NEWS ANALYSIS : Since Inception, Measure R Appeared Destined to Fail : Defeat: Disdain for government’s gambling with funds coupled with aversion toward any levy proves lethal.

Measure R was sunk Tuesday by Orange County’s habitual antipathy to taxes and the electorate’s disdain for a county government that had gambled itself into bankruptcy.

“People understood that the government has failed them. Their instinct already is that government should change,” said Mark Thompson, chief strategist and spokesman for Citizens Against the Tax. “People are saying, ‘We’re mad as hell and we are not going to take it anymore.’ ”

People believed “this sales tax would have given the county the latitude to just keep business as usual,” he said.

Almost as important, the bankruptcy’s effects have been minimal for most residents.

Nearly seven months into the worst government bankruptcy ever, voters have not seen one full-time teacher laid off, or one county supervisor leave office. While Sheriff Brad Gates and County Chief Executive Officer William J. Popejoy warned of coming calamity nearly daily in the weeks leading up to the election, most residents have been virtually unaffected by the bankruptcy or the $1.7-billion loss to the county investment pool.

“The average taxpayer hasn’t felt the pain nearly as much as the average elected official or bureaucrat who runs government,” said Gary Hunt, executive vice president of the Irvine Co., a leading supporter of Measure R. “In addition, the pool settlement and other successes in dealing with the bankruptcy have made it look like the county was dealing with the problem.

“Our success has been our own worst enemy,” he said.

When Measure M, the half-cent transportation sales tax, was approved in 1990, voters could more easily understand what they would be paying for: Freeways were jammed at all hours and seemed to be getting worse. And even Measure M lost the first time it was launched in November, 1989.

Partisans on both sides of the issue said Measure R was swamped partly by the election’s timing.

“Any special election is problematic for a tax issue,” said Stu Mollrich, who coordinated the Yes campaign for Citizens for Fiscal Responsibility. “No one said there is time to wait for a general election. That would have been our first choice.”

Others also felt a tax issue would have fared better late this year or early next year, after the county had explored alternatives that are being advanced by Measure R opponents.

“What the public was saying is that there was not a convincing argument made that all of the alternatives were looked at and implemented before we turned to a last resort--the tax--instead of using it as a first resort,” said Dan Wooldridge, who ran the Public Safety for Yes on R campaign.

“The skepticism out there is rampant,” said Supervisor Roger R. Stanton, who opposed the tax. “People do not believe we explored enough of the alternatives before we went to the tax button.”

From the outset, Measure R suffered in public opinion polls. With less than three months from conception to election, the half-cent sales tax increase proposal was fighting long odds in a county that has never been hospitable to taxes.

In early April, it was 21 points down. In early June, it was five points down, although among likely voters, it still trailed 50% to 37% with 13% undecided. It was clear that a majority of those determined to go to the polls wanted to send an anti-tax, anti-government message.

“The No campaign effectively sowed doubt,” said Larry Thomas, a longtime operative in statewide and national Republican politics, who now works for the Irvine Co. Tax opponents recruited many local elected officials, including the legislative delegation, which raised questions for “the public while it was trying to sort out a complex thing.”

The Yes side was frustrated by its inability to reach the average voter. “People need to see an impact in their daily lives,” said Mollrich, adding that he had suggested in jest that county officials shut off traffic lights “for three hours a day during rush hour” so people could see the potential effect of insolvency.

During the truncated campaign, little happened to persuade voters to approve the tax, while much was occurring to indicate that perhaps the county’s financial situation wasn’t so dire after all.

* Schools, cities and special agencies were able to recoup as much as 90% of the money they had invested in the county pool when it collapsed, staving off financial ruin. The county and its creditors have obtained a court-approved agreement on a plan to extend $1 billion in short-term debt by one year in exchange for extra interest later on.

* Elected officials, including U.S. Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-Huntington Beach), insisted that the Orange County Transportation Authority divert Measure M money into county coffers. Transportation officials have been fighting such a prospect.

* Popejoy acknowledged that the county is pushing for a $1.2-billion settlement with Merrill Lynch & Co., which it blames for the county’s investment losses. Merrill Lynch, which rejected the offer, heatedly denied that it is responsible for the financial crisis.

* Judges in Orange County Superior Court and U.S. Bankruptcy Court ruled that the county could sell $260 million in fully insured municipal bonds to partially repay cities, schools and other investors.

Opponents of the tax were successful with their strategy, playing off voter discontent and anti-tax ideology and loudly insisting there were plenty of other options, including the sale or lease of county properties such as John Wayne Airport, county landfills and other assets.

Alan Remington of Costa Mesa, who worked on the No campaign, epitomized the angry voter. Listening to the anti-tax tide wash in at the No on R tailgate party in Santa Ana, he said: “It’s not big enough for me. I wanted it to be 90% to 10%. The supervisors haven’t learned a thing from this bankruptcy. I hope this sends some kind of message.”

Voter anger was hardly mollified when former Treasurer-Tax Collector Robert L. Citron pleaded guilty in late April to six felony charges, and his chief assistant, Matthew Raabe, was arrested in May on six counts of securities fraud and misappropriation of public funds. Board of Supervisors Chairman Gaddi H. Vasquez announced in mid-June he would not seek reelection, though he denied the financial crisis had anything to do with his decision.

Raising about $1.5 million to flood the county with 2.5 million pieces of mail, backers of the sales tax urged a Yes vote by appealing to the need to help school districts and spare law enforcement more cuts. In contrast, the No side spent about $100,000 and mailed several hundred thousand letters.

Times staff writers Mark Landsbaum, Lee Romney, Len Hall and Michael G. Wagner contributed to this report.