GAMES OF THE WEEK

If the Buccaneers win, the Packers fall three behind and probably have to start thinking wild card for the playoffs, given the difficulty of their schedule. If the Buccaneers win, President Clinton calls a national holiday and the state of Wisconsin goes into mourning. Tampa Bay defeated Green Bay two years ago, 13-10, and last year lost, 13-7, with Green Bay having to make a defensive stand on the final drive to preserve the victory.

Line: Green Bay by 8

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These are teams that mirror each other in strengths, although the Broncos have won nine in a row over the Patriots, including the last two seasons by a combined score of 71-11. The Broncos have been able to run on the Patriots, but New England is now coached by defensive whiz Pete Carroll, which could force Denver to change its approach. The Broncos have the home-field advantage and quarterback John Elway, who has begun throwing to Shannon Sharpe in recent weeks.

Line: Denver by 4 1/2

ON TV

* Kansas City (4-1) at Miami (2-2), 10 a.m., Channel 4: One more test to see if the Chiefs are for real and are going to remain in pursuit of the Broncos.

Line: Miami by 3

* San Diego (2-3) at Oakland (2-3), 1 p.m., Channel 4: The Raiders have to stop Tony Martin, and the Chargers have to figure out a way to shut down an offense featuring Napoleon Kaufman, Jeff George, Tim Brown and James Jett.

Line: Oakland by 6

* New Orleans (1-4) at Chicago (0-5), 5 p.m., TNT: A game for the true die-hard football fan or everyday citizen with no life.

Line: Chicago by 3

SUNDAY’S OTHER GAMES

* Dallas at N.Y. Giants, 10 a.m.

Line: Dallas by 7

* Detroit at Buffalo, 10 a.m.

Line: Buffalo by 4

* Pittsburgh at Baltimore, 10 a.m.

Line: Pittsburgh by 2

* Washington at Philadelphia, 10 a.m.

Line: Philadelphia by 3 1/2

* Cincinnati at Jacksonville, 10 a.m.

Line: Jacksonville by 7

* San Diego at Oakland, 1 p.m.

Line: Oakland by 6

* Minnesota at Arizona, 1 p.m.

Line: Arizona by 1

* Tennessee at Seattle, 1 p.m.

Line: Seattle by 5 1/2

* N.Y. Jets at Indianapolis, 1 p.m.

Line: Jets by 3

Five Things to Look For:

1. Coach Mike Ditka losing in his regular-season return to Chicago. Ditka is winless in his last eight road games as an NFL head coach. The Bears lost their last five road games under Ditka in 1992, and the Saints are 0-3 away from the Superdome this season. In his last 14 games overall, Ditka is 2-12.

2. Ditka will try to end his losing record by moving bruising fullback Ray Zellars to tailback. Last year Zellars ran for 174 yards in a 27-24 win over the Bears.

3. A very unhappy Ditka if he loses in Chicago. Ditka’s wife, Diana, ran into a couple of Saint players on her visit to the team’s offices this week and told them, “Listen, if you guys don’t win in Chicago, don’t even bother to come back.”

When one of the players asked her, “How’s the coach?” she replied, “He’s not happy, and I’ve got to live with him.”

“We want it as bad as he does,” said the player.

“I don’t think so,” she said. “You don’t know how bad he hates to lose.”

Diana Ditka added, “Mike’s not a quitter. I told him, ‘It took them 30 years to screw this place up. You can’t win in one year.’ . . . If they lose in Chicago, it will be the biggest embarrassment to Mike.”

4. Seattle quarterback Warren Moon to have his way with Tennessee’s pass defense. The Oilers have not had an interception this season; they had a dozen last year.

5. Keep an eye on Minnesota quarterback Brad Johnson. Johnson experienced swelling in his throwing elbow after last week’s game, and had to have his elbow drained. He continues to practice, but let’s see how he does against the Cardinals.

AROUND THE AFC

WEST

Denver Runs Deep Looking for an indication of who will win Monday night’s showdown between the Patriots and Broncos? In their last two meetings, Denver has outscored New England, 71-11, racking up 825 yards in total offense to New England’s 547. Denver has run for 319 yards, the Patriots 98. “I would say that we definitely match up well against them,” Bronco linebacker Bill Romanowski said. . . . It appeared the Chiefs were beginning to move away from running back Greg Hill and going back to Marcus Allen, but Coach Marty Schottenheimer said that will not be the case. “Greg’s the starter. Marcus will fill the role he has filled at the outset. We said Marcus would be short yardage and goal line but it was never our intention to exclude him from plays from the line of scrimmage. I don’t see him getting any more and, frankly, not as many opportunities as he’s gotten the last couple of weeks.” Sure. . . . The only offensive weapon capable of hurting the Raiders appears to be San Diego wide receiver Tony Martin. Last year Martin burned Raider cornerback Larry Brown for 10 passes for 138 yards and three touchdowns. And now Brown might have to cover him again. Brown, who hasn’t played since halftime of the second game of the season because of poor play, might have to fill in for injured cornerbacks Albert Lewis and Terry McDaniel. . . . The Seahawks are missing six injured starters. “This is the most beat up I’ve ever had a football team,” said Coach Dennis Erickson.

Did you know? Projecting the Raiders’ numbers over a 16-game schedule, Jeff George would break all NFL records with 304 completions in 531 attempts with 42 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. “Let’s see--we put 35 points on the board [against St. Louis] and we didn’t show up until just before halftime,” right tackle Lincoln Kennedy said.

Sidelight: The Patriots are 4-0 and coming off a visit to the Super Bowl, but Denver tight end Shannon Sharpe is not concerned. “I’ll put it like this, they could have 12 of the greatest players in NFL history, but if we keep No. 7 upright, keep his jersey clean, and if we open holes for No. 30, I like our chances against anybody.”

CENTRAL

A Regular October Fest The Bengals are 6-22 in September since 1991, which makes them a prohibitive favorite over Jacksonville this week because it’s now October. . . . Two weeks ago it appeared Cincinnati running back Ki-Jana Carter was finished for the season because of a torn rotator cuff, but now he expects to start Sunday. “I think when I sit out, I’m letting the team down,” he said. . . . The Jaguars have been less than impressive since the return of quarterback Mark Brunell from a knee injury and some have suggested he returned too early. “I think that’s foolish,” Brunell said. In a poll in a local newspaper, 749 fans suggested he came back too early, 248 disagreed. . . . Politicians in Tennessee are now pounding the Oilers for not changing their name and doing a better job of public relations since moving from Houston. “They are going to have to change the name,” said Tennessee Gov. Don Sundquist. “I don’t see how they can survive as the Tennessee Oilers.”

Did you know? Cincinnati wide receiver Carl Pickens scored five touchdowns in two games against the Jaguars last season and has seven in four games against Jacksonville.

Sidelight: Linebacker Greg Lloyd, who has always been somewhat of a contrary fellow, has played poorly on the field and has taken it out on the media. Members of the Pittsburgh media say the best way to avoid physical contact with Lloyd now is to carry the football.

EAST

Delusions of Grandeur

The 0-4 Colts just don’t get it. “I really do think everybody believes we are a good team,” safety Jason Belser said. “I’m not going to sit here and lie to you and say we don’t have a sense of urgency for a win. That’d be about as big a lie as I’ve ever told in my life.” . . . New England quarterback Drew Bledsoe has completed only 46% of his passes in two games against the Broncos with no touchdowns and one interception. . . . The Jets are favored in Indianapolis, the first time they have been favored on the road since Oct. 30, 1994 against the Colts.

Did you know? The last time New England beat Denver in Denver was 1968.

Sidelight: The Dolphins are struggling to sell out Sunday’s game against the Chiefs, which would make three straight games that have been blacked out locally. So much for Jimmy Johnson’s magnetism.

AROUND THE NFC

WEST

Sitting Around Is Tiring How injury-prone is Atlanta quarterback Chris Chandler? He now gets sick doing nothing. “I can’t sit around any longer; you can’t imagine how sick that makes me feel,” said Chandler, who has been knocked out of all three Falcon home games. . . . Carolina Coach Dom Capers has been thrown into a panic after the Panthers’ collapse against the 49ers. In addition to benching quarterback Kerry Collins because even Collins admitted, “I have been stinking up the joint,” Capers will start rookie safety Mike Minter over Pat Terrell and Matt Campbell will replace Matt Elliott at right guard. The guy is apparently not used to losing. . . . The 49ers are 3-5 coming off a bye, but they return to work against the Rams, whom they have defeated 14 straight times.

Did you know? A year ago the Rams finished second in the league in penalties under Coach Rich Brooks; under Dick Vermeil they rank No. 1 in penalties.

Sidelight: Saint owner Tom Benson met with the team’s captains to give them a pep talk; anyone who has ever heard Benson speak might ask, Did they stay awake? “He’s the owner,” cornerback Eric Allen said. “He’s entitled to get his 10 cents in.” Sounds like the players were very impressed.

CENTRAL

Sauerbrun Not Sweet How bad are things going for the Bears? Last week they brought in kicking coach Ray Pelfrey to work with erratic punter Todd Sauerbrun. Sauerbrun outkicked the team’s punt coverage, setting up an 83-yard return for a touchdown by Deion Sanders. This week the Bears brought in punter Mike Horan for a tryout. . . . Lion running back Barry Sanders needs 122 yards to pass Jim Brown (12,312) for fourth place on the all-time rushing list. Sanders will have passed Brown in the same number of years it took Brown to compile his yardage, and while Brown’s 5.2 yards a carry are best among the NFL’s all-time leading rushers; Sanders is second best at 4.9. . . . Minnesota tackle Todd Steussie has already been fined $5,000 for making an illegal block, and after his comments regarding NFL officiating, he might be fined again. “You can quote me on this and I don’t even care if I get fined,” Steussie said. “They [refs] were out to get us. There must have been some money passed under the table or something.”

Did you know? Green Bay’s Mike Holmgren suffered his worst loss as coach of the Packers at Tampa, 31-3, in 1992. He has won eight of the last nine games over the Buccaneers, however.

Sidelight: Detroit Coach Bobby Ross has become irritated with questions regarding the Lions’ lack of consistency. “I’ll tell you what,” he snapped. “Y’all are on this thing, and y’all just won’t leave it alone, will you? God almighty, I mean we had a nice win. For cripes sake, let it be enjoyed. I’ve been around a lot of writers. I’ve never seen this kind of thing before. But go ahead, I’ll answer your damn questions.” That’s what he said in San Diego too.

EAST

Smith’s Slowing Down Dallas running back Emmitt Smith continues to look a step slower, so the Cowboys will now use the fresh legs of Sherman Williams more often. “You lose speed as you get older, no question about it. Father Time gets everybody,” Dallas Coach Barry Switzer said. . . . The Redskins feel good about themselves, giving up less than 10 points a game on defense. But a warning sign: The Redskins rank No. 29 against the run. . . . The Giants have no choice but to play running back Tyrone Wheatley now that Tiki Barber and Rodney Hampton are injured. Wheatley ran for a career-high 69 yards in an upset win over Dallas last season. “They’re just another team in our way of what we’re trying to do,” Wheatley said. “To hell with them, they’re just like everybody else.” Remember, the guy doesn’t get to play often. . . . The Eagles have had troubles on offense because defenses are daring Ty Detmer to throw by putting eight defenders up front. The Eagles considered switching from Detmer to Rodney Peete this week, but have elected to stay with the tiny guy.

Did you know? Since 1993, in their first meeting each season with the Cowboys, the Giants have been outscored, 131-19, including 62-0 the past two years.

Sidelight: Word out of Philadelphia is that Coach Ray Rhodes liked the idea of Detmer and Ricky Watters getting into an argument last week, although publicly he said he could not condone such behavior. “You have to be more professional than that,” he said. So how come he was smiling?

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

THE TIMES’ RANKINGS BY T.J. SIMERS

NFL TOP TO BOTTOM

No. Team (Record): Comment

1. Denver (5-0): If it’s a battle of quarterbacks, Broncos win.

2. New England (4-0): If it’s a war determined by running backs, Patriots win.

3. Tampa Bay (5-0): Buccaneers have to score first, hog ball with Alstott and Dunn.

4. Dallas (3-1): Cowboys are angry because they can’t score touchdowns, catch a break--play Giants.

5. Green Bay (3-2): Favre wouldn’t talk after losing to Lions, might quit if loses to Buccaneers.

6. San Francisco (4-1): 49ers lead the league in rushing attempts to save Young.

7. Jacksonville (3-1): Has problems stopping the run, but Bengals no threat.

8. Kansas City (4-1): Greg Hill needs to reestablish himself.

9. Washington (3-1): Can get beat by team that can run the ball.

10. Minnesota (3-2): Value of a healthy Robert Smith becomes more apparent each week.

11. Pittsburgh (2-2): Teams that allow Kordell Stewart to run, lose.

12. New York Jets (3-2): Parcells making stars out of Murrell, O’Donnell.

13. Cincinnati (1-3): Bengals befuddled, get no reprieve against Jaguars.

14. Detroit (3-2): If Mitchell starts playing well, Lions become factor.

15. Carolina (2-3): Collins is a mess, defense has crumbled.

16. Miami (2-2): Still looking for someone to catch passes.

17. Buffalo (2-2): Time to switch to Antowain Smith.

18. Baltimore (3-2): They started fast last year and then faded.

19. Oakland (2-3): All that offense, but where’s the defense?

20. Seattle (2-3): Should be able to throw the ball against the Oilers.

21. Philadelphia (1-3): Detmer continues to fall short of expectations.

22. St. Louis (2-3): Still waiting to see Dick Vermeil work his magic.

23. Arizona (1-3): Right on the verge of pulling an upset.

24. New York Giants (2-3): Shortage of running backs puts heat on Dave Brown.

25. Tennessee (1-3): Bad team doesn’t help bad public relations.

26. San Diego (2-3): The Chargers don’t have the firepower to keep up with Raiders.

27. New Orleans (1-4): If he can will it, Mike Ditka will have the Saints beat the Bears.

28. Indianapolis (0-4): A bye stakes the Colts to a fresh start.

29. Atlanta (0-5): Only chance for a win might be in defeating the Saints.

30. Chicago (0-5): Losing to Mike Ditka will be a career-killer for Dave Wannstedt.