Analysis Cites Paralysis : Kernen Says Every Time This Season Northridge Was on the Verge of Success, the Matadors Froze

The doctor is in.

Bill Kernen admits he may be prone to over-analysis. With a degree in psychology, he is a thinking man’s baseball coach.

Giving Kernen a week to reflect on Cal State Northridge’s successes and failures is like sitting a kid in front of a white wall with a box of crayons. You can guess what happens next and bet the ranch that it’ll be colorful.

Northridge finished 28-29, below the break-even mark for the second consecutive year. If nothing else, baseball is chock-full of crazy statistics and the reasons for Northridge’s so-so performance are there in black and white.

The pitching was horrible. Northridge had two speeds, slow and stop, and stole only 32 bases. Opposition base stealers bolted from bag to bag with virtual impunity, swiping 75 in 97 attempts. The Matadors made 99 errors.

Beyond the black and white is the gray, and Kernen is convinced that gray matter played a part in his team’s mediocre season.

“I tend to look at things as a study in psychology,” Kernen said. “Sometimes people, sometimes teams, for whatever reason, are afraid to succeed. I think that applied to us.”

Ouch, that smarts. Kernen has plenty of ammo to back up the characterization, though.

* Northridge started the season 6-0, then lost five in a row.

* At midseason, the Matadors won seven of 10, including two of three at Texas A&M;, which advanced to postseason play. Then Northridge was swept in a three-game series by Cal State Sacramento, an average team.

* On May 2, Northridge had again won seven of 10 when Kernen received word from the NCAA that the team was under consideration for a postseason berth. A day later, in a moment that may underscore Kernen’s assertion more than anything else, Northridge lost to second-ranked Cal State Fullerton, 12-11. With the score tied, the bases loaded and one out in the ninth, Northridge couldn’t push across the winning run. The Matadors went 2-6 to end the season.

“When we were at the brink, the turning point, the backs-against-the-wall, now-or-never, put-up-or-shut-up points in the season, we played poorly,” Kernen said. “We did nothing.

“We were like turtles with our heads in our shells. It was, ‘Don’t bother me.’ ”

Sometimes the tortoise, sometimes the hare. Kernen’s characterization wouldn’t sting so much if Northridge hadn’t had so many superlative moments. The Matadors twice knocked off nationally ranked USC and were rarely out of a ballgame.

“If a team is good enough to do it off and on, it’s good enough to do it consistently,” Kernen said. “Why did it keep happening? I wish I knew.”

Apart from the cerebral stuff, Northridge had more than a few peccadilloes afield. Only one Matador pitcher finished with an earned-run average under 5.00. The staff ERA was 6.39, second-highest in school history. The team ERA has climbed in each of the past five seasons.

Yet the Northridge offense was the best since the school moved to NCAA Division I in 1991.

The Matadors hit 82 home runs--with four players reaching double figures--and scored 462 runs, both Division I highs for the program.

The team batting average was .316 and four players drove in 50 runs or more. The Matadors lost 14 games by two runs or one run. Heck, had the staff ERA been a run lower, Northridge might have won, what, another 10 games or so?

“Yeah, what if?” said senior pitcher Keven Kempton. “If that happens, we’re there. We’re in the hunt.”

Kempton, who had elbow surgery last spring and never regained his effectiveness, said pitchers must shoulder much of the blame.

Kempton, a starter, was 4-3 with an ERA of 9.34. The bullpen was a nullpen--five relievers had ERAs above 7.50.

With a few more arms--Northridge signed two pitchers to letters of intent last week--next season could produce another breakthrough. As many as five hungry regulars could return.

“I feel sorry for the guys who had great years offensively and didn’t get to postseason,” Kempton said. “They did their jobs, no question.”

Eye-popping final scores aside, the season was a marked improvement from the debacle of 1994, when Northridge finished 25-30 to end three years of postseason berths. Kernen last year benched several players, banned the team from the clubhouse and briefly took away their uniforms.

“I think we took a bigger step this year than people on the outside can perceive,” said senior third baseman Jason Shanahan, who was on Northridge playoff teams in his first two seasons. “The won-loss record may not reflect it, but I think we took a gigantic step in reversing things.”

The vibes were good. Kernen truly liked his players, calling them the “best kids I’ve had.” Players liked one another too, which may reinforce the coach’s year-ending dissertation.

Last fall, months before the first game, players were asked to fill out written evaluations of their teammates. They were asked to grade one another in several categories.

“Things like whether you’d want to go into battle with a guy or not,” Kernen said.

Kernen said the results were amazingly uniform. Almost every player was regarded by his teammates as a nice, conscientious guy . . . with questionable aggressiveness.

“I guess they knew something way back then,” Kernen said.

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Armed Farces

Cal State Northridge pitching and offensive production in five seasons of NCAA Division I competition:

Season Record HRs Runs ERA 1991* 44-18 72 433 3.12 1992* 38-16 71 408 3.27 1993* 36-20 65 427 5.16 1994 25-30 39 348 6.35 1995 28-29 81 462 6.39

* Advanced to postseason play