COMMENTARY : Our Gatsby Looms as a Top Contender to Win the Preakness

In the last 15 years, only three Kentucky Derby winners have come to Pimlico and won the Preakness, too. Unless there is a dominant horse in the 3-year-old crop -- an Alysheba, a Sunday Silence -- the outcome of the classic races may be determined by pace, trips, tactics and sheer luck, and rarely will a horse get all the breaks twice in a row.

So after 24-to-1 Thunder Gulch won at Churchill Downs with the benefit of a well-judged ride by Gary Stevens, virtually every handicapper in America examined the evidence of the Derby to find the horse who would beat him at Pimlico. Second-place Tejano Run, third-place Timber Country and 12th-place Talkin Man will all get strong support. Indeed, many experts expect Timber Country to be favored in the Preakness.

I, too, have scrutinized these horses, looking for one who can turn the tables on Thunder Gulch. And the more I look, the less I like any of them.

Many people may have been impressed by the rallies of Tejano Run and Timber Country in the Derby, but the race developed in a way that benefited stretch-runners. The speedsters who contested the early lead all collapsed; the horses who were running 1-2-3-4 after three-quarters of a mile wound up finishing 16-9-19-12. This allowed virtually everbody in the field to make up ground in the stretch. Even a little-regarded horse named Mecke came from far back to come within 3 1/4 lengths behind Thunder Gulch.

Tejano Run got a perfect, ground-saving ride from Jerry Bailey to finish second; he’ll never get an easier trip -- and still he couldn’t beat the winner. Timber Country came through traffic in the 19-horse field at Churchill Downs, but he was never stopped, never lost his momentum. This was his fourth straight defeat as a 3-year-old, and, although trainer Wayne Lukas keeps making excuses for him, the colt has not improved since his championship 2-year-old season. He has turned into a plodder. Why should he be the Preakness favorite? Throw the bum out.

Although Talkin Man was soundly beaten in the Derby, many bettors will give him another chance Saturday. He might not have been completely fit for the Derby, and he was compromised by chasing a fast pace at Churchill Downs -- a half mile in 45 4/5 seconds. If there hadn’t been much speed in the Preakness field, he might have been a formidable contender. But the pace in the Preakness is likely to be hotter than the Derby. Mystery Storm is a tenacious front-runner; Star Standard is fast, too, and trainer Nick Zito declared: “He’s going to be winging. I don’t care how much speed there is in the field.” Not only may a fast pace hurt him, but Talkin Man will be wearing front-leg bandages for the first time Saturday -- almost always a negative sign. At 3 to 1 or so, he’s hardly a bargain.

Thunder Gulch was the best horse at Churchill Downs. Running fifth in the early stages, he was the only horse near the lead who didn’t collapse. He took a commanding lead in mid-stretch, but when the stretch-runners started making their moves they couldn’t cut into his margin. His victory was no fluke despite his long odds. He had won two major stakes in his three previous starts as a 3-year-old; he was 24 to 1 only because Lukas seemed to disregard him while he was hyping stablemate Timber Country. Thunder Gulch ought to reassert his superiority over the horses he faced at Churchill Downs. He is the one to beat in the Preakness, though he is hardly a juicy betting proposition.

Six horses who weren’t in the Derby are entered in the Preakness, and one of them is a bona fide contender: Our Gatsby. The Midwestern colt finished second in the Derby Trial at Churchill three weeks ago -- no great accomplishment -- but the speed figure he earned suggests that he will not be overmatched against the big names of his generation. The strength of his performance was verified when the horse who beat him in the Trial, Peaks and Valleys, came back to win the $500,000 Illinois Derby last weekend -- also in fast time. The stretch-running Our Gatsby has the right style for this speed-filled Preakness, and has the services of America’s best jockey, Kent Desormeaux.

He is the only horse in the Preakness field whose odds may represent betting value. Because I consider it my civic duty to place a bet on the Preakness, I will play back-and-forth exactas of Thunder Gulch and Our Gatsby.