THOROUGHBRED RACING : Victory by Sea Hero in Derby Is Boon for Dosage Exponents

Exponents of dosage are dancing in the streets. Their estimable but ridiculed system of finding horses that might win the Kentucky Derby, under fire after Strike The Gold broke the code by winning the race in 1991, has been revitalized by Sea Hero’s victory at Churchill Downs a week ago.

Dosage is a thinking man’s approach to the Derby, a subjective analysis of horses’ male bloodlines to see if they possess the stamina and speed to win at the Derby distance of 1 1/4 miles. Dosage-ophiles claim that the system has worked in ascertaining Derby winners from 1929 through 1990, but an important footnote needs to be added: They worked backward with their formulas for most of those years and didn’t go public with the system until about 15 years ago.

The lower the dosage index the better, and 15 of the 19 Derby starters this year qualified as potential winners. That’s hardly a handicapping help, but when dosage was combined with a second barometer, the ranking of horses in the Experimental Handicap, the list was narrowed to two horses: Sea Hero and Silver Of Silver.

Truth Of It All was also listed as a dual qualifier, being Canada’s champion 2-year-old, but was ineligible for the Experimental because he had not raced in the United States. Silver Of Silver ran eighth and Truth Of It All was 10th in the Derby.

The Experimental is an annual New York Jockey Club exercise in rating young horses according to their performances as 2-year-olds. The higher Experimental weights theoretically go to the best horses. Gilded Time was ranked first at 126 pounds, but neither he nor the next three horses on the list--River Special, It’sali’lknownfact and Mountain Cat--made it to the Derby. Sea Hero and Silver Of Silver were next at 120 pounds.

Leon Rasmussen, the retired bloodlines expert for the Daily Racing Form, began writing columns about dual Derby qualifiers in 1981. In an interview with the Louisville Courier-Journal that was published the morning of this year’s Derby, Rasmussen picked Sea Hero to win. He was one of the few professionals to correctly tab the 12-1 shot.

“Dosage was never intended to be a handicapping tool,” Rasmussen said Friday. “It’s supposed to be a help for breeders.”

Many trainers may pooh-pooh dosage, but they are some of the same horsemen who read the columns about it assiduously and quote the indices freely.

This winter at Santa Anita, while the Bell family was trying to sell Tossofthecoin, there was interest from Cal Partee, who won last year’s Derby with Lil E. Tee.

Partee, who lives in Arkansas, sent his trainer, Lynn Whiting, to California to inspect the colt.

“They vetted him, and there were no problems,” Tommy Bell said. “We were also close as far as the money was concerned. But from what I understood, they didn’t go ahead and close the deal because Partee didn’t want a horse who didn’t have the right dosage for the Derby.”

Tossofthecoin was sold later, to Sidney and Jenny Craig for $1 million, and after running in fourth place for half a mile in the Derby, he finished last. A post-race examination showed that the horse had suffered pulmonary bleeding.

Sea Hero is a son of Polish Navy, a major stakes winner; a grandson of Danzig, the leading North American sire the last two years; and a great-grandson of Northern Dancer, winner of the 1964 Derby. Farther back, War Admiral, the 1937 Triple Crown champion, can be found on both the male and female sides of Sea Hero’s pedigree.

Sea Hero’s female breeding is also impressive. His 21-year-old dam, Glowing Tribute, was a multiple stakes winner who produced four stakes winners before Sea Hero.

When Paul Mellon, Sea Hero’s 85-year-old breeder and owner, decided to reduce his stable last year, 29 broodmares were sold. Glowing Tribute, three of her daughters and one of her granddaughters were sold for $3.475 million.

“The reasons (for selling the horses) may not be pleasant to talk about,” Mellon said. “But they are nevertheless real. At my age, I cannot know how much longer I will live. So I am selling horses so I can concentrate entirely on winning races.”

Glowing Tribute’s purchase price of $460,000 was lower than her credentials deserved because of her age. John Gaines bought her and she is now in foal to Summer Squall, winner of the 1990 Preakness.

Getting back to dosage, Rasmussen defended the system Friday by saying, “We’re not gurus, and it’s a system that’s not esoteric.”

After Sea Hero’s victory a week ago, the time was right to return to the pulpit.

Horse Racing Notes

Marquetry is going to keep running in the John Henry Handicap until he gets it right. Trainer Bobby Frankel’s 6-year-old, second to Pharisien in the Hollywood Park stake in 1991 and runner-up to Notorious Pleasure last year, is part of the nine-horse field for the $150,000 race on Sunday. Frankel is running another horse, Rainbow Corner, who will be coupled with Marquetry in the betting. Here’s the field, in post-position order: Marquetry, Lanner, Daros, Alnasr Alwasheek, River Majesty, Stark South, Rainbow Corner, Leger Cat and Jahafil. Alnasr Alwasheek is the high weight at 120 pounds, followed by Marquetry with 117 and Jahafic with 116. The race, known as the Century Handicap before 1986, is 1 1/8 miles on grass.

Frankel is also running an entry in today’s $300,000 Golden Gate Handicap at Golden Gate Fields. Val Des Bois and Never Black have only three horses--Norwich, Portoferraio and Valenti--to beat in the 1 1/8-mile grass race. . . . Sky Beauty and Educated Risk are the heavy favorites in today’s $150,000 Acorn at Belmont Park, the start of New York’s three-race series for 3-year-old fillies. Sky Beauty finished second to Eliza last year in the Eclipse Award voting for best 2-year-old filly and ran second to Dispute in her only start this year. Dispute beat Eliza last week in the Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs. Educated Risk was second to Eliza in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Stakes.

Wallenda and Grand Jewel won’t run in next Saturday’s Preakness, but may hook up in the Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont Park on May 23 en route to the Belmont Stakes on June 5. . . . Next Saturday’s Pimlico Special is shaping up as a seven-horse race--Devils His Due, Strike The Gold, Pistols And Roses, Ibex, Valley Crossing, Conte Di Savoya and Waki Warrior. . . . The crowd of 136,817 at Churchill Downs was the fifth largest in Kentucky Derby history, but the television ratings were the worst ever. The number of viewers was down almost 20% from last year and it was off about 10% from 1991, the previous lowest year. This year’s Derby was an attractive betting race--the favorite, Prairie Bayou, was $4.40-1--but the 19-horse field lacked a standout.