You Don’t Have to Be Nostradamus in NFL

Man and boy, I have seen Super Bowls since the first one back in the Stone Age. Missed, maybe, a couple.

Accordingly, I bring you today a collection of Murray’s Laws for Super Sunday. This is the way to bet:

1. On a super-obvious passing situation, the quarterback can help himself to 15 yards practically every time, and on the five-yard line he can help himself to a touchdown, but he won’t. He’ll stand there with nobody around him and throw an incomplete pass instead.

2. Downing a punt on the enemy one-yard line will send fans into ecstasy but will turn out to be a terrible piece of luck, not to say mistake. Murray’s Law on this is, teams that can defend the “red zone” capably, cannot cope with a 99-yard defense zone and will fall back steadily, probably the whole 99 yards.

3. Never, ever, punt the ball if you’re in the other guy’s territory. The kicking team will either punt the ball in the end zone for a net gain of about 20 yards, or if it gets downed on the one, see above.

4. Teams that have marched down the field with wide-open, razzle-dazzle football will suddenly turn back into leather-helmeted throwbacks when they find themselves with a first down inside the five. They will resort to last-century football and throw themselves into the center of a massed line of about two tons of hostile flesh, like a mad bull into a red brick barn. They could tap-dance into the end zone with a wide play, but they won’t. They’ll fail on three plunges and then kick a field goal. Or maybe miss a field goal.

5. Scrap the “prevent defense.” Nobody ever won anything running backward. If you don’t show up at the line of scrimmage, the other quarterback isn’t going to believe his good luck. The “nickel defense” is worth just about that.

6. Always blitz the passer. Not even Brett Favre can complete a pass flat on his back.

7. Always remember you will never be beaten by the run in the NFL. Get that passer. Let ‘em run.

8. When you do have an outstanding runner to contend with, say, a Barry Sanders, key off him. Assign two players who always go where he goes. Not even Galloping Ghosts can perform in custody.

9. Bet the NFC team. The only time the AFC wins, it’s against Minnesota. Don’t forget AFC winners, Baltimore and Pittsburgh, were originally NFC teams. Baltimore joined the AFC after it couldn’t even beat the Jets.

10. Denver can’t play at sea level. Minnesota and Buffalo can’t play in a Super Bowl. The New Orleans Saints can’t play anywhere and the Oilers have no idea where they’re playing.

11. If you own a team and want to get to a Super Bowl, get a quarterback. Your coaches will want you to get nickel defensemen and down linemen. Forget about it. Get the pitcher.

12. If all things are equal, bet the coach. But you have to remember Pittsburgh’s Chuck Noll was great when he had Terry Bradshaw. Bill Parcells had Simms and Bledsoe. Even the great Bill Walsh had Montana, Halas had Sid Luckman, Paul Brown had Otto Graham. Landry had Staubach, Shula had Griese. Even Lombardi had a Starr.

13. If Pittsburgh gets in, bring a book. The Steelers are about as exciting as computer chess. Unless you’re crazy about 7-6 games.

14. The Super Bowl will be decided by the Green Bay-San Francisco game. If you don’t think so, I got a bookie who would like to leave you his mobile phone number. Call collect.

15. The game will be decided by a pass-interference call. That’s about as exciting and satisfying as having a World Series decided by a bases-loaded walk. Back in my day, there was no such call. You either caught the ball or you didn’t.

16. I make Dorsey Levens even money to be MVP if the Packers win it. But if Favre gets injured, they won’t.

17. The game probably will be a runaway. Most Super Bowls are. In recent years, Dallas beat Buffalo, 52-17 and 30-13. Washington beat Denver, 42-10, Chicago beat New England, 46-10. And San Francisco beat Denver, 55-10. That’s not a game, that’s an execution. Custer did better than that.

Now, if you’ll excuse me, I’ll go put on my cheesehead or cape shaped like a bus and mosey down to San Diego and yell “Dee-fense!” If I’m wrong, blame it on El Nino.