cocky and confident enough to cause a few arguments.

18. Who will be the next great Division I-A coach?

Choose one of three:

--Mark Duffner, Maryland.

Duffner led Division I-AA Holy Cross to a 60-5-1 record during his six-year tenure. Athletic Director Andy Geiger knew what he was doing when he hired Duffner, who grew up in Maryland, to revive the Terrapin program.

--Barry Alvarez, Wisconsin.

Alvarez is 6-16 in two years at Wisconsin, but five of those victories were scored last season. And remember that Alvarez started at ground zero with the Badgers. The former Notre Dame assistant is bound for stardom.

--Turner Gill, Nebraska.

Gill, a former Cornhusker quarterback who recently joined Tom Osborne’s staff, earned rave reviews as an assistant at SMU. With Gill’s growing reputation, look for a progressive athletic director to take a calculated gamble.

19. What player won’t win the Heisman, but could go first in the NFL draft?

Washington State quarterback Drew Bledsoe is only a junior, but already NFL scouts are proclaiming him the best pro prospect available, with Notre Dame’s Mirer not far behind.

20. We know who will start the season ranked No. 1. Now then, who will finish it there?

Despite the difficult schedule, the pressure of repeating, the odds of injuries and the likelihood of at least one upset, Miami has the talent and the attitude to win a second consecutive national championship. If the Hurricanes falter, Washington will be poised to claim its second title in a row. And our longshot choice: Georgia.

Top 10

As selected by staff writer Gene Wojciechowski.

1991 No. Team Record 1. Miami 12-0 2. Washington 12-0 3. Georgia 9-3 4. Notre Dame 10-3 5. Syracuse 10-2 6. Alabama 11-1 7. Florida State 11-2 8. Michigan 10-2 9. Florida 10-2 10. Texas A&M; 10-2

Waiting List: Illinois, Nebraska, Colorado, Stanford, Penn State.

The Preseason Polls

ASSOCIATED PRESS

No. Team 1991 Points 1. Miami (40) 12-0-0 1,511 2. Washington (12) 12-0-0 1,453 3. Notre Dame (6) 10-3-0 1,405 4. Florida 10-2-0 1,252 5. Florida State (1) 11-2-0 1,239 6. Michigan (1) 10-2-0 1,236 7. Texas A&M; 10-2-0 1,135 8. Penn State 11-2-0 1,122 9. Alabama (1) 11-1-0 1,093 10. Syracuse 10-2-0 949 11. Nebraska 9-2-0 737 12. Colorado 8-3-1 719 13. Clemson 9-2-1 662 14. Georgia 9-3-0 686 15. Oklahoma 9-3-0 662 16. Iowa 10-1-1 594 17. Stanford 8-4-0 543 18. UCLA 9-3-0 527 19. Ohio State 8-4-0 415 20. California 10-2-0 377 21. Tennessee 9-3-0 283 22. Mississippi State 7-5-0 239 23. Georgia Tech 8-5-0 175 24. Brigham Young 8-3-2 141 25. Texas 5-6-0 140

USA TODAY/CNN

No. Team 1991 Points 1. Miami (40) 12-0-0 1,475 2. Washington (14) 12-0-0 1,365 3. Notre Dame (3) 10-3-0 1,267 4. Florida State 11-2-0 1,219 5. Michigan 10-2-0 1,184 6. Florida (1) 10-2-0 1,156 7. Texas A&M; 10-2-0 1,151 8. Penn State (2) 11-2-0 1,104 9. Alabama 11-1-0 981 10. Syracuse 10-2-0 829 11. Nebraska 9-2-1 826 12. Oklahoma 9-3-0 741 13. Clemson 9-2-1 708 14. Colorado 8-3-1 695 15. Iowa 10-1-1 643 16. Georgia 9-3-0 569 17. UCLA 9-3-0 482 18. Ohio State 8-4-0 400 19. Tennessee 9-3-0 351 20. Stanford 8-4-0 340 21. Brigham Young 8-3-2 220 22. California 10-2-0 205 23. Georgia Tech 8-5-0 191 23. Texas 5-6-0 191 25. USC 3-8-0 170

Total points for the preseason poll are 25 points for a first-place vote through one point for a 25th-place vote. First-place votes in parentheses.