TIMES ORANGE COUNTY POLL : GOP Support for Challenger Unz Spells Trouble for Wilson

Gov. Pete Wilson’s reelection campaign is running into trouble in Republican-rich Orange County, with one-third of GOP voters saying they intend to cast their ballot for his relatively unknown opponent in the June 7 primary and a fifth saying they will defect to the Democrats in November, according to a Times Orange County Poll.

In a show of voter dissatisfaction with Wilson, only 38% of voters say he is doing an “excellent” or “good” job as governor, reflecting his flagging popularity among county voters.

At the same time, the poll has good news for Democratic U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein, whose Republican rivals are not generating the overwhelming excitement among local GOP voters necessary to carry the state in November. The GOP candidate usually needs more than a 2-to-1 margin in Orange County in the general election to offset the Democratic strongholds in Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay Area.

Wilson’s troubles appear significant, and are not limited to the primary. If the November election were held today, he would manage a 52%-to-35% margin in Orange County over Democrat Kathleen Brown--and would do even worse against Democrat John Garamendi, according to the poll. Wilson’s support in the Brown contest shows him merely running even with the party’s registration.

Just three months ago at the state GOP convention, Wilson’s political consultant, George Gorton, boasted that the governor’s approval rating was higher among Orange County Republicans than it was statewide. The notion that party conservatives were dissatisfied with Wilson was “a myth,” he said.

But the latest Times Orange County Poll, conducted by Mark Baldassare and Associates, mirrors what other statewide surveys have shown in recent days--Ron K. Unz, the wealthy and conservative 32-year-old computer entrepreneur who has reached into his deep pockets to fund his quixotic bid for the governorship, has cut into Wilson’s support. The poll of 600 Orange County registered voters was conducted May 19 to 22.

Among likely Republican voters, Wilson holds a 54%-to-36% margin over Unz. A recent statewide Field Poll showed Wilson with 53% among likely GOP voters and Unz with 29%.

Rena Schlueter, a 29-year-old certified public accountant from Orange, is a Wilson defector. Despite knowing little about Unz, she said in an interview, she plans to vote for the GOP challenger in the primary and support the Democratic nominee in November.

Wilson “has never done anything for me; I don’t think he’s done anything, period,” said Schlueter, who voted for Wilson in 1990.

Baldassare sees problems for the governor. “Wilson is facing difficulty within his own party and has a very difficult road ahead of him in the November election because a number of Republicans seem willing to defect,” Baldassare said.

“It certainly does not help that he has an embarrassing situation with one-third of the Republicans here, in a Republican stronghold, supporting an unknown (Unz) against an incumbent,” Baldassare added.

The only good news for Wilson in this poll, Baldassare said, is that Garamendi--who has more appeal to Republican and centrist voters than Brown--is not heavily favored by Democratic voters and is not expected to be the Democratic candidate.

In Orange County, Brown holds a 20-point lead over Garamendi among likely Democratic voters--49% to 29%--with liberal state Sen. Tom Hayden (D-Santa Monica) receiving 9%.

History has proven the importance of strong Orange County support for Republican candidates. In his first gubernatorial race in 1990, Wilson beat the Democratic nominee, Feinstein, by a 2-to-1 margin here. It carried him over the top in statewide returns and he won the election by three percentage points.

Dave Soifer, a 36-year-old municipal employee from Anaheim, was another Republican voter who said he would support Unz and the Democratic nominee in November as a protest against Wilson.

Soifer said he blames Wilson for signing off on state budgets that were balanced by passing along higher fees and and less revenue to city and county governments.

“I’m just very unhappy about the way Wilson has been running things,” he said.

But not all voters are prepared to blame Wilson for the state’s troubles. Jennifer Kennedy, a 32-year-old Yorba Linda resident, will vote for him in June though she rated his job performance as “fair.”

“I don’t really see California coming out of the recession like the rest of the country,” Kennedy said. “I am probably more pessimistic than most because I am in the aerospace industry (which has suffered severe cutbacks due to military downsizing). I think a lot more needs to be done for the state in general.”

Thomas Saari, 53, of Dana Point blames former Republican Gov. George Deukmejian for leaving Wilson “with a hell of a mess.”

Wilson “got left with a trash bucket full of stuff and he can only do so much to try to improve things,” Saari said in expressing his strong support for the governor.

Saari, however, said he will vote for Feinstein’s reelection to the U.S. Senate because he is not excited about the GOP candidates.

Among the three Republicans in the Senate race, former Rep. William E. Dannemeyer leads Rep. Michael Huffington of Santa Barbara by only four percentage points among all Republicans, but when only likely Republican voters are considered, the picture reverses and Huffington leads Dannemeyer by seven points, according to the poll. The third candidate, Riverside County businesswoman Kate Squires, is a distant third in the poll.

And while Huffington or Dannemeyer would beat Feinstein if the election were held today, the margins are similar to the November, 1992, election, when then-Sen. John Seymour of Orange County, a Republican, beat Feinstein in local balloting but lost the statewide vote.

* STILL NOT SURE: Voters undecided on county clerk-recorder, treasurer. A31

Times Orange County Poll

How Statewide Races Are Shaping Up

GOVERNOR’S RACE

Half of Orange County’s Republican voters say Gov. Pete Wilson is doing a good or excellent job. Among all county voters, however, three in 10 say he’s doing poorly. His Republican primary opponent, Ron K. Unz, is getting a third of the support. If the November election were held today, Wilson would beat Kathleen Brown in Orange County by 17 percentage points and John Garamendi by six percentage points.

How would you rate Pete Wilson’s job performance as governor?

O.C. Younger 55 or voters Republicans Democrats than 55 older Excellent, good 38% 49% 24% 34% 48% Fair 31 28 34 33 28 Poor 30 22 41 32 24 Don’t know 1 1 1 1 0

If the June 7 Republican primary election for governor were held today, who would you vote for?

Republicans Likely voters Pete Wilson 58% 54% Ron K. Unz 32 36 Other 1 0 Don’t know 9 10

If the June 7th Democratic primary election for governor were held today, who would you vote for?

Democrats Likely voters Kathleen Brown 42% 49% John Garamendi 32 29 Tom Hayden 10 9 Other 1 0 Don’t know 15 13

If the November election were held today and included the following two candidates for governor, would you vote for. . . .

Wilson vs. Brown O.C. voters Republicans Democrats Pete Wilson 52% 71% 26% Kathleen Brown 35 18 61 Other 5 4 4 Don’t know 8 7 9

Wilson vs. Garamendi O.C. voters Republicans Democrats Pete Wilson 47% 66% 24% John Garamendi 41 25 65 Other 3 2 1 Don’t know 9 7 10

U.S. SENATE RACE

Former Rep. William E. Dannemeyer of Fullerton is running a tight race against Rep. Michael Huffington of Santa Barbara in the Republican primary race for the U.S. Senate. If the November election were held today, more than half of Orange County voters would choose Dannemeyer or Huffington over Democrat Dianne Feinstein.

If the June 7 Republican primary election for U.S. senator were held today, who would you vote for?

Republicans Likely voters William E. Dannemeyer 39% 35% Michael Huffington 35 42 Kate Squires 8 8 Other 1 1 Don’t know 17 14

If the November election were held today and included the following two candidates for U.S. senator, would you vote for. . . .

O.C. voters

Michael Huffington: 54%

Dianne Feinstein: 37%

Other: 1%

Don’t know: 8%

O.C. voters

William E. Dannemeyer: 54%

Dianne Feinstein: 39%

Other: 1%

Don’t know: 6%

Source: Times Orange County Poll