Past Year’s Issues May Still Have Hold on O.C.’s Future : Predictions: Unresolved questions such as El Toro and the Rams join crime and the economy as top concerns.

The firestorms are over, the homicide record is history, and the prospects are poor for the El Toro Marine base and thousands of defense jobs, all in a county grappling with strained race relations and the potential loss of its football team.

As Orange County limps out of 1993 and lurches into 1994, it faces unparalleled challenges to its livelihood and character that could shape life here for years to come.

In so many areas, from gang prevention to defense conversion, the county has much work ahead to try to create jobs, quell fears, heal wounds and guarantee its safety.

Some of the decisions will come from elected officials, others from the community as a whole. But all will be important and have an impact on Orange County in 1994.

Crime tops the agenda and for the first time in 12 years, residents responding to an annual survey conducted by UC Irvine said their concerns over safety issues now overshadow worries about the economy, immigration, traffic, schools, growth or housing.

Central to the crime concern is gang violence, and in 1993, Orange County leaders in government, law enforcement, education, the judicial system and business gathered at an unprecedented “anti-gang summit” to try to tackle a problem that many believe is already out of control.

With more than 75 gang-related slayings and more than 210 killings countywide, Orange County has set records in both categories. This year, extra efforts are being made to make sure those two records are not eclipsed again. Emphasis is being placed on school dress codes, curfews, after-school programs, job opportunities and yet another law enforcement task force.

Thomas Wright, director of Orange County’s juvenile hall, said it is imperative that this year families receive the broad support they need to keep their children out of gangs, whether it be from community organizations, churches, schools or social services agencies.

But Wright, like others, is not optimistic.

“The gang problem has been such a well-kept secret for such a long time that people will continue to say that it’s not happening until it gets so bad that they can’t ignore it,” Wright said. “Until then, the community at large will continue to look at police officers as the solution. In the meantime, the number of gangs is going to increase.”

Along with their concerns about gangs, Orange County frets frequently about race relations at a time when immigration issues rank high on a list of problem areas. The UC Irvine poll showed that almost the same percentage who worry about the economy and jobs--about one in five--now consider immigration the county’s biggest dilemma.

The arrival of new races and cultures causes anxiety among some white Orange County residents who equate legal and immigration with an escalation in crime and job loss. In the 1987 poll, 87% of the respondents said they believed the trend in quality of life in Orange County was going “very well” or “somewhat well.” By 1993, the number had dropped to 60%.

A poll this year by the Los Angeles Times shows that more Orange County residents believe that personal responsibility plays a part in the problems facing minority groups than those who put the blame on racism or economic injustice.

Additionally, nearly six in 10 respondents said that whites had a positive impact on the county while less than three in 10 said black and Latinos had a positive impact. Three in 10 respondents said Latinos had a negative impact, while 14% said blacks had a negative impact and 5% said whites had a negative impact.

While race relations in Orange County appear tense--especially when the topic is immigration--county residents continue to worry about the economy, which shows little sign of recovery and calls for creative news ways to adapt.

With a rapidly shrinking aerospace industry, for example, business leaders will be confronted continually with the dilemma of defense conversion, a metaphor for finding jobs where none exist.

Orange County has lost at least 20,000 defense industry jobs since the summer of 1990, and economic forecasters say that similar high-paying jobs will not emerge until at least the end of the decade. Even then, the new opportunities will be in the fields of biotechnology and the medical industry, not in aerospace.

While the U.S. government is of some help, doling out millions of dollars in “reinvestment” grants, the assistance will be relatively minimal in an area of the country where the defense industry has provided so much for so many.

The grants ultimately affect a relatively tiny part of the aerospace and defense industry, which employs more than 300,000 Californians, many of them in Orange and Los Angeles counties.

Meanwhile, companies are busily trying to readjust, shifting focus from building missiles to expanding into electronics and other areas.

For example, a Lockheed Corp. subsidiary, normally more well-versed in creating Stealth planes, is developing new methods of collecting fares for Orange County toll roads. Hughes Aircraft Co. also is marketing transportation technologies.

“Obviously the defense situation will get worse and firms have to be more aggressive in developing commercial products--from robotics to communications and space research--and marketing them,” said Anil Puri, Cal State Fullerton’s dean of economics and co-director of its economic studies unit.

“But it’s a very slow process,” he said. “Nothing is easy and defense firms know that. They can shrink but they can only shrink so far.”

Public officials have their own decisions to make, chief among them what to do with the El Toro Marine Corps Air Station. In June, an independent federal panel voted to close El Toro and move its 8,000-plus military and civilian jobs to Miramar Naval Air Station in San Diego.

Closing El Toro has been estimated to cost the Orange County economy some $500 million. But those who want the land used for a new airport say it could create 52,000 new jobs and contribute more than $4 billion to the local economy.

The question of how the 4,700-acre base will be redeveloped, however, has been overshadowed by political maneuvering reminiscent of the argument over the shape of the conference table at the Paris peace talks of the 1970s: who gets the seats on the planning agency board that oversees the base planning.

With new membership configurations emerging almost weekly, county supervisors announced last month that they had agreed on a nine-member planning board--all five supervisors, three members from Irvine and one from Lake Forest--but the makeup has already been challenged.

By mid-year, the new panel must be formed to begin studying options for the base, all of which are subject to federal environmental review. If Orange County officials cannot come to a compromise, the U.S. government may step in and decide what happens.

“We’ve got a challenge here and that is to sit down and make people realize that we’ve got a whole county here and we have to make some decisions that are in the best interests of the whole county,” said county Supervisor Thomas F. Riley, whose district encompasses the base. “We have already lost time here and it’s an emotional issue, but I want to get moving.”

Another emotional issue involves the rebuilding of Laguna Beach during the coming year, following a fierce wildfire that consumed 366 homes in October.

Immediately after the fire, the city seemed to unravel on several fronts: Many blamed the City Council for not approving a 3-million-gallon reservoir that some said would have helped quell the blaze; others said a strong environmental push in the city had swung too far and actually helped fuel the fire by favoring nature over safety; a debate raged over plans to reseed the area; and many, crushed by the instantaneous loss of their homes in a city they loved, didn’t know whom to hold accountable.

Although tensions have eased, real issues remain and all aren’t likely to be resolved in 1994. For instance, though the city has approved a rebuilding plan, many who lost their homes are discovering to their dismay that their insurance coverage isn’t nearly enough to allow them to rebuild the same size home.

Jeff Powers, a city planning commissioner and Canyon Acres resident who lost his home in the blaze, said he has discarded his personal timetable for rebuilding.

“At first, I hit the ground running and since then, I’ve thrown it all out the window,” Powers said. “I’ve got to figure out if I can even rebuild what I have. I think it would unrealistic for me to expect a lot within the next year.”

As the months pass, however, wounded feelings are slowly healing, Powers said.

“People are starting to come to deal with each other,” he said. “We are now becoming more solution-oriented rather than pointing fingers. Part of that solution is to accept the natural fate of our area. When we choose to live in an area like this, there will be times that man will not have control over nature and she is going to have her way.”

Numerous issues, such as what to do about the reservoir, are still unresolved. The city has approved the project, but only if it can be buried underground to keep a ridgeline intact. The Laguna Beach County Water District has rejected the compromise, insisting that the reservoir be kept above ground so it can provide the proper gravity to the water system.

While Laguna Beach contemplates its rebuilding, the city of Anaheim is confronting some of its own fears in 1994: namely, whether it will lose both its professional football team and the promised expansion of its biggest tourist attraction.

The Los Angeles Rams completed their 14th season in Anaheim today but poor attendance and the lack of adequate revenue-producing features at Anaheim Stadium such as luxury boxes have prompted the team to look elsewhere, especially toward Baltimore, St. Louis and Memphis, three cities that were recently denied in bids for an expansion franchise.

Because the team must give at least 15 months’ notice before moving, the Rams will be in Anaheim for at least the 1994-95 season. But beyond that, the prospects look bleak.

The team has attorneys looking at the legal implications of moving. The Rams’ lease with Anaheim expires in 2015, but an escape clause allows it to leave provided it pays off $30 million in bonds issued to expand the stadium when the team moved here in 1980.

Other cities are prepared to offer the Rams a much better financial deal than they now have in Anaheim. The difference in revenue between Anaheim and any of the other three cities from luxury boxes alone is estimated at between $15 million and $20 million a year, sources say.

Anaheim city officials say they support the team but are satisfied with their financial agreements with the Rams already in place and really don’t have much more money to offer.

But Rams officials say economic conditions have changed over the past decade, forcing them to see what other cities have in mind.

“We will be in Anaheim at least one more season,” said John Shaw, the team’s executive vice president. “Beyond that, a number of things can happen. We could stay or serve notice on the city that we intend to leave in 15 months. Obviously, economics and fan support are the two big issues. You can draw your own conclusions.”

The city of Anaheim is also in a quandary of a more serious financial nature: the fate of Westcot, a $3-billion Disney resort plan unveiled nearly three years ago amid much hoopla and promises of economic rebirth for Orange County.

The project cleared some impressive hurdles, including environmental and zoning approval by Anaheim’s planning commission and City Council, and resolution of the most troublesome of the lawsuits filed against Disney.

But in recent weeks, Westcot has shown some signs of collapse.

For one thing, Disney officials are requesting $800 million in public money for parking structures, freeway off-ramps, sewers and utility lines, which include a blend of federal, state and city funds. City officials have not determined how much they want to contribute.

Only two weeks ago, the director of the project resigned, raising new questions about where Westcot was headed and whether Disney was still willing to keep its commitment to the theme park. Top Disney officials didn’t offer much in the way of encouragement, acknowledging that the project has gone slower than expected. Ken Wong, senior vice president for Disney Development Co. in Burbank, said, “We still don’t have a project that pencils out.”

Even Disney Chairman Michael D. Eisner said that because of financial losses at Euro Disneyland in France, “I don’t even know if there’s going to be a Westcot. We’re at a real crossroads.”

Longtime Anaheim Councilman Irv Pickler said the possible departure of the Rams and the potential loss or delay of Westcot are two of his top concerns, but securing the future of Disneyland in the city far outweighs any concerns he has about the football team.

“The Rams don’t bring much dollars and cents to us,” he said. “You have your ups and downs as a city and if we can split on these two issues--win Westcot and lose the Rams--I think we’d be coming out on top.”