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Big Southland Population Jump Expected : Survey: Spurred by economic revival, gain of 2.3 million people by 2005 will be largest of any U.S. metropolitan area.

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TIMES STAFF WRITER

Bolstered by an anticipated economic revival, the Los Angeles area will grow by 2.3 million residents over the next decade, the largest numerical gain of any metropolitan area in the nation, according to the study scheduled to be released today by the Palo Alto-based Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy.

The population of the area--which includes Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino and Ventura counties--will grow 14.6% to about 18.3 million by 2005, according to the center. The region’s rate of growth will exceed that of the nation--about 10%--but will fall slightly below the 16.9% increase projected for California.

In the Los Angeles area, the center’s estimated regional population growth rate will exceed the pace of the past five years, when the area was hit by severe economic slump. The study’s authors said the newcomers will be drawn to the area by the job growth in such industries as high-technology manufacturing, foreign trade, tourism and entertainment.

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“Population growth will accelerate between 1995 and 2005 in all California regions driven by a renewal of job growth in the state,” said Stephen Levy, director of economic research center.

The forecast is much more bullish than other recent studies when estimating population growth. While the center estimates that California will have a population of 38.2 million within a decade, the UCLA Business Forecasting Project expects the state’s population to grow more slowly, reaching 36.2 million by the end of 2004.

The report had good news for the Los Angeles area’s long-suffering residential real estate market, which will benefit from the anticipated addition of between 750,000 and a million new households by 2005.

Among the study’s other major findings and projections for the region:

* The size of the school-age population--ages 5 to 17--will rise by a million in the next 10 years.

* Minorities will account for 62% of the population in 2005, up from 55% this year.

* The share of households with incomes above $75,000 will grow from 22.5% this year to nearly 32% by 2005.

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