On View : And the Emmy, Maybe, Goes to . . .

Can producer Steven Bochco top himself? That’s the big Sunday night question when the Emmy Awards unfurl on the stage of Pasadena Civic Auditorium, broadcast by ABC.

Bochco’s “NYPD Blue” made Emmy history with its 26 nominations this year, breaking his “Hill Street Blues” record of 21 in 1981. The drama will now center on whether he can surpass the record set by “Hill Street Blues” for most wins in a single year--eight.

My prediction: a tie.

Trying to outguess the Emmys is always gutsy, but next to impossible unless you just happen to know what episodes were submitted to the judging panels and were lucky enough to have caught them all during the past TV season. In the leading series categories, that means having to be familiar with up to 30 segments, since nominees for best comedy and drama submit two shows as examples of their best work and actors enter one apiece.

To atone for the sin of an occasional social life, this TV pundit pooled tapes of the top contenders and endured 65 hours of dueling cops and crackheads, snide dogs, stricken children and (gasp!) those miniseries. I finally emerged--bug-eyed, breathless and officially brain dead --with a rare account of what Emmy voters actually voted on.

Last year I scored 7 wins out of 11 categories by pure dumb luck. This year, dumbstruck after doing my homework, let’s see:

DRAMA SERIES

“NYPD Blue’s” bandwagon could have crashed smack into the “Picket Fences” of Bochco’s former “L.A. Law” protege David E. Kelly, but “Picket” (last year’s champ), in my view, picked a weak episode among its two submissions: “Buried Alive,” in which Dr. Jill’s father gets a traffic ticket and everybody indicts everybody else over crimes of the heart. “NYPD Blue” entered its strong pilot show and “NYPD Lou,” as in Lou the Werewolf.

Kelley might have more hope beating his former mentor next year.

ACTOR, DRAMA

“NYPD Blue’s” Dennis Franz could have copped this easily by submitting the segment in which he falls off the wagon at the Greek wedding. (Memo to Franz: Emmy voters are notorious pushovers for episodes on substance abuse. Kirstie Alley finally nabbed The Big One for “Cheers” when she battled the bottle in her 1991 entry.) But now it’s a real shootout. Franz’s entry: He busts up his son’s engagement to a bimbo. Caruso’s segment: He chokes up when Franz gets shot in the pilot.

On Aug. 15, the day after the judging panels disbanded and eight days before he quit the show, Caruso announced he plans to skip the Emmys. It’s just as well. He’ll choke here in a close contest, giving Franz the gold.

ACTRESS, DRAMA

Last year’s winner, Kathy Baker (“Picket Fences”), will probably win for roaring at the world when her son gets shot at school. If there’s an upset, it’ll be by Sela Ward (“Sisters”) for roaring when her daughter gets raped and assaulted.

Either way, it’ll be the 14th loss for the queen of prime time, Angela Lansbury (“Murder, She Wrote”), who will sadly reign with the queen of daytime, Susan Lucci (“All My Children”), as the biggest losers in Emmy history. It’s now a soap opera in which Angela could be forgiven for plotting the perfect murder.

COMEDY SERIES

Remember when “Seinfeld” beat “Cheers” last year, thereby souring the latter’s chances of topping “The Mary Tyler Moore Show’s” record for most Emmys ever? (Final score: “MTM”: 29, “Cheers”: 28) This year, for “Cheers” spinoff “Fraiser,” revenge will be sweet.

“Seinfeld’s” submissions: TV’s most lovable loser, George, saves a whale and wins a woman’s heart; George tries to reverse his usual pathetic luck by doing the opposite of everything.

“Fraiser’s” entries: the pilot show and Fraiser’s wacky bout with the flu.

Admittedly, it’s close, but there’s a good early omen: “Frasier,” in an equally tight vote, was just picked best comedy show by the TV Critics Assn.

ACTOR, COMEDY

“Fraiser’s” Kelsey Grammer has every reason to be starry-eyed. When his cantankerous father, the plucky Eddie, the psychic housekeeper and the world’s rattiest Lounge Boy move in with him in the pilot, this four-time Emmy loser gave the kind of apoplectic performance that will finally thrust him into the winner’s circle.

ACTRESS, COMEDY

Submitted by Roseanne (last year’s champ): After spanking son B.J. during a tirade, she repents by recalling the physical abuse she suffered as a girl. Her tears seem terribly real.

Entered by three-time victor Candice Bergen “Murphy Brown”: She beds down foe Scott Bakula and reveals a tough cookie’s tender heart. Very close, but we know why Roseanne smirks like that. This year, Roseanne has the upper hand.

TV MOVIE

Everything’s coming up Emmys this year for “Gypsy,” the musical that one prominent theater guru has called the greatest in Broadway history.

MINISERIES

A tossup. “Prime Suspect 3” (last year’s Part 2 won) vs. Stephen King’s “The Stand” vs. PBS’ “Tales of the City.” In a perfect world, it would be heads up for “Tales,” but, come the apocalypse, expect King to still be standing.

ACTOR, TV MOVIE/MINISERIES

Hume Cronyn (“To Dance with the White Dog”) vs. Michael Caine (“Stalin”) vs. Matthew Modine (“And the Band Played On”). Eenie, meenie, minie ... Cronyn takes his third Emmy in a squeaker.

ACTRESS, TV MOVIE/MINISERIES

Midler’s “Gypsy” is such a sure Bette that the Divine One will open the Emmycast with a showstopper.

“The 46th Annual Prime Time Emmy Awards” airs Sunday at 8 p.m. on ABC.