TYSON WILL WIN

Forget November.

Forget the sight of Mike Tyson lying helplessly on the ropes. That was caused by the head of Evander Holyfield, not by his fists.

Take away the head butt, and Tyson may well have won that fight. Take away the head butt, and what you have tonight at the MGM Grand Garden is a 30-year-old Tyson, rejuvenated under new trainer Richie Giachetti, still possessor of the most deadly punch in boxing, down to an effective 218 pounds, back to the basics that made him the terror of the boxing world, facing a 34-year-old Holyfield, an inconsistent fighter who has trouble stringing good performances together, having lost two of his last five fights and three of his last eight.

After tonight, after Tyson gets through with Holyfield, it will be four losses in nine fights.

All that said, however, it must be conceded that there is one question hovering over Tyson as he prepares for battle: Is he in the right frame of mind?

Until 48 hours ago, Tyson seemed mentally ready. He has appeared to be dedicated to avenging his defeat to Holyfield since the moment he realized he had lost.

That didn’t come 37 seconds into Round 11 when referee Mitch Halpern stopped the fight. At that point, his brain fogged by a concussion, Tyson wasn’t even aware he had lost.

But once his head cleared, Tyson accepted the reality of his defeat, understood the error of his ways in terms of preparation and strategy and set himself on a new course.

He got rid of trainer Jay Bright, who had offered little or nothing in the way of advice in the corner, and called in Giachetti, the trainer who had been with Tyson before his incarceration on a rape conviction.

Giachetti knew Tyson was serious once he arrived on the scene.

“Stay out of the gym,” Tyson told the rest of his handlers. “I want a week alone with Richie.”

In Giachetti’s trained eyes, there was much more than a week’s work to be done. He saw a Tyson who had grown sloppy, lazy and complacent, who no longer relied on his jab, whose footwork was out of step, whose whole approach was out of sync.

Although he had accepted defeat, Tyson still couldn’t bear to watch it. When Giachetti assumed command three months after the fight, Tyson still hadn’t been able to bring himself to see it on tape.

Nearly six weeks into his rebirth under Giachetti, Tyson finally watched the fight and saw all of the mistakes Giachetti had been pointing out.

“Richie, you’re absolutely right,” Tyson said. “Now I understand what you’ve been telling me.”

Giachetti has promised a new Tyson in the ring tonight. Or rather, the old Tyson. Giachetti is a firm believer in the jab, a punch Tyson didn’t use in the first fight.

Tyson strode into the ring last November as if he expected Holyfield to melt at the mere sight of him.

Now Tyson knows his bullying tactics won’t work. Now he knows he must start with the jab to keep Holyfield at bay. It’s a punch Holyfield doesn’t like. Now Tyson knows he must use body shots, punches that have bothered Holyfield in the past. Now Tyson knows he must first soften Holyfield before he goes to his favorite punch, the left hook. Otherwise, Holyfield will nullify that punch by tying up Tyson inside as he did in the first fight.

So for Tyson to win, he must:

* Jab early and often, and avoid the counterpunch.

* Go to the body.

* Finish Holyfield off with his devastating power.

All this Tyson can do.

He is still the most frightening slugger in boxing. One well-placed punch from Tyson can undo all the confidence Holyfield has built up in the 7 1/2 months since his victory.

But has Tyson totally regained his confidence?

The brouhaha of the past two days over the choice of Halpern to again be the referee shows that Tyson still hasn’t been able to put the first fight behind him.

The old Tyson neither knew nor cared who the third man in the ring was. He was too busy focusing on destroying the man wearing the trunks.

If Tyson is still focused on the referee, now Mills Lane, when he enters the ring tonight, he will lose.

But that’s not going to happen.

Prediction: Tyson, by fifth-round knockout.

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TALE OF THE TAPE

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Holyfield Tyson Record 333 452 Knockouts 24 39 Age 34 30 Weight 218 218 Height 6-2 1/2 5-11 1/2 Reach 77 1/2 71 Chest (normal) 43 43 Chest (expanded) 45 45 Biceps 16 16 Forearm 12 1/2 14 Waist 32 34 Thigh 22 27 Calf 13 19 Neck 19 1/2 20 1/2 Wrist 7 1/2 8 Fist 12 1/2 13

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FIGHT INFO

When: Tonight

Where: MGM Grand Hotel, Las Vegas

TV: Pay-per-view, show begins at 6 p.m.