The Early Oscar Line: No Shoo-Ins : Awards: Without a front-runner like ‘Forrest Gump,’ some observers see a potential for also-rans to win big while others say this year’s race seems boring.

Place your bets on the dark horse. That seems to be the drift of this year’s early Oscar buzz.

The consensus among industry wags and studio executives is that Oscar will probably come up with some big surprises at the ceremony, scheduled for March 25 at the Dorothy Chandler Pavilion. And the reason is pretty simple: No one film is expected to sweep several categories as “Forrest Gump” did last year and “Schindler’s List” did the year before.

“It is the year of slim pickin’s, and that’s not the actor,” quipped one 20th Century Fox executive. “You could probably sum up this year as dull, dull and dull.”

Big-studio offerings are few by comparison, and there’s no celebrated independent feature earning a groundswell of support akin to “Pulp Fiction” last year.

“Then again, you could look at it another way,” added Gerry Rich, president of MGM’s marketing. “This year is ripe for surprises. It leaves everyone guessing. It opens the chance for discovery films. And that should make for a much more interesting election and certainly a more interesting Academy Awards broadcast.”

For best picture, most of those interviewed mentioned Ron Howard’s “Apollo 13”--another vehicle for Tom Hanks, winner of the last two best actor awards.

Others on the short list are Rob Reiner’s “The American President,” Clint Eastwood’s “The Bridges of Madison County” and late arrivals “Othello,” “Richard III” and “Sense and Sensibility.” Still largely unscreened, however, are the big holiday releases “Nixon,” directed by Oliver Stone for Disney, and “Sabrina,” Sydney Pollack’s remake of the 1954 Billy Wilder classic.

New York and Los Angeles film critics cast their nets wider with raves for the downbeat love story “Leaving Las Vegas,” the Hughes brothers’ message movie “Dead Presidents,” Mel Gibson’s kilt epic “Braveheart,” New Line’s gory “Seven” and “To Die For”--pegged as the unveiling of Nicole Kidman’s talent.

Martin Scorsese’s “Casino,” released by Universal, is considered a dicey gamble. “The academy was so turned off by Scorsese’s indulgence in violence with this picture that it could hurt the film’s chances, not to mention those who gave some great performances,” said an executive at a rival studio. “This could finally be the year one of Disney’s kid movies [“Toy Story”] grabs the brass ring. Or it could just end up being the year of the pig.”

The pig is the summer sleeper “Babe,” released by Universal Pictures. A beautifully woven adaptation and Australian import, “Babe” is one of two foreign pictures that has engendered a soft spot with some academy voters. The other is the Italian film “The Postman (Il Postino),” released by Miramax.

Italy declined to submit “The Postman,” which has English subtitles, as a best foreign film candidate because the director, Michael Radford, is English.

“We believe this film will get a lot of support,” said Miramax chief Harvey Weinstein. The film has a tragic denouement. Massimo Troisi, who plays the postman, died on the last day of filming after he had postponed an operation in order to complete the picture. Competitors say Troisi is sure to draw some sympathy votes.

Weinstein, who is never shy about trumpeting Miramax’s strongest contenders, is banking on two upcoming releases to engender academy support: “Cry the Beloved Country,” about a South African farmer whose son is murdered (opening Dec. 15 in L.A. and New York); and “Restoration,” a post-English civil war period film with a showcase ensemble cast that opens a week later.

“It’s the first two weeks of December where you will really start to see movement. . . . You will really start to see how the Oscar [nominations] are going to shape up,” Weinstein said. “I’m willing to come out and say there are no front-runners now. There just aren’t. So hopefully the Oscars will be exciting for a change.”

Many expect to see the most hotly contested best actress race in years, with strong performances from many of Hollywood’s top female talents.

Consider: Sharon Stone in “Casino,” Meryl Streep in “Bridges,” Nicole Kidman in “To Die For,” Michelle Pfeiffer in “Dangerous Minds,” Elisabeth Shue in “Leaving Las Vegas,” Emma Thompson in both “Carrington” and “Sense and Sensibility” (in which she also adapted the screenplay), Annette Bening for “The American President,” Angela Bassett in “Waiting to Exhale,” Susan Sarandon in “Dead Man Walking,” Vanessa Redgrave in “A Month by the Lake,” Jennifer Jason Leigh in “Georgia” and Kathy Bates in “Delores Claiborne.”

Best actor--a category in which the British are usually well-represented--has Brits Anthony Hopkins in “Nixon,” Ian McKellen in “Richard III” and Jonathan Pryce (who won the Cannes best actor prize) in “Carrington” as anticipated contenders. But America’s Laurence Fishburne could beat them at their own game as the eponymous “Othello.”

Frequently mentioned were John Travolta for “Get Shorty,” a favorite of many last year for “Pulp,” Eastwood for “Bridges” (some expect him to get a best director nomination), Hanks for “Apollo” and Michael Douglas in “American President.”

Also being mentioned are Morgan Freeman’s performance in “Seven,” Nicolas Cage’s showing as the ultimate alcoholic in “Leaving Las Vegas,” Jeff Bridges as the legendary “Wild Bill” and Sean Penn as a convicted killer in the upcoming “Dead Man Walking.”

Robert DeNiro’s performance in “Casino,” Jack Nicholson in “The Crossing Guard,” Richard Harris and James Earl Jones in “Cry, the Beloved Country,” Richard Dreyfuss in “Mr. Holland’s Opus” and Gene Hackman and Denzel Washington in “Crimson Tide” could also make the cut.

In the supporting categories--territories usually shaped by critics’ choices--the favorite names so far are Kevin Spacey in “The Usual Suspects” and “Seven,” Don Cheadle in “Devil in a Blue Dress,” Joaquin Phoenix in “To Die For,” Tim Roth in “Rob Roy” and Delroy Lindo in “Clockers.”

For supporting actress, Mira Sorvino in Woody Allen’s “Mighty Aphrodite” appears to be a top choice followed by Stockard Channing in “Smoke” and Kathleen Quinlan in “Apollo 13.”

“This month [December] you’re going to see so many movies out there cannibalizing each other, just so everybody can get their films to qualify for the Oscar [nominations] deadline,” Weinstein said. “The trick is how to get your film to stand out and how you make sure those performances rise above the pack. Boy, will this be fun to watch.”