FEMA Seeks Forecast

The Federal Emergency Management Agency has asked scientists to estimate future seismic shaking in Los Angeles, Orange and Ventura counties to help the government decide where to spend money devoted to earthquake mitigation.

Richard Buck, a FEMA official, said Thursday the estimates will be used to decide how much money should go toward strengthening public buildings that were damaged in the Jan. 17 Northridge earthquake.

No repair projects will be scrapped even if the estimates show a high probability of future quake damage, he said. But decisions on earthquake mitigation measures that go beyond code requirements would be affected, Buck said.

Earthquake scientists who have been working since 1992 to calculate the probability of future quakes are participating. Their reports will be used to help analyze the benefits and costs of specific repair projects. A Sacramento consulting firm, Goettel & Horner, will do the analysis.

This is apparently the first time that the panel of scientists from various California universities and the U.S. Geological Survey, working under the auspices of the Southern California Earthquake Center at USC, has prepared probability estimates that will have a direct effect on how a government agency chooses to spend money on stemming quake hazards.

The project was revealed at a Thursday news briefing at the Earthquake Center. Many of the scientists have said that the probability of big earthquakes in the Southland has been increased by the 1992 Landers quake and the Northridge quake.

Kenneth Goettel, a geologist who is a partner in the Sacramento firm, said the study will provide estimates on the quake risks in 65 zones of urban Southern California.

“If you only have money to mitigate hazards in one building, you may do it where the highest risk is,” Goettel said. “But you might decide to move the building to a less risky area, or that the risks are too high to justify the costs.”

Goettel and FEMA emphasized that perceived quake risks would not be the only factors used in allocating the mitigation money. Political factors, including the desires of local officials to emphasize certain projects, such as seismic reinforcement of the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, are also considered.

“We also ask how many lives will be saved by mitigating hazards at specific locations,” Buck declared. “That is one method of determining what is most worth spending money on.”