POP MUSIC : A Match Made in Grammy Heaven : Whitney Houston’s smash ‘I Will Always Love You’ has everything that sways voting members--it’s well-crafted, anthemic and was a huge radio hit--making the superstar the front-runner for the 36th annual awards

Whitney Houston’s “I Will Always Love You” heads into Grammy season with more of a can’t-miss aura than any record since the 1985 superstar spectacular “We Are the World.”

Her smash ballad from “The Bodyguard” is brimming with traits that Grammy voters prize in a record of the year: It’s immaculately crafted, dramatic and anthemic and was a huge hit in a variety of radio formats.

The record even gets bonus points for being a comeback of sorts (before the success of the soundtrack album, Houston had been briefly eclipsed in the pop-diva sweepstakes by Mariah Carey) and for having a Nashville connection (Dolly Parton’s original recording of the song was a country hit in the ‘70s).

Besides the best record competition, the 30-year-old superstar is expected to be a finalist for best album, best female pop vocal and best female R&B; vocal in the 36th annual Grammy competition. Nominations will be announced Thursday.

Houston’s chief competition in the album and single races is likely to include Billy Joel, Sting, U2, Janet Jackson and Rod Stewart.

The Grammys reflect the tastes of the 8,000 voting members of the National Academy of Recording Arts & Sciences--artists, songwriters, producers and others involved in the creative and technical areas of recording.

Grammy voters have historically been conservative (the Rolling Stones have never won a Grammy in regular competition) but they are gradually getting hipper (U2 has won four awards in the last five years).

Here’s how the nominations should shape up this year:

Best Album

“The Bodyguard” soundtrack’s massive success practically ensures that it will be nominated, but the album will have trouble actually winning the award.

That’s because it was an uneven collection of six prime songs by Houston and six filler cuts by other performers. Plus, there will be competition from Grammy perennials Sting and Joel.

Sting has won 10 Grammys since 1981, a total topped only by Michael Jackson’s 11 during the same period. With “Ten Summoner’s Tales,” Sting returned to the 2-million sales success of his first two solo releases--both of which were nominated in this category.

Joel, a five-time winner, personifies the key word in the Grammy lexicon-- mainstream. And “River of Dreams,” his first album in four years, was widely regarded as his best work in a decade.

U2 is the most respected rock band of the ‘80s and ‘90s--a band so big that even middle-aged Grammy voters are aware of its significance. As a result, “Zooropa” will probably land a nomination.

Despite her popular appeal, Janet Jackson has won only one Grammy--and it’s in the lower-profile music video field. Grammy voters prefer big, dramatic voices (think Houston and Carey) and they haven’t shown much fondness for youthful dance music (which explains why Madonna has never won). Still, Jackson’s sales punch should be enough to bring her a nomination here for “janet.”

Also possible: Carey’s “Music Box,” the “Aladdin” soundtrack, Kenny G’s “Breathless,” Rod Stewart’s “Unplugged . . . and Seated,” R.E.M.’s “Automatic for the People” and Donald Fagen’s “Kamakiriad.”

What about Frank Sinatra’s “Duets” and the all-star “Common Thread: The Songs of the Eagles”? Both albums were released after the cutoff date for this year’s Grammys, which cover the period from Oct. 1, 1992, to Sept. 30.

Best Single

“I Will Always Love You” looks so unbeatable in this category that the four other nominees seem like sacrificial lambs.

Joel can’t really complain: He won this award in 1979 with “Just the Way You Are.” The pop veteran is likely to be back in the running with “The River of Dreams,” his biggest non-novelty hit in a decade.

Peabo Bryson and Regina Belle are also expected to be nominated with “A Whole New World,” the love theme from “Aladdin.” The lush, old-fashioned ballad will appeal to older voters who are turned off by rap, grunge and metal. The song was an even bigger hit than Bryson and Celine Dion’s “Beauty and the Beast,” a best single finalist last year.

Rod Stewart has never been nominated for best album or best single, but his graceful version of Van Morrison’s “Have I Told You Lately” should change his luck. It’s in the tender, acoustic style of Eric Clapton’s “Tears in Heaven,” last year’s big winner.

Sting’s hypnotic “Fields of Gold” wasn’t a big pop hit, but it has been a fixture on adult-contemporary radio for more than six months. This classy, relatively uncommercial single could fill the “quality” spot taken last year by k.d. lang’s sensual “Constant Craving.”

Jackson and Carey will probably cancel each other out in the balloting with their smooth summertime smashes, “That’s the Way Love Goes” and “Dreamlover,” respectively. Other long shots: UB40’s “Can’t Help Falling in Love,” Soul Asylum’s “Runaway Train,” R.E.M.’s “Everybody Hurts,” Tina Turner’s “I Don’t Wanna Fight” and Kenny G’s “Forever in Love.”

Best New Artist

Toni Braxton has gone on to big things since she made her debut on the 1992 “Boomerang” soundtrack, but her main advantage over the female trio SWV is that she’s a solo artist. The winner in this category is almost always a solo performer or a group with a strong lead personality. The other likely nominees: R&B; vocal group Shai, album-rock faves Stone Temple Pilots and recent Rolling Stone cover boys Blind Melon.

The laundry list of 222 eligible performers also includes balladeers Joshua Kadison and Brian McKnight and such hit groups as the Cranberries, Jade, Silk and Ace of Base.

Other Categories

Grammy rules were changed this year so that albums no longer compete with singles. All entries listed in the following performance categories are singles or album tracks--except in the traditional-pop and alternative contests, which are open to albums only.

Best Pop Vocal Performance, Female--”I Will Always Love You” is a cinch to give Houston her third award in this category. The other likely nominees: Carey’s “Dreamlover,” k.d. lang’s “Miss Chatelaine,” Tina Turner’s “I Don’t Wanna Fight,” Janet Jackson’s “If.”

Pop Male--With “Have I Told You Lately,” Rod Stewart has a good chance to finally win his first Grammy. But he’s hardly a shoo-in. The likely competition: Joel’s “River of Dreams,” Sting’s “Fields of Gold,” Michael Bolton’s “To Love Somebody,” Aaron Neville’s “Don’t Take Away My Heaven.” Long shot: Donald Fagen’s “On the Dunes.” Really long shot: Michael Jackson’s “Will You Be There.”

Pop Duo or Group--Male-female duets have won here in four of the last six years, which is good news for Bryson and Belle’s “A Whole New World,” Celine Dion and Clive Griffin’s “When I Fall in Love,” and Vanessa Williams and Brian McKnight’s “Love Is.” Also: R.E.M.’s “Everybody Hurts,” UB40’s “Can’t Help Falling in Love.”

Traditional Pop--From the inauguration gala to her Las Vegas concerts, Barbra Streisand probably made more news last year than she had in the previous 10 combined. All that attention can’t hurt her chances of winning her ninth Grammy with “Back to Broadway.” Also: Tony Bennett’s “Steppin’ Out,” Diane Schuur’s “Love Songs,” Rosemary Clooney’s “Do You Miss New York?,” Anne Murray’s “Croonin.’ ”

Rock Solo--Grammy voters love to cap a dramatic comeback with an award or two. Think: Tina Turner and Bonnie Raitt. That bodes well for Meat Loaf, who made last year’s most astonishing comeback with the No. 1 smash “I’d Do Anything for Love (But I Won’t Do That).” But his competition is going to be classy: Peter Gabriel’s “Steam,” Sting’s “Demolition Man,” Neil Young’s “All Along the Watchtower,” Tina Turner’s “Proud Mary.”

Rock Duo or Group--U2 all but owns this category. The band is likely to win here for the fourth time in seven years with the title track from the “Zooropa” album. The other likely nominees: Aerosmith’s “Cryin’,” Soul Asylum’s “Runaway Train,” Blind Melon’s “No Rain,” Bob Dylan/Roger McGuinn/Tom Petty/Neil Young/ Eric Clapton/George Harrison’s “My Back Pages.” Long shots in this extremely competitive category: Guns N’ Roses’ “Yesterdays,” Red Hot Chili Peppers’ “Soul to Squeeze,” Spin Doctors’ “Two Princes.”

Hard Rock--Stone Temple Pilots’ “Plush,” last year’s hottest album-rock track, has the edge over Alice in Chains’ “Down in a Hole,” AC/DC’s “Highway to Hell,” Smashing Pumpkins’ “Cherub Rock” and Living Colour’s “Leave It Alone.”

Metal--Keep an eye on Slayer and Ice-T’s “Disorder” from the “Judgment Night” soundtrack, which consists of unlikely pairings of metal and rap acts. Grammy voters love high-concept collaborations--though they tend to think more along the lines of Streisand & Barry Gibb. Also: Megadeth’s “Angry Again,” Anthrax’s “Hy Pro Glo,” White Zombie’s “Thunder Kiss ‘65,” Suicidal Tendencies’ “Institutionalized.”

Alternative--U2 (“Zooropa”) is probably headed for a second Grammy here, though they’ll be squaring off against two other massive bands, R.E.M. (“Automatic for the People”) and Nirvana (“In Utero”). Also: Paul Westerberg’s “14 Songs,” Smashing Pumpkins’ “Siamese Dream.”

R&B; Female--Houston’s remake of Chaka Khan’s “I’m Every Woman” is almost sure to give the pop queen her first R&B; Grammy. That means Janet Jackson will come up short again , despite a powerhouse entry (“That’s the Way Love Goes”). Also: Toni Braxton’s “Another Sad Love Song,” Aretha Franklin’s “Someday We’ll All Be Free,” Patti LaBelle’s “All Right Now.”

R&B; Male--Luther Vandross personifies the mix of class and commerciality that Grammy voters love, so he could be headed for his third win here in four years with “Heaven Knows.” Also: Babyface’s “For the Cool in You,” Ray Charles’ “A Song for You,” Tevin Campbell’s “Can We Talk,” Teddy Pendergrass’ “Voodoo.”

R&B; Duo or Group--The front-runners are SWV’s “Weak,” which hit No. 1 on both the pop and R&B; charts, and Sade’s “No Ordinary Love,” which was featured in the hit movie “Indecent Proposal.” Also: Jodeci’s “Lately,” Shai’s “Baby I’m Yours,” Tony Toni Tone’s “If I Had No Loot.”

Rap Solo--Grammy voters will feel obliged to acknowledge the triple-platinum success of Dr. Dre’s solo debut, “The Chronic,” represented by the track “Let Me Ride.” Also: MC Lyte’s “Ice Cream Dream,” Paperboy’s “Ditty,” LL Cool J’s “Stand By Your Man,” Positive K’s “I Got a Man.”

Rap Duo or Group--The big question is how severely Snoop Doggy Dogg’s recent arrest on murder charges will hurt the chances of Dr. Dre and Snoop’s “Nuthin’ But a ‘G’ Thang,” which would otherwise be the likely winner. It’ll probably cost it the award--especially given the strength of the competition: Salt-N-Pepa’s “Shoop,” Tag Team’s “Whoomp! (There It Is),” Arrested Development’s “Revolution,” Naughty by Nature’s “Hip Hop Hooray.”

Country Female--Mary-Chapin Carpenter is looking to become the first woman to win here three years in a row. She’ll probably do it with “Passionate Kisses,” though Wynonna Judd will give her a run for the money with “Tell Me Why.” Also: Reba McEntire’s “It’s Your Call,” Tanya Tucker’s “Soon,” Trisha Yearwood’s “Walkaway Joe.”

Country Male--Alan Jackson’s spirited “Chattahoochee,” which was voted best single in October by the Country Music Assn., is the front-runner. Also: Garth Brooks’ “Ain’t Going Down (Til the Sun Comes Up),” Travis Tritt’s “Can I Trust You With My Heart,” Randy Travis’ “Look Heart, No Hands,” Dwight Yoakam’s “Ain’t That Lonely Yet.”

Country Duo or Group--Brooks & Dunn’s “Hard Workin’ Man” has the inside track. Kix Brooks and Ronnie Dunn have been voted best duo by the Country Music Assn. the last two years running. Also: Alabama’s “Reckless,” Diamond Rio’s “In a Week or Two,” Restless Heart’s “Mending Fences,” Sawyer Brown’s “Thank God for You.”