Raiders’ Playoff Chances Are Varied and Confusing : Pro football: But this much is certain--a victory over the Denver Broncos today at Coliseum would ensure postseason play for Los Angeles.

Just before the ball is kicked off at the Coliseum today, the Raiders might be tempted to pick it up and spike it in celebration.

That will be the case if, at a little before 1 p.m., the public address announcer, giving the results of the early games, tells the crowd, “Final score from Pittsburgh, the Cleveland Browns have defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers. . . . “

If Pittsburgh loses, the Raiders are in the playoffs.

But if the Steelers win, the Raiders will take the field knowing they must defeat the Denver Broncos in today’s regular-season finale to ensure a spot in the postseason.

Even if the Raiders lose and Pittsburgh wins, the Raiders could still be alive. If the Miami Dolphins lose to the New England Patriots earlier in the day by at least 17 points more than the Raiders’ margin of defeat, the Raiders would be rooting for their last remaining postseason hope, a Houston Oiler victory over the New York Jets in today’s late game. That complicated series of results would also put the Raiders into the playoffs.

Confused?

When the various scenarios were presented to Raider Coach Art Shell, he put his hand up to halt the conversation, shook his head and said: “We’ve just got to win.”

Indeed, the mind-set for the Raiders is to ignore the computers and the charts and the out-of-town scores and simply plan on guaranteeing themselves a playoff spot by beating Denver. Their opponents today also have something to play for. The Broncos already know they will be in the playoffs, but they don’t know where. A victory today would guarantee the Broncos a home game in next weekend’s opening round.

“We’re playing this like a playoff game,” Denver Coach Wade Phillips said, “because it is a great opportunity to play (a postseason game) at home.”

If recent history is any guide, today’s score probably will be close, with the Raiders having the edge.

They have won seven of the last eight meetings between the teams.

The Raiders have won five in a row over the Broncos at the Coliseum, the last Denver victory in L.A. coming in 1987.

But it hasn’t been easy. Thirteen of the last 20 games between these teams have been decided by three or fewer points, five of the games going into overtime.

When the clubs met at Denver’s Mile High Stadium this season, the Raiders won, 23-20, on a 53-yard field goal by Jeff Jaeger with 16 seconds to play.

On that cold October night, the leading rushers were Rod Bernstine for the Broncos and Greg Robinson for the Raiders.

Neither will be back for today’s rematch, causing major concern for both teams. Even if both make it into the playoffs, how far can they get without their leading ground gainers?

Bernstine rushed for 816 yards and scored four touchdowns before suffering a dislocated shoulder in last week’s loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Robinson suffered torn cartilage in his left knee against the Buffalo Bills.

How valuable had Robinson, a rookie, become to the Raiders?

His injury occurred four weeks ago, yet Robinson still leads the Raiders in rushing with 591 yards.

The Broncos will fill in with former Ram Robert Delpino, third-year player Reggie Rivers and multitalented rookie Glyn Milburn.

A week ago, the Raiders were still committed to Nick Bell, who had a bad first half in Green Bay with two fumbles and a dropped pass.

He wasn’t called upon in the second half, and is not expected to be called upon today, except on third-down, short-yardage plays.

If fullback Steve Smith, who has been hampered by a sore ankle, can play, he will. If not, the backfield will consist of Napoleon McCallum at fullback and rookie Randy Jordan at tailback.

The other Raider question mark this week hangs over the head of quarterback Jeff Hostetler.

He spent part of the second half of last week’s game in a Green Bay hospital after suffering a concussion when thrown to the frozen surface of Lambeau Field on a sack by Packer linebacker Tony Bennett.

Hostetler is expected to play, but he’ll be watched closely. If it turns out the game is meaningless, or if Hostetler receives another punishing blow, watch for the return of backup Vince Evans.