THE NBA / MARK HEISLER : West Has Spurs, East Plenty of Horses

After some maneuvering over the seedings, a process known as the regular season, the NBA is, mercifully, set to start its playoffs with only one thing certain:

Some team has to win this thing . . . doesn’t it?

OK, nothing is certain. The Spurs are favored in the West. In the East, it’s the Magic, Bulls, Pacers or Knicks (or in other words, you’re on your own over there).

Here’s how it shapes up.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

* No. 1 San Antonio vs. No. 8 Denver--The Spurs didn’t merely close well; after a 6-7 start without Dennis Rodman, they were 56-13. Opponents sometimes put forwards on David Robinson, who likes to take centers outside and dash past them. Robinson will have to show he can take the forwards inside, which is not his favorite tactic. Guard Avery Johnson became a decent shooter but opponents will make him show he can do it when the heat’s on. The Nuggets finished 20-12 under Bernie Bickerstaff and their best player, LaPhonso Ellis, was so excited, he cut short his rehabilitation after knee surgery to rejoin the team. As the Lakers learned after getting Cedric Ceballos and Eddie Jones back, it’s tough to change on the fly.

* No. 2 Phoenix vs. No. 7 Portland--The doughnut-hole Suns have an explosive, balanced offensive team led by Charles Barkley, a cold-blooded veteran who is unstoppable when healthy and motivated. They’re still the best in the West at pulling games out in the end. The deep, physical Trail Blazers will try to climb all over the offensive boards but they’re still wobbly after the feud between Coach P.J. Carlesimo and Rod Strickland surfaced.

* No. 3 Utah vs. No. 6 Houston--Jazz teams traditionally max out in the regular season but this one is deeper and better balanced, with Jeff Hornacek’s three-point shooting relieving the pressure on Karl Malone. Only James Donaldson at center, though. The defending champion Rockets, who said they lived to prove their critics wrong, proved them right, instead. They went from a bad rebounding team with Otis Thorpe to a worse one with Clyde Drexler--and then lost power forward Carl Herrera.

* No. 4 Seattle vs. No. 5 Lakers--Seemingly primed for disaster after last spring’s fall, the SuperSonics held up. They used to be bad shooters but Detlef Schrempf led the NBA in three-point percentage. They had matchup problems with the Lakers but went to school on them. After four losses, Coach George Karl called off his press, which had allowed the Laker guards to take uncontested three-point shots, and the SuperSonics blew them out last week in the Forum. The Lakers picked a bad two weeks to go down the tubes but their problems were there all season, hidden by a potent offense and a deep bench. They were No. 27 in defensive rebounding, above only Minnesota. Their defense, which had been in and out, went out.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

* No. 1 Orlando vs. No. 8 Boston--The Magic started 35-8 but grew bored and finished 22-17, losing its last seven on the road. Inexperience may hurt this team again but if it hits in the first round, it’ll be a big surprise. The Celtics, 35-game winners, got in because the rules say each conference needs eight teams. In their last game against Orlando, Shaquille O’Neal missed nine of 11 free throws and Coach Chris Ford was asked if the Celtics would put him on the line in the playoffs. “Possibly,” deadpanned Ford.

* No. 2 Indiana vs. No. 7 Atlanta--The Pacers look like a team built for the playoffs, big (their 7-4, 6-11, 6-10 front line is the game’s tallest), deep (with 6-9 Antonio Davis coming off the bench), and tough on defense (No. 3 in the league). They lack firepower, though, and leading scorer Reggie Miller finished cold (34% from the field in an eight-game stretch in April). The Hawks are rebuilding and their strength is their perimeter players (Mookie Blaylock, Steve Smith, Stacey Augmon), nothing under the hoop.

* No. 3 New York vs. No. 6 Cleveland--The Knicks look as though they’re closer to mutiny than a title run but they’re the roughest, best-defending, most experienced team around. Patrick Ewing sat out the last two games because of a hamstring injury and isn’t expected to practice for another day or two. Without him at full strength, forget them. The Cavaliers fielded a rock-ribbed team of unknowns like Tyrone Hill and Bobby Phills in the absence of better-known Brad Daugherty, Gerald Wilkins and Terrell Brandon. They won’t be easy for anyone but the inevitable can be deferred for only so long.

* No. 4 Charlotte vs. No. 5 Chicago--What else could go wrong for the Hornets? Leading the Central Division until March 13, they finished 10-9, fell to second place and must open against the Bulls in Charlotte, where Michael Jordan is still the king. Also, Scott Burrell is out and Muggsy Bogues has a bothersome hamstring. The Bulls finished 12-2 and even overcame their puny rebounding. After being beaten by an average of 10 rebounds in Jordan’s first six games, they found a new guy to help out on the boards--Jordan, who averaged eight the last three weeks.