NATIONAL LEAGUE PREVIEW : Braves Will Be Pursued but Are Unlikely to Be Caught

How would you like to wake up one morning and find yourself in the National League East? Think how the Florida Marlins must feel, surrounded by the toughest teams in the league, led by the still mighty Atlanta Braves.

It’s hardly conceivable to pick against a team that won 104 games and is still intact, and so we won’t. But when the Braves get to postseason play this time, they might want to lighten up a bit. While the Philadelphia Phillies were carrying around cans of beer in their clubhouse last fall, the Braves carried themselves as if they were at a summit conference.

Even so, few teams could lose Ron Gant and Chipper Jones, not have a closer and still be the division favorite. But if the Braves’ bullpen by committee falters, the Montreal Expos will be right there. And never count out the Phillies, a lesson the Braves learned last season.

The West is the division to be in. The San Francisco Giants and Dodgers got rid of the Braves, the Houston Astros and the Cincinnati Reds. But the Giants are only slightly favored here, and the Dodgers will battle them to the end, and that’s assuming a non-productive Darryl Strawberry. With his bat in the lineup, the Dodgers could win the title. It could all be decided in the final series of the season, which will again be at Dodger Stadium.

The Astros are solid and will battle the St. Louis Cardinals and the Cincinnati Reds for the new Central Division title. But for the Reds to challenge, pitcher Jose Rijo might have to visit his homeland again. When Rijo went into a slump last season, he went to the Dominican Republic and sacrificed a goat. He said it worked so well he’s considering sacrificing 12 more before opening day. . . . and so it goes in Cincinnati.

Look for the division playoffs to include the Braves, the Giants and the Astros. The wild-card team should be the Dodgers. But the Braves, with an influx of enthusiasm from four rookies, will win the pennant.

WEST DIVISION

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS

* 1993 finish, 103-59, second.

* Outlook: Pitching wins championships, as the Giants were reminded last season. Two of their starters had great seasons, John Burkett going 22-7 and Bill Swift 21-8, but they couldn’t do it alone. San Francisco since has signed Mark Portugal (18-4), and has closer Rod Beck, who had 48 saves, in a solid bullpen. Basically, this is the same team that won 103 games, it has an excellent manager in Dusty Baker, the best third baseman in the game in Matt Williams, and the best player in baseball, Barry Bonds. Bonds, second baseman Robby Thompson, Williams and catcher Kirt Manwaring all won gold gloves last season.

* New faces: Pitchers Portugal and Rich Monteleone.

* Must have: A solid performance from right fielder Willie McGee, who will fill Will Clark’s third spot in the batting order.

* Don’t have: Tom Lasorda’s Big Dodger in the sky . . . but Baker has his own version.

DODGERS

* 1993 finish, 81-81, fourth

* Outlook: Who are these guys, hitting home runs, throwing out runners and coming from behind to win? Maybe it was only spring training, but the Dodgers showed surprising power, speed and depth except in the area they are most famous for--starting pitching.

This team doesn’t have an ace and really wouldn’t need one if the offense continued to pound out home runs and the defense kept playing effectively. But pitching could be a problem. Pedro Astacio could be the ace, but he has been slowed by heart tests and is behind. Kevin Gross, slowed by shoulder tendinitis, and Ramon Martinez remain questionable.

Enter Chan Ho Park, a 20-year-old South Korean right-hander who couldn’t have better timing. He throws hard, 95 m.p.h., and has an array of pitches that will find him a place in the rotation, maybe as soon as this week. Closer Todd Worrell appears recovered from arm problems but isn’t dazzling, and if he falters, look for rookie Darren Dreifort, who is the closer of the future, to get a shot. And Darryl Strawberry? This team finally has power and speed without Strawberry, but his bat could be the deciding factor in the team’s bid to overtake the Giants.

* New faces: Pitchers Park, Dreifort and Gary Wayne. Second baseman Delino DeShields.

* Must have: Quick decisions by management on starting pitching so the team doesn’t get behind early.

* Don’t have: A dominating left-handed reliever.

COLORADO ROCKIES

* 1993 finish, 67-95, sixth.

* Outlook: The Rockies finished third in the league in hitting last season--first at home in the thin air of Mile High Stadium--and could do better this season after signing Howard Johnson, Ellis Burks and Walt Weiss and re-signing league batting champion Andres Galarraga. But their pitching is another story. Manager Don Baylor used 15 starters last season and they compiled the worst earned-run average in the majors.

* New faces: Johnson, Burks, Weiss, pitchers Mike Harkey and Marvin Freeman.

* Must have: A solid season by starters David Nied, who was sidelined 91 days last season with a partial ligament tear, Harkey and Greg Harris.

* Don’t have: Enough seats in Mile High Stadium for the Colorado fans, who set the single-season attendance record last season--4.4 million.

SAN DIEGO PADRES

* 1993 finish: 61-101, seventh.

* Outlook: This team doesn’t look so bad on paper, but there is no bench to speak of. The Padres have a solid outfield with Tony Gwynn, Phil Plantier and Derek Bell, as long as they stay injury-free. At last report, Gwynn’s left knee still was sore, a perennial problem that usually surfaces late in the season. The last time Gwynn--one of the the best hitters in baseball--finished a complete season was in 1989.

It’s a marvel that pitcher Andy Benes survived the team’s fire sale last season. . . . but stay tuned.

* New faces: Second baseman Bip Roberts and third baseman Archi Cianfrocco.

* Must have: New ownership.

* Don’t have: A very good team.

EAST DIVISION

ATLANTA BRAVES

* 1993 finish: 104-58, first.

* Outlook: This team still has everything, including three Cy Young Award winners--Steve Bedrosian, Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux--and a lineup from the No. 1 slot of Deion Sanders to No. 6 that needs a Cy Young winner to get them out.

The four returning starters--Glavine, Maddux, Steve Avery and John Smoltz--won 75 games last season. Left-hander Kent Mercker has won the fifth spot.

The team lost leadoff hitter Otis Nixon to free agency and, with Gant gone, the middle of the order is not as powerful. But the Braves still have Jeff Blauser, who hit .305, had 184 hits, 15 home runs and 110 runs scored; Terry Pendleton (17 homers, 33 doubles and 172 hits), Fred McGriff (37 homers, 101 RBIs) and David Justice (40 homers, 120 RBIs). Sanders, who predicts stardom, will take Nixon’s leadoff role.

The Braves will go with closer Greg McMichael, and have several relief pitchers who are capable, but this is the area that has cost them. In postseason play the last three years, they are 5-13 in one-run games and lost the 1991 and 1992 World Series and the 1993 National League pennant.

* New faces: Outfielder Dave Gallagher, who was acquired in the Pete Smith trade with the Mets, catcher Charlie O’Brien and closer Gregg Olson, who will start the season on the disabled list. Rookie Tony Tarasco will get most of the playing time in left, vacated by Gant when he broke his leg in the off-season and was released, and rookie Javier Lopez will be the starting catcher. Shortstop Chipper Jones was about to take Gant’s vacated job in left field before suffering a season-ending knee injury.

* Must have: A closer to step up out of a talented group.

* Don’t have: Francisco Cabrera, Sid Bream, Brian Hunter, Damon Berryhill, Greg Olson, Jay Howell and Marvin Freeman.

MONTREAL EXPOS

* 1993 finish: 94-68, second.

* Outlook: They have had a dismal spring, but if the Expos can get off to a quick start, this team is strong enough to challenge the Braves.

They have a strong outfield in Moises Alou, Marquis Grissom and Larry Walker, each of whom drove in at least 85 runs last season. They also hit 59 home runs.

The bullpen is deep, led by John Wetteland, who had 43 saves in 49 opportunities. But the Expos, who believed that power pitching would finally put them in first place this season, let Dennis Martinez go to free agency and replaced him with Pedro Martinez, whom they acquired from the Dodgers for Delino DeShields. * New faces: Martinez, first baseman Randy Milligan and shortstop Freddie Benavides. Rookies include outfielder Rondell White and first baseman Cliff Floyd, who had a disappointing spring.

* Must have: Moises Alou to come back strong from his ankle injury, which he suffered last season, so that Grissom can move to the leadoff spot.

* Don’t have: DeShields, who provided speed, runs and left-handed punch.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

* 1993 finish: 97-65, first.

* Outlook: A strong team returns minus its most celebrated player, relief pitcher Mitch Williams, and starter Terry Mulholland, who was traded to the New York Yankees.

A big key to this team’s success last season was a fast start, and that might not be possible this season because of injuries and John Kruk’s continuing recovery from testicular cancer.

Still, the team that led the league last season in runs, hits and walks remains strong offensively. Lenny Dykstra scored 143 runs and Darren Daulton drove in 105. * New faces: Reliever Doug Jones, who came from Houston in the Williams trade, and right-handed reliever Bobby Munoz, who came from New York in the Mulholland deal.

* Must have: A quick return by relief pitcher-philosopher Larry Andersen, who had arthroscopic surgery on his knee and will sit out about a month.

* Don’t have: Williams, who did save 43 games. The Phillies hope Norm Charlton, whom they signed as a free agent, will recover soon from elbow surgery. Meanwhile, Jones will have a chance to close.

NEW YORK METS

* 1993 finish: 59-103, seventh.

* Outlook: They are doing what they can to change their bad-boy image, but what happens on the field will ultimately change the perception of this team. Manager Dallas Green has set a goal of getting his team to .500, but the Mets might be only slightly improved from 1993, when they finished with the worst record in the majors.

Bobby Bonilla, the Mets’ only power hitter, has been moved back to third base, not his best position. And they still have Dwight Gooden, who is coming off consecutive losing seasons. But they made a good trade, sending pitcher Anthony Young to the Chicago Cubs for shortstop Jose Vizcaino.

* New faces: Vizcaino, Kevin McReynolds, first baseman David Segui, acquired in a trade with Baltimore, pitcher Pete Smith from the Braves, shortstop Luis Rivera.

* Must have: A sound Bonilla, who has been limited since March 15 because of a strained right rib cage.

* Don’t have: Eddie Murray, Vince Coleman, Howard Johnson and Sid Fernandez, some of whom the Mets were happy to see go in an effort to sweeten a sour clubhouse.

FLORIDA MARLINS

* 1993 finish: 64-98, sixth.

* Outlook: They are building, so don’t expect much. This team has one of the best closers in the game, Bryan Harvey, but getting to use him effectively will not be easy, what with an unproven rotation and a weak offense.

Their three big pluses are Orestes Destrade (20 home runs, 87 RBIs), the only Marlin who hit more than 12 homers and drove in more than 80 runs; Gary Sheffield, who has moved from third base to right field, hit .292 with 20 homers--eight after he was acquired, and center fielder Chuck Carr, who led the league with 58 stolen bases.

* New faces: Third baseman Dave Magadan, who starts the season on the disabled list; right-handed pitcher Mark Gardner, shortstop Kurt Abbott, first baseman Greg Colbrunn.

* Must have: Patience and a sense of humor to play in this division.

* Don’t have: Very much of anything.

CENTRAL DIVISION

HOUSTON ASTROS

* 1993 finish: 85-77, third.

* Outlook: With rookie Manager Terry Collins, this young team has the best chance to win the division title because of its good starting pitching, solid offense and good defense.

Doug Drabek and Greg Swindell, both flops last season, are too good not to come back, joining Pete Harnisch (16-9) and Darryl Kile (15-8). Closer Mitch Williams may give Collins a few ulcers, but will be good for 30-35 saves.

The infield of Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Andujar Cedeno and Ken Caminiti combined for 65 home runs last season. The outfield is strong, with left fielder Luis Gonzales, who hit .300 with 15 homers, and rookie right fielder James Mouton, who scored 126 runs at triple-A Tucson. * New faces: Mouton, Williams, reliever Mike Hampton.

* Must have: Comebacks from Drabek and Swindell.

* Don’t have: Much bullpen depth.

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

* 1993 finish: 87-75, third.

* Outlook: Had the pitching not collapsed last season, Manager Joe Torre could go into this season resting much easier. Bob Tewksbury has had shoulder stiffness recently, but the starting rotation is good, albeit inconsistent. Donovan Osborne, the No. 2 starter, is out for the season after shoulder surgery.

Otherwise, the team has no weak links in the everyday lineup, and is deep on the bench. The offense is strong, with first baseman Gregg Jefferies coming off a .342 season and right fielder Mark Whiten coming off a 25-homer season.

* New faces: Pitcher Rick Sutcliffe.

* Must have: Better defense. The Cardinals had 159 errors, fewer than only San Diego and Colorado. Also need an effective season from reliever Mike Perez.

* Don’t have: Catcher Tom Pagnozzi, who is out until May after knee surgery, and stopper Lee Smith, traded to the New York Yankees.

CINCINNATI REDS

* 1993 season: 73-89, fifth.

* Outlook: It looks like more of the same for the Reds, and that’s a shame, because without the distractions and injuries, their talent could put them in contention.

Closer Rod Dibble, who hasn’t been able to find the strike zone, got upset with Manager Davey Johnson because he sent Dibble to a doctor. Dibble will start the season on the disabled list with tendinitis. Johnson’s job is in jeopardy.

“If I don’t win the first (game), I might not be here for the second one,” Johnson joked, kind of.

The bullpen looks good and the starting rotation is solid, led by ace Jose Rijo.

* New faces: Second baseman Bret Boone, pitchers Jeff Brantley, Erik Hanson and Chuck McElroy.

* Must have: A healthy Kevin Mitchell, especially with Chris Sabo gone to free agency.

* Don’t have: Bobby Kelly . . . Roberto Kelly is back.

CHICAGO CUBS

* 1993 season: 84-78, fourth.

* Outlook: The Cubs still have Ryne Sandberg, Mark Grace and will again have Shawon Dunston, but even they will have a tough time playing behind a shaky pitching staff.

Mike Morgan, coming off a 10-15 season, is the opening-day starter. New Manager Tom Trebelhorn does have closer Randy Myers, who set a league record with 53 saves last season. Now, if only the starters and mid-relievers can keep the team in the game that long.

* New faces: Starting pitchers Willie Banks, Anthony Young, acquired from the Mets, and rookie Steve Trachsel, the Cubs’ best pitcher this spring, and reliever Larry Luebbers.

* Must have: Optimism.

* Don’t have: A lot to offer the best fans in baseball.

PITTSBURGH PIRATES

* 1993 season: 75-87, fifth.

* Outlook: They have suspect pitching but they have Manager Jim Leyland, who is trying to rebuild the club for the second time. But even Leyland, who can get the most out of a staff, might not be able to pull this one off.

Last season, the Pirates compiled a 4.77 ERA, the second-worst in the league and the franchise’s most dismal performance in 40 years. The team was smart to volunteer to leave the East Division for the Central, but their pitching staff, and problems, remain.

* New faces: First baseman Brian Hunter.

* Must have: A bullpen. The one that opens the season has 15 saves.

* Don’t have: A lot of hope.