THE NFL / BILL PLASCHKE : Potholes and Pot Bellies on Road to the Playoffs

Ten ways you can tell that there is only one month left in the NFL’s regular season.

1. Barry Foster is suddenly hurt.

2. Troy Aikman suddenly isn’t.

3. Dennis Green says, “The areas that we still have to improve on, we still have to work on.”

4. Bill Parcells is the approximate size of a mobile home.

5. Buddy Ryan’s current team plays his former team, but Buddy has screwed both of them up so badly, nobody cares.

6. Each NFC Central team has 146 playoff possibilities.

7. Referees not only announce calls, they explain them.

8. Raider fans prepare for the playoffs by viewing videotape of prison riots.

9. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers begin a search for the worst football-playing college senior in America.

10. You decide that the person in your house responsible for taking out the garbage should be determined by a fifth tiebreaker.

With one month left in what has become a delightfully unnerving season, 18 of the 28 teams still have a reasonable chance of playing in January.

“We’re talking about a lot of teams with decent records and decent chances,” said Green, coach of one of them, the Minnesota Vikings. “Before, you might say 8-8 would not make it, but not this year. With free agency and the salary cap, it’s a different league.

“This should be a wild and woolly road.”

Hence, this map, with teams ranked by potential:

NFC

1. San Francisco 49ers (10-2).

Probable destination: First-round bye, home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Dangerous curves: They play at struggling San Diego on Dec. 11, and in the Monday night finale in Minnesota. Tough games, but this has proved to be a resilient team.

“Every single man in our locker room is on a mission,” said Carmen Policy, 49er president. “And I may be naive, but I don’t think it’s about money.”

2. Dallas Cowboys (10-2).

Probable destination: First-round bye.

Dangerous curves: If they win this weekend in Philadelphia, the rest of their season will be spent checking the scoreboard to see if the 49ers lose. Which won’t happen.

“We expect to see the 49ers again,” defensive end Jim Jeffcoat said of the team that beat the Cowboys last month, 21-14. “And we expect to be ready.”

3. Minnesota Vikings (8-5).

Probable destination: NFC Central championship, first-round game against worst wild-card team.

Dangerous curves: No other contender has a tougher finishing schedule, with games at Buffalo and Detroit before the finale against the 49ers.

But no other contender has a future Hall of Fame quarterback like Warren Moon, desperate to reach his first Super Bowl and showing his younger teammates how.

4. Green Bay Packers (6-6).

Probable destination: Top wild-card qualifier, host to a first-round game.

Dangerous curves: A soft closing schedule will shake them from their doldrums. Beginning at Detroit on Sunday, they could win their last four, against the Lions, Chicago Bears, Atlanta Falcons and Buccaneers.

Whether all of this will stop frustrated Mike Holmgren from eventually burning quarterback Brett Favre with cigarette butts, nobody knows.

5. Chicago Bears (8-5).

Probable destination: Second wild-card qualifier, will play first-round game at Green Bay.

Dangerous curves: After reeling for 10 days over Thursday night’s overtime loss to the Vikings, their midseason magic will officially disappear with a loss in Green Bay next week.

Erik Kramer will replace Steve Walsh at quarterback and they will win their final two home games, against the Rams and New England Patriots, but home-field chances will be blown.

6. Philadelphia Eagles (7-5).

Probable destination: Third wild-card qualifier, will play first-round game at Dallas.

Dangerous curves: Every curve is dangerous when your players have stopped paying attention and your coaches have started updating their resumes. Probable losses this week and next, to Dallas and Pittsburgh, should leave them with impossible playoff road.

7. Detroit Lions (6-6).

Probable destination: Home for the holidays.

Dangerous curves: Even if they have won 61% of games after Thanksgiving under Coach Wayne Fontes, have they ever finished a season with four games against teams with at least .500 records? And played the finale in Miami?

8. Atlanta Falcons (6-6).

Probable destination: Looney bin, unless they do something with that Rison fellow.

Dangerous curves: With home games remaining against Arizona and New Orleans, they might have a chance if they could win Sunday in San Francisco. Yeah, as if Deion Sanders is going to let them.

AFC

1. Miami Dolphins (8-4).

Probable destination: First-round bye, home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Dangerous curves: For those who do not think these guys have enough defense or running ability to become the first team to play a Super Bowl game on its home field, we have two words: Dan Marino. And one other word: MVP.

Of their final four games, three are at home, and the other is at Indianapolis. Yes, they have the Kansas City Chiefs next week on Monday night. But Joe Montana probably still will be sidelined because of a foot injury.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3).

Probable destination: First-round bye.

Dangerous curves: This defense is big and fast enough to run through most roadblocks. By the time the Steelers visit San Diego on Christmas Eve, they already will have clinched a first-round bye with victories over the Cincinnati Bengals, Eagles and Cleveland Browns.

3. San Diego Chargers (9-3).

Probable destination: AFC West championship, host to the worst wild-card team.

Dangerous curves: Everywhere. If they defeat the Raiders on Monday night, they must beat the 49ers six days later. Then a week after that, their creaking offense must win in New York against the Jets. Then they will be fortunate to score one touchdown in the finale against Steelers.

This doesn’t mean Junior Seau won’t be the league’s defensive player of the year. It just means that he can’t carry Stan Humphries.

4. Cleveland Browns (9-3).

Probable destination: Top wild-card qualifier, host in a first-round game.

Dangerous curves: It was fun while it lasted. But that Lake Erie lovefest will end after they lose consecutive games in Dallas and Pittsburgh. At least Vinny Testaverde will finally make the playoffs. For at least a couple of hours.

5. New York Jets (6-6).

Probable destination: Second wild-card qualifier, will play first-round game in Cleveland.

Dangerous curves: They could run the table, with road games at New England and Houston, and home games against the Lions and Chargers. Pete Carroll, the rookie who will earn a few coach-of-the-year votes, has built the type of defense that loves December weather.

If only they could count on Boomer Esiason’s arm working past November.

6. Denver Broncos (6-6).

Probable destination: Third wild-card qualifier, will play first-round game in San Diego.

Dangerous curves: Believe it. John Elway has that look. Even his pitiful defense can’t stop him.

After defeating the Montana-less Chiefs on Sunday, they will win two of their final three games and sneak into the playoffs through the doggie door.

Those three games include visits to San Francisco and the Raiders. But one of those teams is in disarray. Gee, wonder which one.

7. Kansas City Chiefs (7-5).

Probable destination: We hear the lights at Country Club Plaza are pretty this time of year.

Dangerous curves: Without their driver, these guys will have trouble negotiating even the straightaways.

8. Raiders (6-6).

Probable destination: Anaheim Stadium next season.

Dangerous curves: They have four winnable games. If only they did not have a team that had spent the last three months walking into doors.

9. Buffalo Bills (6-6).

Probable destination: Anywhere. Just as long as they’re finally out of our sight.

Dangerous curves: Do you really want to know the details? Just be thankful like the rest of us, OK?

10. New England Patriots (6-6).

Probable destination: AFC East championship. Next season.

Dangerous curves: The ones around the middle of Parcells’ sweater.

LAST ACT

The point is not whether Montana already has decided to retire after this season, as some reports have said and Montana has denied.

The point is that he should retire.

It’s not just us saying it. Several respected scouts are also of that opinion.

Despite good numbers early in the season, Montana is painfully showing his age. His foot injury should only hasten the inevitable.

“Watching Montana on film, he’s doing things he never used to do,” one scout said. “He’s missing receivers, he’s making poor decisions, he’s late on passes. He used to never be late, and now he’s a half-hour late.”

Said another: “He has been one of the greats. But what’s happening this year has been sad.”

QUICK HITTERS

* SOME LIKE IT HOT: How does Chicago Bear special teams star Maurice Douglass keep his cool during Sunday’s madness? He thinks back to his days as a male stripper. One day, to be exact.

“I went to this lady, and she had a $100 bill out,” Douglass said. “When I bent over to have her put it in my G-string, she pulled the whole thing off. I was trying not to be embarrassed and lose my composure, but I wanted to grab it right back from her. The (bouncers) got my pants back.”

Of stripping, Douglass said, “If you can do that, there’s no end to what you can do as far as being in the public eye.”

* CAN’T GET NO SATISFACTION: Despite having the luxury of a domed stadium, the Detroit Lions spent this week practicing outside in the cold.

The Silverdome had been leased by Mick Jagger and the Rolling Stones in preparation for their concert this weekend.

You might think the Lions would have been furious at having to prepare for an important home game against the Green Bay Packers on an unfamiliar surface, in temperatures that occasionally dropped below freezing.

But no. Not when your quarterback is a 36-year-old Stones fans.

“For the Rolling Stones, we’ll do that, if they let us backstage,” Dave Krieg said.

* ADD KRIEG: Can anybody else not believe that he has eight touchdown passes without an interception since replacing Scott Mitchell on Nov. 6? His quarterback rating during that time is 124.1.

Krieg, one of the streakiest quarterbacks in football history, is still a bad game waiting to happen. Expect the angry Packer defense to make it happen on Sunday.

* KNUCKLEHEAD OF THE WEEK: Last week against the Atlanta Falcons, Philadelphia Eagle quarterback Randall Cunningham was given the option of accepting a penalty that would give his team third and 10, or declining it and facing fourth and one.

He declined it.

His coach, Rich Kotite, promptly called time and ordered a punt.

“I’ve played football for 20 years,” Cunningham said. “I know what I’m doing.”

* ADD CUNNINGHAM: Expect the enigmatic quarterback to be traded this spring. Judging from his play during the Eagles’ current three-game losing streak, during which he has thrown for no touchdowns and three interceptions, it appears he has lost interest.

And yes, expect his old coach, Buddy Ryan, to make a bid for him in Arizona.

Also scheduled to be shipped out by new owner Jeffrey Lurie are Kotite, team President Harry Gamble and just about anybody else around there who doesn’t look as if he would fit into a new, aggressive, Dallas Cowboy-type operation.

* ADD LURIE: Whoever coaches for Lurie--and he will make a hard run for Jimmy Johnson--will have to deal with the owner’s hands-on style.

Last month, Lurie took a commercial flight to Phoenix for the Eagles’ game against the Cardinals. Because of strong head winds, the plane had to refuel in Kansas City.

Lurie had been reading the paper on the plane and noticed in the transactions section on the results page that the Cardinals had waived guard Rich Branham. Lurie got off the plane, called the office and suggested the Eagles might want to claim him.

* PICKY, PICKY: Linebacker Wilber Marshall was recently stripped of his job as the Cardinals’ union representative. The reason?

He had not paid his union dues in two years.