THE NFL / T.J. SIMERS : For Packers’ Sake, Bucs Must Stop Here

Parity takes a holiday as the most promising weekend of the NFL season presents undefeated New England playing Monday night at unbeaten Denver, and unbelievable Tampa Bay on Sunday taking a bow in Titletown, USA.

Three great teams out of four isn’t bad.

Sure, it would be better if San Francisco or Dallas were challenging the Buccaneers, but the Green Bay Packers are still hanging in there above .500.

“This is a must win,” said Packer safety LeRoy Butler. “I mean a must, must win.”

Six bottles of Cheesehead Beer go for $5.99 here, but there won’t be enough of it in town to wash away

the disappointment of a defeat against the upstart Buccaneers or the realization that there is nothing more to look forward to than the St. John’s Pig Roast on Oct. 19 or the 57 remaining days of duck-hunting season.

A loss to Tampa Bay and authorities in nearby DePere will probably have to close the bridge across the Fox River to keep the locals from jumping. Can a genuine Cheesehead double as a life preserver?

“I’ve got fans coming up to me now all worried because we’ve lost two games, we won’t get the Lambeau Field advantage in the playoffs and we can’t win anywhere else,” said Packer safety Eugene Robinson. “Nonsense. Nonsense. The season doesn’t end right now.”

Maybe not, but it will get very ugly if the Buccaneers advance to 6-0 with a three-game lead on the Packers and 10 games to play. The Packers still have a traditional loss to Dallas ahead on their schedule, Monday night Super Bowl revenge for the Patriots in New England and only one Lambeau Field December date to their advantage, and that’s against weather-toughened Buffalo.

“We keep saying, well, once we get it rolling,” said Brett Favre, Green Bay quarterback. “But we hope it’s not eight losses into the season before we start getting it rolling. So yes, there is a sense of urgency here.”

At first blush, the Buccaneers, of course, have no chance, because they are the Bucs, and they will be playing at Lambeau Field, where the Packers have won 25 consecutive games, counting exhibition, regular-season and playoff games.

“With our national reputation, people are waiting for us to fall apart,” said Tony Dungy, Tampa Bay coach. “They say, ‘Hey, they are the Bucs. The wheels are going to fall off sooner or later.’ ”

The oddsmakers apparently figure it’s time for the Buccaneers to bounce back to earth; of the 13 games to be played this weekend, Tampa Bay is the biggest underdog--in some places by as much as 8 1/2 points.

“They haven’t been watching video of them like we have,” Robinson said. “Right now the Bucs have that disease; it’s contagious and every one of them wants to make a play. They made a believer out of me last year; I saw it coming.”

Tampa Bay opened last season 0-5, losing Dungy’s coaching debut, 34-3, to Green Bay, but came back seven weeks later at Lambeau Field to lose, 13-7, only after the Packers were able to keep the Buccaneers from scoring in the closing minutes.

Instead of losing those games as they did a year ago, the Buccaneers are now winning them. As a result, there are signs everywhere in Green Bay: “Break Up the Bucs.”

A Milwaukee reporter who covers the Packers wrote an article this week quoting an unnamed coach, who said of the Buccaneers, “They’re not a great football team; they’re far from it. They’ve gotten every break in the book, their defense is pretty damn average and I think from here on in [quarterback Trent] Dilfer will have some problems.” The article has since gotten as much attention in the Tampa Bay locker room as last week’s Sports Illustrated with the Buccaneers featured on the cover.

Whatever everyone’s opinion, the fairy tale continues for now, and the Buccaneers are just having fun.

“This is my favorite week in the whole year,” said Dilfer, who turned to former teammate Casey Weldon last year after Reggie White had been introduced at Lambeau Field, and said, “Right now is the greatest feeling I’ve had in the NFL.”

“It’s the greatest atmosphere in the world,” explained Dilfer, who has a higher quarterback rating than Favre this season, and while throwing the same number of touchdown passes (10), has four fewer interceptions. “I can’t think of a better place to play football. To me, it’s the ultimate. Grass field, great team. When Brett Favre or Reggie White gets announced, it’s electric.”

The Packers, last year’s wonder kids, were pegged to go 19-0 and repeat as Super Bowl champions this season, but now may find themselves struggling merely to finish with a respectable record.

“We’re not rattled,” Robinson said. “Sure, the Bucs are a great story; they are shocking the heck out of the entire nation. They have beaten San Francisco, Detroit, Minnesota, Miami and Arizona--now who would have thunk it?

“It’s like [1979] when the Bucs had Lee Roy Selmon and the slogan ‘From Worst to First’ and went to the playoffs. They can go with that slogan again, they have new uniforms, new people and everything is looking good. It’s the Cinderella type deal, and now they think they’re coming to Green Bay to knock off the giants.”

The “giants” look more like Goliath already knocked to his knees. Unnerved after last week’s loss to Detroit, the Packers closed practices this week, although it’s no great mystery what they had to be working on: Their offensive line.

Starting left tackle John Michaels did not practice this week because of a knee injury, starting right tackle Earl Dotson suffered a disk injury Wednesday, which will keep him out of this game, and rookie tackle Ross Verba has been unimpressive. Favre’s good health is now at risk.

Philadelphia took advantage of poor protection and successfully blitzed Favre for a victory earlier this year, and the Lions employed the Eagles’ defensive game plan, won and frustrated Favre so much he left the locker room refusing to talk with anyone.

And now comes Dungy, who while working as the Vikings’ defensive coordinator, compiled a 5-2 record, while limiting the NFL’s two-time MVP to seven touchdown passes with nine interceptions and 13 sacks.

“Expectations are still very high around here,” said Green Bay Coach Mike Holmgren. “I think we have all been a little bit angry this week.”

Angry or not, they are beaten up. The Packers might also be without nose tackle Gilbert Brown, who has an injured knee, which would free up the middle for Tampa Bay fullback Mike Alstott. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, have their own problems with a limping Anthony Parker at cornerback, which would force Tyrone Legette to make his sixth NFL start in six years against the Packers’ high-powered passing game.

“It’s all us,” Butler said. “It’s our team. We could kill anybody if we wanted to--we just aren’t doing it. This game is to regain our status as world champions.”

The Buccaneers are 10-2 in their last 12 games; the Packers are 8-4 in the same number of regular-season games. However, Green Bay finished last year with five consecutive victories, and then won three more games in the postseason, including the Super Bowl.

“At the end of last season, and I think you will find this also to be historically true, when you look at Super Bowl champions, they peaked at the right time,” Holmgren said.

This might be the right time for the Packers unless this is some kind of plan to escape the cold of Green Bay in late January and make the trek to Tampa Bay for the NFC playoffs as a wild-card entry.

AND ON MONDAY

Monday night TV, meanwhile, has never had two undefeated teams meet this late in the season. And this easily could be a preview of the AFC championship game with Monday night’s winner taking a giant step forward in the battle for home-field advantage.

If you subscribe to the theory that NFL teams, who have been previously embarrassed, come back to play their best football, then you have to love the Patriots, who were drilled, 34-8, last year by the Broncos.

“That was a slap in the face because we had started to play some pretty good football and it was a matchup game similar to this one,” New England quarterback Drew Bledsoe said. “We didn’t play well and they laid into us. In the long run I think it was good for us, because after that game we played very well.”

Only one problem with this theory: The Patriots were leveled by Denver two years ago, 37-3, and followed that up with last year’s 34-8 belly-flop.

The Broncos have beaten the Patriots nine times in a row, will be playing in Mile High Stadium and have shown an ability to punish New England’s defense with running back Terrell Davis, who has three touchdowns and 251 yards in 56 carries the past two games.

Denver’s weaknesses: Quarterback John Elway has had a sore throwing shoulder, the Broncos’ defense ranks No. 25 in the NFL stopping the run and kicker Jason Elam, who has an injured hip, will be replaced by Scott Bentley, who was cut by the Arizona Cardinals in the preseason.

And anyone who has watched Kevin Butler kick and miss for the Cardinals must wonder how bad Bentley is.

We could find out. Two of the last three Monday night games have come down to a last-second kick, and what better entertainment: Asking a kicker playing in his first NFL game to determine which team leaves Mile High Stadium still unbeaten.

The only thing that would make it a better story would be if he kicked for Tampa Bay.

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Carrying a Big Load

Since coming into the league in 1990, Dallas running back Emmitt Smith has averaged more than 333 carries a year. No other running back has averaged more than 300. A look:

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Player Years Carries Avg. Emmitt Smith 1990- 2,334 333.4 Barry Sanders 1989- 2,384 298.0 Walter Payton 1975-87 3,838 295.2 Thurman Thomas 1988- 2,566 285.1 Jerome Bettis 1993- 1,116 279.0 Earl Campbell 1978-85 2,187 273.4 Eric Dickerson 1983-93 1,996 272.4

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Research: HOUSTON MITCHELL / Los Angeles Times