Agencies Count on a Better Homeless Census

As Ventura County officials gear up to count the homeless for the 2000 census, many now concede that high-end estimates of that population have been grossly exaggerated and even the lowest numbers are a matter of dispute.

Homeless advocates have long maintained there are between 2,000 and 4,000 homeless people countywide, an estimate said to be based on a study by county officials dissatisfied with results of the 1990 census.

But the upper range of that estimate did not come from the study and certainly doesn’t hold up now, according to service providers, city leaders and county officials.

In fact, a Times analysis has found that no one could remember exactly where the number came from until the county’s homeless services chief dug up a nearly decade-old report showing the estimate to be largely based on guesswork.

Even the lower number can only be achieved by using a broad definition of homelessness that includes people who lack a permanent place to sleep but who are living at least part time in motels, shelters or other types of temporary or substandard housing.

The countywide number of hard-core homeless--people who on any given night sleep outdoors or in an emergency shelter--could be as low as 300, some city officials say.

With homelessness again emerging as a front-burner issue across the county, local officials and homeless advocates are pressing harder than ever for a more valid count, seeking to eliminate the guesswork by launching a comprehensive campaign to search out and survey that population.

And they are looking to the U.S. Census Bureau to lead the way, hoping an upcoming city-by-city count sheds light on the real numbers and needs of the homeless. That kind of hard information can help determine which programs to pursue to push them toward self-sufficiency.

“It’s a numbers game, and anyone who knows anything about numbers knows you can make them say anything you want,” said Karen Ingram, vice president of Lutheran Social Services of Southern California, which provides help to homeless people in Simi Valley and Thousand Oaks.

“I think you have to look at any number with a healthy level of cynicism tempered with a good dose of reality,” she added. “That’s why I think there’s value in doing the census and doing as accurate a count as possible. It will lend credibility to things we are trying to do.”

With the 2000 census less than a year away, a good head count is important for other reasons.

Accurate numbers help the county, cities and service providers design programs to meet the needs of the homeless and apply for grants from government agencies and private foundations to help pay for those programs.

On a broader scale, census-generated population estimates determine how much federal and state money counties receive for a variety of assistance programs.

In fact, the last time the U.S. Census Bureau counted heads in 1990, local leaders estimated the county would lose between $250 and $300 a year in state and federal money for each uncounted person.

It’s because the stakes are so high, in fact, that some city leaders believe homeless advocates have artificially inflated the numbers over the years in an effort to generate more money for their programs.

‘There’s an Industry Associated With It’

Estimates from city officials across the county put the number of homeless at anywhere from 300 to about 1,600, depending on how homelessness is defined.

City managers in Fillmore, Santa Paula and Camarillo say their communities each have just a handful of homeless people. Simi Valley estimates its homeless population at about 200, although only 25 to 35 are out on the street. Thousand Oaks figures it has a year-round homeless population of 20 to 30, with no more than 10 lacking some kind of shelter.

Oxnard figures its homeless population at 600 to 1,000. Port Hueneme claims to have none.

“I think the numbers are overblown, frankly,” Camarillo City Manager Bill Little said of the traditional estimates. “There’s an industry associated with it, and by increasing the numbers it obviously makes that industry more important.”

Social service providers say nothing could be further from the truth. Many homeless advocates are willing to concede that the 4,000 estimate is too high. But they know that 1,055 people used emergency shelters set up this winter in cities across Ventura County.

And they believe there are at least 1,000 other homeless people--and some believe as many as 2,000--who refuse to use the emergency shelters or who are living in temporary situations ranging from transitional facilities to domestic violence shelters to County Jail.

These people are not all out on the street at the same time, advocates say. Rather, these estimates include people who dip in and out of homelessness, temporarily escaping the streets on somebody’s couch or in some type of substandard housing such as a converted shed or garage.

Ultimately, social service advocates say the numbers don’t matter that much. The bottom line is there isn’t enough money to meet the needs of the homeless, no matter what the population.

“It would be nice to have a more accurate number, but to imply that if we can get bigger numbers there would be a lot more dollars out there just isn’t the case,” said Rick Pearson, executive director of the Ventura-based nonprofit agency Project Understanding.

“I’m not sure what I would do differently if somebody suddenly convinced me that the number was 1,000 instead of 2,000,” he said. “There are still people out there who need shelter or who are living in their cars or who are just a step away from being on the streets.”

Part of the problem in counting the homeless is a lack of agreement about who should be counted.

There are the so-called hard-core homeless, those who live on the streets and have few prospects of getting a roof over their heads on a given night.

When social service providers talk about homeless people, they usually use a broader definition that also includes those who live in shelters, motels or some other type of temporary or transitional housing. Some stretch the definition to include anyone who doesn’t have a permanent place to sleep but who may be doubling up for an extended period with relatives or friends.

A clear definition can make all the difference in determining the homeless population.

On a single night in Ventura, for example, 44 people used the emergency shelter in that city, according to a countywide shelter survey. But a total of 276 people used the shelter at least one night during the 2 1/2 months it was open this winter.

So, is the homeless population in need of emergency shelter in Ventura 44 or 276?

According to the federal government, the term homeless applies to anyone who lacks a “fixed, regular and adequate nighttime residence.” The definition takes in people who live in congregate shelters or anyone living in a place not ordinarily used as a permanent dwelling.

That’s the definition census takers used when they last came to Ventura County.

During a one-night survey, more than 100 enumerators visited emergency shelters, river bottoms, canyons and campgrounds for the first-ever head count of the homeless. The local effort was part of a larger push by the Census Bureau to count the number of homeless people in the United States.

But county officials and social service advocates criticized the local effort, saying it was mismanaged and failed to sample dozens of known homeless hangouts.

As a result, county officials said the effort fell short of providing an accurate picture of homelessness in the county, a gaffe they feared would result in the loss of hundreds of thousands of dollars a year in state and federal money.

All Sides on Issue Desire Accurate Count

Indeed, census officials at the time acknowledged they had botched the original count and a second conducted a few days later in response to complaints about the first.

But they said a third count a month later was thorough. The census reported finding just 504 homeless people in the county, including 347 in Oxnard, 121 in Ventura, 11 in Simi Valley and seven in Ojai.

“There’s no question that number was ridiculous,” said Richard Wittenberg, who was the county’s chief administrative officer at the time and now holds the same job for Santa Clara County. “I remember we paid for our own census and it was quite successful in terms of getting much better numbers.”

Led by the county’s former homeless ombudsman, Nancy Nazario, a coalition of service providers conducted its own canvass in 1991. Nazario, who now works for the county’s adult protective services division, said there was more to the survey than just correcting the census.

When she first started working with the homeless, service providers were tossing around estimates of 4,000 to 6,000 homeless people, she said. She thought it was important to get a solid number to help guide advocates who work with the homeless.

“There was a significant number of people in the homeless network who kind of scoffed at the notion of doing that kind of research,” Nazario recalled. “The thing I don’t like about a lot of social-work programs is that they are not based on a lot of good research. It’s hard to solve a problem when you don’t know what it looks like and what it’s composed of.”

For two weeks, dozens of volunteers fanned out across the county. They scoured river bottoms and homeless shelters. They visited nonprofit agencies and welfare offices and anyplace else they thought the homeless would be.

The survey identified 1,843 homeless people countywide, including 400 children. Nazario said she is certain that number represented an undercount, since researchers didn’t have the time to visit many of the motels, campgrounds and other areas where the homeless seek shelter. But she denied being the source countywide.

“All I knew is that 1,800 was a rock-bottom number and that there were more out there we know we didn’t count,” Nazario said.

As it turns out, the 4,000 number was generated by a 1990 county report--produced months after the census but nearly a year before Nazario’s study--that asked social workers, service providers and law enforcement officials to estimate the population based on clients served and other criteria. That produced an estimate of 2,000 people.

Then county social workers reasoned there were easily 1,000 to 2,000 more residents living in garages, cars, trailers or with relatives. That’s how the top range estimate climbed to 4,000.

County officials and service providers say it was not an effort to mislead the public, but rather an early attempt to get a handle on the depth of the problem.

But Ventura City Manager Donna Landeros said agencies that continue to serve up numbers not grounded in reality risk losing their credibility, especially now as public attention turns to finding new and innovative ways to extend services to those who truly need help.

“Their intentions are good--they want to get more funding for the homeless--but if you’re risking your credibility there is always a danger,” Landeros said. “We need to have more accurate numbers, no doubt about it. At this point, as we are trying to design and participate in a countywide approach to the problem, that can’t be done if we’re not dealing with real numbers.”

Social service advocates couldn’t agree more. Toward that end, they stand ready to join city and county officials when the Census Bureau comes to Ventura County next March for another count of the homeless.

As planned, the tally will take place over three days and nights. Census takers, many culled from the local homeless population itself, will visit a variety of shelters and social service agencies the first day and soup kitchens and other food programs the next, according to a census official.

On the final day, enumerators will target outdoor locations, such as parks and riverbeds, where the homeless are known to congregate.

Census officials already have started meeting with local officials and homeless advocates to lay the groundwork for the tally. But many service providers want to piggyback on that effort to conduct a more in-depth study of the population’s demographics, especially since the last good study is nearly a decade old and a matter of dispute.

“I believe it’s clearly time to do a more thorough count,” said Clyde Reynolds, executive director of the Turning Point Foundation, which provides services to homeless mentally ill.

“I’ve always cautioned people, and I think it’s important to say, that we don’t actually know the number of homeless people,” Reynolds added. “As we come together to look at this thing from a regional perspective, I think the first thing we need to do is stop bickering amongst ourselves and get a good handle on the numbers.”

Some service providers welcome the analysis for another reason. They say they have done a good job over the past decade in helping move people off the streets, and that could be reflected now in a lower count.

But the bottom line is that there is some segment of the population still homeless, and the more information about who they are and what it will take to get them off the streets, the better, advocates say.

“I think it’s pretty darn important to have accurate numbers when you are talking about doing responsible service planning or including them in the housing picture for the county,” said Karol Schulkin, who heads the county’s homeless services program.

“But a person in need is a person in need, whether you are talking about 100 of them or 1,000 of them,” she said. “Credibility to me lies not in the numbers but in the number of people being helped. I’d be happy to talk about 2,000 people and what we’re going to do to help them.”