ELECTIONS : Candidates Already Jostling for Spots in 1996 Races : An earlier primary and the opening up of offices by term limits are among reasons for the early interest.

A few candidates haven’t even closed up their 1994 headquarters, but the 1996 political campaigns already have started in the South Bay, fueled in part by an early primary.

Some candidates already have declared their candidacies, given speeches, even sought endorsements from political leaders, all in anticipation of a crowded slate of contenders in several South Bay races.

Lawmakers in Sacramento and Washington “haven’t even had time for the dust to settle,” said Tom Martin, an aide to state Sen. Robert G. Beverly (R-Long Beach), who will not be able to run again because of term limits. “But it’s never too early.”

One reason for the early jockeying is the decision by state lawmakers’ to move the primary forward from June to March, 1996, a step designed to give California more influence in the selection of the Democratic and Republican presidential nominees. State and local candidates must compete with White House contenders for a limited pool of campaign dollars, so analysts say they have to start soliciting donations early.

“Anybody who is a serious contender has to be out raising money by March,” said Republican consultant Tom Shortridge of Redondo Beach.

Rancho Palos Verdes Councilwoman Susan Brooks--who has not yet conceded the race she ran this year against Rep. Jane Harman (D-Rolling Hills)----already says she plans to run again for the congressional seat in 1996.

Brooks could have a few challengers for the Republican nomination. Rancho Palos Verdes psychiatrist Irwin Savodnik said that he will decide within a month whether he will run. Savodnik spent more than $50,000 of his own money in this year’s Republican primary but was forced to drop out because he had switched his party affiliation too late to qualify for the ballot.

“It’s going to be a very serious race next time,” Savodnik said. “We’re going to put a lot of money in the campaign and we’re going to raise a lot of money.”

Another potential contender for the seat is Los Angeles developer John Morris, who made an unsuccessful bid for state controller this year.

“Many people thought Jane Harman was invincible,” said Morris, one of the founders of Ross stores. “They saw how well Susan did and said ‘Gee, (Harman) can be knocked off.’ It should have been a Republican seat, and with a good candidate, it will be a Republican seat.”

While Brooks may have an easier time raising money because of her showing in November, Savodnik and Morris have greater personal wealth to help them in the race. Potential candidates say the bulk of the fund raising will have to be done in 1995, although it won’t be easy in an off-year, when potential donors aren’t focused on elections.

“Starting from scratch will be tough,” said John Perkins, who was Brooks’ campaign manager this year.

Another congressional incumbent, Rep. Walter R. Tucker III (D-Compton), also is considered vulnerable. The former minister faces charges that he accepted bribes while mayor of Compton. A guilty verdict could force a special election, even earlier than the March, 1996, primary.

In the race for the seat being vacated by Los Angeles County Supervisor Deane Dana, who is retiring, financing may be the key. According to political analysts, a candidate might have to start with a minimum of $250,000. One reason is the size of the district, which sprawls from Venice to Long Beach and extends inland to Diamond Bar.

“It’s twice the size of a state Senate seat,” said Torrance Councilman George Nakano, who is considering running for the post. He ran unsuccessfully this year against incumbent Ralph C. Dills in the Democratic primary in the 28th state Senate District.

“I’m looking at the size of the district, and what it would take to be successful,” Nakano said. “I’m looking at all sorts of things. I haven’t given up.”

Dana is backing his chief deputy, Don Knabe, as his successor, which could give Knabe an early edge in fund raising, political consultants say. Long Beach Councilman Doug Drummond also has declared, and former Rolling Hills Councilwoman Gordana Swanson said she is considering a bid.

Another large field is expected for Beverly’s state Senate seat, which will be open because of term limits. Brian Finander, a Democrat who nearly beat Beverly in 1992, has announced plans to run. Political observers also mention former Assemblywoman Betty Karnette and former Assemblyman Bob Epple, two Democrats who lost their races this year.

But the Republicans who beat them, Steven T. Kuykendall and Phil Hawkins, also have been mentioned as possible candidates for the state Senate.

“Who better to fight for that seat than an incumbent who already has a fund-raising ability?” said Republican consultant Shortridge.

Republican prospects also mentioned by political observers include former Long Beach Councilman Ray Grabinski, Long Beach businessman Frank Colonna, former Long Beach Councilwoman Jan C. Hall and former Bellflower Councilman Bob Stone.

“There will probably be at least a dozen candidates for this seat,” Martin said.

The reason is term limits, which, in addition to Beverly’s seat, have opened up two other South Bay posts. Neither Assemblyman Willard H. Murray Jr. in the 52nd District, which covers parts of Gardena, nor Assemblyman Curtis R. Tucker Jr., whose 51st District includes Inglewood, can run again.

“It’s a tremendous opportunity, particularly for those in local politics,” said Inglewood Councilman Garland Hardeman, who is interested in running for the 51st Assembly District seat.

Hardeman, however, said he has his immediate sights set on reelection to the council in April. If he then chooses to seek higher office, he could have familiar competition: Inglewood Mayor Edward Vincent also is interested in the Assembly seat.

According to political consultants, a possible candidate for Murray’s seat is his daughter, Melinda, a deputy district attorney in Torrance. Murray’s son Kevin was elected to a Culver City-area Assembly seat this year.

And while term limits create new opportunities, they could send outgoing officeholders looking for new jobs. Murray and Curtis Tucker are mentioned as possible candidates for Walter Tucker’s congressional seat, depending on the outcome of his trial. And even state Sen. Diane Watson (D-Los Angeles) and Assemblywoman Juanita M. McDonald (D-Carson), whose terms don’t expire until 1998, could run for the seat, according to political observers.

With term limits, “As soon as you are elected to office, you have to stop and say, ‘What do I do next?’ ” said Democratic political consultant Joe Cerrell. “. . . What you have is musical chairs at its worst.”

Incumbents who could face spirited challenges include Assemblywoman Debra Bowen (D-Marina del Rey), who represents a district in which voter registration is split almost evenly between both parties. Insurance claims adjuster Julian Sirull, Redondo Beach Mayor Brad Parton and Torrance Councilman Dan Walker are among the possible contenders, according to political analysts. All have run for the seat before. Their hopes were raised because Sirull, despite having little money, came within eight percentage points of Bowen this year.

“These are a caliber of candidates who before were hesitant to run,” said Shortridge, who worked for Sirull this year.

For all the talk in political circles, however, don’t expect candidates to start knocking on doors at the start of 1995. They’ll be working behind the scenes, looking for big donors and setting up staffs.

“The real serious candidates are looking at the races now,” said Martin of Beverly’s office. “But (voters) aren’t even focused on 1996. That makes it hard to gain support.”