Count Has Alarcon Leading Katz by a Whisker

The neck-and-neck race for a state Senate seat in the San Fernando Valley remained close Tuesday following the final tally of absentee ballots, with City Councilman Richard Alarcon holding a 33-vote lead over former Assemblyman Richard Katz.

An estimated 350 so-called provisional ballots from the 20th state Senate District remained to be counted, assuring that a winner in the hard-fought Democratic primary won’t be known for days--maybe weeks.

“When it’s all said and done, we are anticipating a recount in this race,” said County Registrar-Recorder Conny B. McCormack.

Election officials Tuesday counted about 1,200 outstanding absentee and provisional ballots from the district. Provisional ballots are cast by voters whose names do not appear on the rolls but are accepted pending verification.

As of the latest count, Alarcon had 38,272 votes, or 40.90%, compared to Katz with 38,239 votes or 40.87%.

Both candidates remained optimistic but nervous as they await another tally on Friday, the next scheduled election update.

“It gives me optimism that the remaining ballots, which are mostly provisional ballots, will be consistent with the voters on election day,” said Alarcon.

Katz said he is “cautiously optimistic” but noted that it is nearly impossible to guess the outcome based on the type of ballots remaining to be counted.

“It’s a lot of tea leaves and supposition,” he said.

Katz said he is keeping his mind off the race by lifting weights, playing basketball and running. “I’ve achieved records previously unreached in all [those] sports,” he said.

The race has been unusually close from the beginning. After the polls closed last Tuesday, Katz had a 2 to 1 lead in early results. But by the time all the ballots cast at the polls were counted, Alarcon held a 791-vote lead, with about 100,000 absentee and provisional ballots left to be tallied countywide.

On Friday, Alarcon’s lead shrank to 27, after election officials counted about 80,000 countywide ballots.

Tuesday’s update indicates that the winner will probably squeak by with only the slimmest margin.

McCormack said the 350 provisional ballots remaining are mostly from voters who requested an absentee ballot but for whatever reasons showed up to vote at the polls anyway.

Over the next two days, she said, election officials will verify that those voters did not vote twice, once via absentee ballot and once at the polling sites.

Both campaigns have discussed the possibility of calling for a recount, which can only be requested within five days after the results have been certified by the county Board of Supervisors, McCormack said.

McCormack estimated it could take five days and cost $35,000 to $40,000 to recount all the ballots by hand. The candidate requesting the recount must bear the costs, but is reimbursed if the election’s outcome changes.

Should Alarcon hold onto his lead, it would vindicate his drive to get out the Latino vote. If Katz wins, it would be a triumph of his efforts to reach out to absentee voters.

An analysis of the results shows Alarcon got strong support in the heavily-Latino northeast portion of the district. Katz, meanwhile, outpaced Alarcon among absentee voters, winning 8,838 absentee votes compared with 5,604 for Alarcon.

The winner will face Republican Ollie McCaulley and Libertarian Linda Starr in the November runoffs. But the district is heavily Democratic, giving the Democratic candidate a strong advantage.

If Alarcon wins in November, he would be the first Latino state senator from the Valley and would add his name to the growing membership of the state’s Latino caucus.

Alarcon’s campaign received an infusion of cash from his most influential ally, state Sen. Richard Polanco (D-Los Angeles), the chairman of the Latino caucus. Polanco contributed $181,500 to Alarcon in the final days of the campaign through a political action committee under his control.

Polanco also issued campaign mailers to voters, tying Katz to Gov. Pete Wilson and an Orange County incident in which Republican candidates posted guards near polls to frighten off immigrant voters.

Katz called the mailer “distasteful” and a “blatant appeal to race.”

But Alarcon complained that it was Katz who drew first blood by issuing an earlier campaign mailer that criticized Alarcon for accepting a $38,000 loan from the wife of a well-connected developer who benefited from a zero-interest city loan.

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Close Race

Richard Alarcon is currently 33 votes ahead of Richard Katz in their state Senate race. But Katz is far in the lead in absentee/ provisional ballots, which are still being tallied--Alaron has 5,604 to Katz’s 8,838.

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Alarcon

Regular votes / Absentee / provisional votes: 38, 272

Katz

Regular votes / Absentee/ provisional votes: 38,239

Source: L.A. County Registrar-Recorder