Picking the Winners and the Losers From the Choosers

Despite what the person sitting under Mel Kiper Jr.’s hair will tell you, drafts cannot be properly evaluated in a day. Most football personnel men would ask for three years.

OK, we’ll give them that. What follows is a list of who is hot, who is not, and who is outright desperate, based on the previous three drafts.

WHO’S HOT

1. PITTSBURGH STEELERS--They will remain a contender no matter how many of their quarterbacks leave town, and no matter how long their top running back could be in jail for alleged drug possession, because they have achieved their success the old-fashioned way.

They have drafted it.

Under the direction of personnel whiz Tom Donahoe, the Steelers have had 13 solid picks in the last three years. That’s more than any two NFL teams combined.

How about Deon Figures, Chad Brown, Andre Hastings and Willie Williams--all in 1993, followed by a 1994 selection meeting that included Charles Johnson, Brentson Buckner, troubled running back Bam Morris, and next season’s starters, linebacker Jason Gildon and quarterback Jim Miller?

Imagine that, a starting quarterback in the NFL taken in the sixth round. No stranger, perhaps, than a starting wide receiver taken as a quarterback in the second round. Yes, these are also the guys who took a chance on Kordell Stewart.

2. GREEN BAY PACKERS--Their rise to the top of the NFC this year was no surprise to draft watchers, who have seen former Raider executive Ron Wolf pluck starters out of the fifth (running back Dorsey Levens), sixth (cornerback Doug Evans), and even seventh rounds (guard Adam Timmerman).

Not to mention Wolf’s first-round picks--linebacker Wayne Simmons, guard Aaron Taylor and cornerback Craig Newsome--have been solid locks.

The Packers have even drafted wins for other teams, stealing quarterback Mark Brunell in the fifth round before trading him to Jacksonville.

3. BUFFALO BILLS--Nobody in football is better at finding the overlooked player than Bill General Manager John Butler, who has come up with such gems as cornerback Marlon Kerner in the third round, receiver Russell Copeland in the fourth and running back Darick Holmes in the seventh.

When you include consecutive first-round picks of cornerback Thomas Smith, safety Jeff Burris and guard Rueben Brown, there is little wonder the Bills will not go away.

4. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS--Dana Stubblefield, Bryant Young, William Floyd and J.J. Stokes. And those are only their first-rounders.

Throw in a sixth-round pick for Lee Woodall and an eighth-round flier on Elvis Grbac, and there is a reason this franchise remains a league cornerstone.

5. BALTIMORE RAVENS--Owner Art Modell might be a loon, but he knows talent. He has found six major contributors in three years, including center Steve Everitt in 1993 and cornerback Antonio Langham and receiver Derrick Alexander in 1994. Last year’s first-round pick, linebacker Craig Powell, struggled because of injuries, but that draft was saved by the third-round choice of quarterback Eric Zeier.

When Modell talks about bucking public opinion to select running back Lawrence Phillips, his new town better listen.

6. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS--Bill Parcells might not understand free agency, but few are better at making an annual floor-stomping draft pick.

It was quarterback Drew Bledsoe, wisely taken over Rick Mirer, in 1993.

It was linebacker Willie McGinest, a first-rounder who has finally proved Parcells right, in 1994.

And it was Curtis Martin--how did he last three rounds?--in 1995.

7. MINNESOTA VIKINGS--Coach Dennis Green, like another former 49er assistant named Mike Holmgren, knows players.

Green’s Vikings have not fallen hopelessly behind Holmgren’s Packers because of such players as Robert Smith, Todd Steussie, Korey Stringer, Andrew Jordan and Qadry Ismail on offense.

And Dewayne Washington, Derrick Alexander, Orlando Thomas and Corey Fuller on defense. Yes, all drafted in the last three years. Now, if any of them can learn how to win a big game.

8. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS--In the last three years, General Manager Bobby Beathard has found one of the league’s best returners (Andre Coleman) in the third round, and a starting linebacker (Lewis Bush) and starting running back (Aaron Hayden) in the fourth.

Not to mention he took since-departed running back Natrone Means in the second round in 1993, just in time for Means to lead them to a Super Bowl.

Watch this team tonight and early Sunday. Nobody is better, later.

9. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS--Boss Bill Tobin not only won the nationally televised verbal battle with Kiper, but he has won each of the last three draft wars, with top selections such as receiver Sean Dawkins, running back Marshall Faulk and defensive end Elliss Johnson.

Put it another way: They won a playoff game this season thanks to a third-round running back named Zack Crockett.

10. MIAMI DOLPHINS--Who needs Jimmy Johnson? Efficient starters O.J. McDuffie, Terry Kirby, Tim Bowens and Tim Ruddy have all come from the last three drafts. Scouts say tackle Billy Milner, last year’s first-rounder, should soon join them.

11. HOUSTON OILERS--So they flunked on first-rounder Henry Ford in 1994. They were solid with tackle Brad Hopkins in 1993 and potentially spectacular with quarterback Steve McNair in 1995. Besides, anybody who can find standout safety Blaine Bishop in the eighth round while stealing receiver Chris Sanders in the third doesn’t need anybody else to be hot.

The Oilers could be very good, very soon, and this is the biggest reason why.

12. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES--Since owner-draftnik Jeffrey Lurie took more control of their war room last year, fortunes have changed. After two years of mostly questionable picks--with the exception of second-round running back Charlie Garner in 1994--Lurie and Coach Ray Rhodes hit on four winners.

Last year’s honor roll: defensive end Mike Mamula, cornerback Bobby Taylor, tackle Barrett Brooks and wide receiver Chris T. Jones, who could become a force this season.

13. CAROLINA PANTHERS--Not a bad haul in their first season, considering they found three solid starters at important positions--quarterback Kerry Collins, cornerback Tyrone Poole, and tackle Blake Brockermeyer. Looks like former Bill general manager Bill Polian is building another championship here.

WHO’S NOT

14. WASHINGTON REDSKINS--For every seventh-round pick spent on quarterback Gus Frerotte, there was a first-rounder on quarterback Heath Shuler.

First-round cornerback Tom Carter and wide receiver Michael Westbrook were nice. But second-round running back Reggie Brooks and tackle Tre Johnson were not.

15. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS--They took Mirer with their first pick in 1993, and their draft-day fortunes have never been the same. The descent continued with defensive tackle Sam Adams in 1994. Receiver Joey Galloway and tight end Christian Fauria in the first two rounds last year was at least a start.

16. ARIZONA CARDINALS--OK, so they found fullback Ron Moore in the fourth round in 1993. That was also the year they made Garrison Hearst their top pick, and now they’re trying to get rid of him.

They also flunked the first pick in 1994 with linebacker Jamir Miller and then traded away the first pick last year for receiver Rob Moore. After which they scored with receiver Frank Sanders, then flunked again with third-round quarterback Stoney Case.

Four words this draft season give hope to Cardinal fans everywhere: No more Buddy Ryan.

17. NEW YORK GIANTS--The annual draft-day feuds between General Manager George Young and Coach Dan Reeves have exacted a price. It has come in the form of first-round disappointments such as defensive end Michael Strahan, receiver Thomas Lewis and running back Tyrone Wheatley.

The Giants ended last year with a sixth-round steal in defensive end Jamal Duff but need to do much better, much earlier, to return to contention.

18. NEW YORK JETS--Their selection of Blair Thomas over Emmitt Smith was more than three years ago, but the hex remains. They’ve had only one decent pick in each of the last three years--fifth-round running back Adrian Murrell in 1993, first-round cornerback Aaron Glenn in 1994 and first-round defensive end Hugh Douglas last year. And who knows, maybe top pick Marvin Jones from 1993 will finally stay sound.

But, c’mon, Coleman Rudolph in the second round? Lou Benfatti in the third?

Even though they have the first pick today, they need to score with more than that.

19. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS--Yes, 1993 first-rounder Willie Roaf might eventually be the best tackle ever. But that does not excuse top picks Joe Johnson (1994) and Mark Fields (1995).

No wonder possible lame-duck Coach Jim Mora won’t be doing much of the picking this year, while General Manager Bill Kuharich will.

20. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS--Trades and free-agent signings have robbed this win-now organization of many top picks. The ones they have had, they have bored us with.

Guard Will Shields was a good third-rounder in 1993, but the first- and second-round running back tandem of Greg Hill and Donnell Bennett in 1994 has been mediocre. They scored with kick returner Tamarick Vanover with the third pick last year, but blew it with tackle Trezelle Jenkins with the first pick.

Throw in last season’s playoff disaster, and this is a team in need of a big name this weekend.

21. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS--OK, so first-round tackle Tony Boselli is going to be there forever. They are so in love with their other first-round pick last year, running back James Stewart, that they recently picked up Natrone Means.

At least they gave Rob Johnson a home--even if it is on the bench as a fourth-rounder.

22. ST. LOUIS RAMS--If first-rounder Jerome Bettis and second-rounder Troy Drayton had not faltered so badly at the end of last year, these guys would have been in a different category.

But for now, they can only brag about first-rounder Kevin Carter and second-rounder Isaac Bruce.

They should continue to keep quiet about tackle Wayne Gandy, who was the 15th pick in the entire 1994 draft.

23. ATLANTA FALCONS--They have used third-round picks on bad punters (Harold Alexander), second-round picks on spacey running backs (Ronald Davis), and first-round picks on slow, fat guys (Lincoln Kennedy).

Granted, they took quarterback Bert Emanuel from Rice in the second round in 1994 and turned him into a pretty good receiver. And Roger Harper, who was traded to Dallas on Friday, is a pretty good safety for a second-round pick. But two players in three years? No wonder they sold their souls to Jeff George.

24. DENVER BRONCOS--They’ve traded for so many aging veterans and signed so many broken-down free agents, that they rarely have any high picks.

Good thing too, considering they have used a first-rounder on injury-prone defensive end Dan Williams and a second-rounder on slow-starting linebacker Allen Aldridge.

They can brag about finding running back Terrell Davis in the sixth round, and kicker Jason Elam in the third, but little else. No wonder they’re talking about trading a bunch of this year’s picks for Arizona’s oft-hurt defensive tackle Eric Swann.

25. DETROIT LIONS--Two of their top picks in the last three years have been disappointments, and the third still needs maturing. Cornerback Ryan McNeil and defensive end Luther Elliss have been meaningless, and receiver Johnnie Morton has taken two full years to show anything.

As if Wayne Fontes really needed another reason to be ripped.

26. OAKLAND RAIDERS--Patrick Bates, Rob Frederickson and Napoleon Kaufman. Three first-round picks, three more reasons that Al Davis could be losing it.

Yes, linebacker Greg Biekert was a steal in the seventh round.

Did we mention third-round pick Calvin Jones?

27. CHICAGO BEARS--No coach is under more pressure this weekend than Dave Wannstedt. He picks the team, and his three-year record here is weak.

Of his seven selections in the first and second rounds, only Curtis Conway has become a standout, and only then after two years of struggling. The disappointments are defensive tackle Carl Simpson, defensive ends John Thierry and Patrick Riley, tackle Marcus Spears and running back Rashaan Salaam.

And, oh yes, don’t forget punter Todd Sauerbrun, last year’s second-round disaster. Wannstedt won’t.

28. CINCINNATI BENGALS--A quick glance at their last three No. 1 picks is hard on the eyes.

Running back Ki-Jana Carter injured his knee and has yet to play an NFL regular-season down, defensive tackle Dan Wilkinson is more renowned for an alleged assault on his pregnant girlfriend than for any on-field tackle and defensive end John Copeland has been compared to a chair.

Receiver Darnay Scott was a brilliant second-round pick in 1994, and linebacker Steve Tovar was a decent third-rounder and kicker Doug Pelfrey a lucky eighth-rounder in 1993.

29. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS--A legacy that began with first-round flops Broderick Thomas, Keith McCants, Charles McRae--not to mention a Bo Jackson who never showed up--lives on.

Those names have been replaced in the last three years by Eric Curry, Trent Dilfer and Warren Sapp.

OK, so we’ll give them a good second-round hit in 1994 with running back Errict Rhett. And receiver Horace Copeland was a nice find in the fourth round in 1993. But they have a lot of catching up to do.

30. DALLAS COWBOYS--For integrity’s sake, we are recording only the last two drafts here because they were the first two conducted by owner Jerry Jones after he rid himself of Jimmy Johnson.

Maybe 500 other people could have truly coached the Cowboys, as Jones once said of Johnson. But 500 other people certainly couldn’t have drafted for them, as Jones is learning the hard way.

Of his seven picks in the first three rounds, Jones has come up with only one solid contributor--guard Larry Allen.

Defensive end Shante Carver is lost. Running back Sherman Williams is irrelevant. And two tight ends selected early last year--Kendell Watkins and Eric Bjornson--are so limited that when they do play, they platoon.

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

NFL Mock Draft

1. New York Jets. . . . Somebody, anybody, to help new quarterback Neil O’Donnell make plays. . . . Keyshawn Johnson, wide receiver, USC.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars. . . . Somebody, anybody, to put down the opposing quarterback. The Jaguars had a league-low 17 sacks. They can trade this pick and still get that person. . . . Simeon Rice, defensive end, Illinois.

3. Arizona Cardinals. . . . Boomer Esiason’s life is in jeopardy, and their 24th-ranking offense has no chance of improvement, if they don’t find another blocker to join new acquisition Lomas Brown. . . . Jonathan Ogden, tackle, UCLA.

4. Baltimore Ravens. . . . They are one running back from returning to the playoffs. New Coach Ted Marchibroda knows another Marshall Faulk when he sees one. They may trade up for this pick, but it will be worth it. . . . Lawrence Phillips, running back, Nebraska.

5. New York Giants. . . . Only three teams had fewer sacks last year. They need a pass rusher, and a great one will be still be on the board at this spot. . . . Kevin Hardy, linebacker, Illinois.

6. St. Louis Rams (from Washington). . . . What they really need is a quarterback, but Tennessee’s Peyton Manning won’t be available until next year, so they will settle for somebody to replace sluggish Jerome Bettis and make new quarterback Steve Walsh’s life easier. . . . Tim Biakabutuka, running back, Michigan.

7. New England Patriots. . . . They learned last year that quarterback Drew Bledsoe needs help. This is their best chance to give it to him. . . . Terry Glenn, wide receiver, Ohio State.

8. Carolina Panthers. . . . Last year they built their offense. This year they need to revitalize an aging defense. . . . Duane Clemons, defensive end, California.

9. Houston Oilers. . . . Despite last year’s selection of Rodney Thomas, they are still looking for a running back who can play the entire game in a one-back offense. They will ignore pass-rushing needs if that guy is available. . . . Eddie George, running back, Ohio State.

10. Cincinnati Bengals. . . . Jeff Blake will pelt the scouts with those 60-yard parachute passes if they don’t find him more protection. . . . Willie Anderson, tackle, Auburn.

11. New Orleans Saints. . . . Their 22nd-ranking defense needs to give quarterback Jim Everett more chances to win games. . . . Regan Upshaw, defensive end, California.

12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers. . . . If they don’t trade this pick to the Arizona Cardinals for defensive tackle Eric Swann, new defense-minded Coach Tony Dungy will push for a pass rusher. . . . Cedric Jones, defensive end, Oklahoma.

13. St. Louis. . . . The Rams want to complete their offensive transformation by giving wide receiver Isaac Bruce a running mate. There should be one available here who could outshine Keyshawn Johnson. . . . Marvin Harrison, wide receiver, Syracuse.

14. Seattle Seahawks. . . . They had been figuring on taking guard Pete Kendall from Boston College, but may waver if a top pass rusher is available. . . . Tony Brackens, defensive end, Texas.

15. Denver Broncos. . . . If the Buccaneers haven’t beaten them to it, they figure to trade this pick to Arizona for Swann. Otherwise, a cornerback for those AFC West wars would be nice. . . . Alex Molden, cornerback, Oregon.

16. Minnesota Vikings. . . . Defensive tackle John Randle is begging them to find somebody to take Henry Thomas’ place alongside him and turn this defense into a force again. . . . Marcus Jones, defensive tackle, North Carolina.

17. Oakland Raiders. . . . They desperately need a big guy who can block and catch, and are willing to trade up to get one. . . . Rickey Dudley, tight end, Ohio State

18. Chicago Bears. . . . Beset with visions of Scott Mitchell and Brett Favre carving up the league’s 27th-ranking defense, execs here know exactly where to look. . . . Walt Harris, cornerback, Mississippi State.

19. Indianapolis Colts (from Atlanta). . . . General Manager Bill Tobin needs a cornerback. If the best ones are gone, he will pick another playmaker, hoping that next year’s AFC championship drive won’t again fall one pass short. . . . Eddie Kennison, wide receiver, LSU.

20. Miami Dolphins. . . . There is little chance that Jimmy Johnson will stay at this spot and allow so many good defensive players to be picked. But if he does, he will begin the search to replace linebacker Bryan Cox. . . . Ray Lewis, linebacker, University of Miami.

21. Detroit Lions (from San Diego). . . . The league’s 23rd-ranking defense is desperately in need of some post-Chris Spielman linebackers. There should be one waiting for them. . . . John Mobley, linebacker, Kutztown of Pennsylvania.

22. Tampa Bay (from Indianapolis). . . . Trent Dilfer and the league’s 26th-ranking passing attack need protection. . . . Jermane Mayberry, tackle, Texas A & M Kingsville.

23. Detroit. . . . Now, the league’s second-ranking passing attack needs to help its rushing game. . . . Peter Kendall, guard, Boston College.

24. Buffalo Bills. . . . Even with the addition of Quinn Early, they are old and creaky at wide receiver, not a good thing in a Jim Kelly-run offense. . . . Derrick Mayes, wide receiver, Notre Dame.

25. Philadelphia Eagles. . . . They need a young wide receiver who can learn the West Coast offense and allow Coach Ray Rhodes to dream of a former charge named Jerry Rice. . . . Eric Moulds, wide receiver, Mississippi State.

26. Baltimore (from San Francisco). . . . Having picked a franchise running back, the Ravens need a tight end to block for him. They may keep this pick, or trade to the New York Jets for Johnny Mitchell. . . . Jason Dunn, tight end, Eastern Kentucky.

27. Green Bay Packers. . . . They wanted Mayes, but will settle for a running back they hope will not imitate recent draft bust LeShon Johnson. . . . Leeland McElroy, running back, Texas A&M.;

28. Kansas City Chiefs. . . . After winning a division title with oversized veterans Joe Phillips and Dan Saleaumua in the middle, they will take a chance on another one. . . . Daryl Gardener, defensive tackle, Baylor.

29. Pittsburgh Steelers--They recently rid themselves of fullback John L. Williams, and a Texas jury may relieve them of running back Bam Morris. You figure it out. . . . Mike Alstott, fullback, Purdue.

30. Dallas Cowboys--They need all kinds of defensive linemen and linebackers, and perhaps even a wide receiver in case Michael Irvin spends the winter in an orange jumpsuit. But what they need more than anything is the economic relief that will come with trading out of the first round for a second consecutive year. . . . Reggie Brown, linebacker, Texas A&M.;