Crime Figures Offer Hope

The latest FBI crime statistics for the San Fernando Valley and for Los Angeles as a whole indicate a drop in crime during the first half of 1994. As usual, however, these statistics merely compare the current year with the previous one, which limits their historical significance.

Another caveat that must be noted is that the Jan. 17. Northridge earthquake caused a major disruption in the pattern. Crime almost seemed to take a holiday in the months immediately after the temblor, so at minimum these 1994 statistics need an asterisk.

Still, if one goes back to 1988 to study a longer trend, there are encouraging drops to be seen in the rates of two forms of serious crime in the Valley.

Take the number of homicides reported to the Los Angeles Police Department’s Valley divisions during the first nine months of 1994. They show a rate of 6.3 per month--30% lower than the nine murders per month reported in 1988.

Any rape is one too many, and there have been 34.7 of them per month in the Valley so far this year. But that compares to 42 per month last year, and 36 per month six years ago.

One bit of bad news: The rates of robberies and aggravated assaults in the Valley in 1994 are still substantially above 1988 levels.

As if we need reminding, these figures prove that our streets aren’t safe yet. Citizens are still badly frightened about crime. We know that the city is having some difficulty in meeting its goal of hiring more police officers, and that morale on the force is low. But the homicide and rape figures do give some hope that the battle can be won.