EMMY COUNTDOWN : The Curse of the Leader of the Pack : Historically, the front-runner with the most nominations gets bumped off. The voting process is the culprit.

If Emmy history repeats on Sept. 12, “The Sopranos” could end up singing the blues.

Those HBO wise guys may have the most nominations (16), smug smirks on their mugs and that much-coveted TV industry buzz, yes, but beware: At this awards showdown, the front-runner usually gets bumped off.

Last year “ER’s” cast and crew had the most bids (22), but they went into shock when “The Practice” (four nominations) pulled off an upset for best drama series. In 1994, “NYPD Blue” nabbed the most nominations in Emmy history (26), but remember who copped the top prize: “Picket Fences” (10 bids).

“Northern Exposure” and “The Larry Sanders Show” began the award derbies in 1993 and 1997, respectively, with the same number of nominations as “The Sopranos,” but ended up suffering Emmy’s biggest shutouts ever. Faring slightly better in other years were “Miami Vice” (1985) and “Moonlighting” (1986), both of which at least got out the ceremony’s back door with a technical award or two after swaggering in the front door with the most nominations and a cocky attitude of invincibility.

What’s going on?

Being a peer-group prize determined by industry professionals, the Emmys may be the Oscars of TV, but that’s where the parallel ends. In the past 10 years, the film with the most Academy Award nominations took best picture nine times. The one exception: “Silence of the Lambs,” which ended up roaring in 1992 despite having fewer nominations than “Bugsy” or “JFK.” During the same decade span at the Emmys, the front-runner stumbled six times.

In short, it’s a curse to have a head start in the Emmy race.

The reason for this crazy fact is the schizophrenic way that the Emmys are chosen. Nominees are determined by a popular vote of the 9,000 members of the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences. Winners are then picked by members who sit on judging panels, which can be composed of seven to 70 fiercely independent minds.

What those small panels see determines who prevails: videotapes submitted by the nominees as examples of their best work from the past TV season. It doesn’t matter if a majority of the TV academy members want someone to triumph. Until Susan Lucci picked just the right videotape for the daytime Emmy race, she suffered 18 humiliating losses.

When determining the year’s best drama series actor, “Sopranos’ ” James Gandolfini might win the vote of most TV critics, but he won’t win the Emmy unless his videotape tops particularly strong submissions this year by “NYPD Blue’s” Dennis Franz, “Law & Order’s” Sam Waterston and “The Practice’s” Dylan McDermott.

Will Gandolfini prove to be a true wise guy by having selected his series pilot episode? It sure had impact catching him roughing up a doctor who owes him money, then babbling like a baby in front of his psychiatrist because wild ducks deserted his backyard swimming pool.

But Franz could win a strong sympathy vote as a cop who hides at home while trying to cope with his wife’s murder. Lawyer McDermott coped with the attempted murder of his lover Lindsay by having an emotional meltdown in the courtroom (calling his client “stupid” and the opposing attorney an “idiot”), then collapsing at Lindsay’s bedside, begging her, “Marry me!” Waterston gives a star turn in the courtroom too when he lashes out at a clone of Kenneth Starr.

Two “Sopranos” actresses are up for lead acting trophies. Lorraine Bracco’s chances look slim given her passive role as a therapist listening to Gandolfini’s memories of a grizzly childhood. But Edie Falco, as his wife, got a good chance to grandstand emotionally in the episode she submitted to Emmy voters. The panelists saw her drunk, soulful, sobbing, terrified and fending off sinful thoughts when she spent a stormy night alone with a buff parish priest.

In the race for best drama series, “The Sopranos” submitted eight episodes to the panels that convened on Aug. 14 and 15 at the Beverly Hilton Hotel. Four panels saw two episodes each from the five nominated series.

Can “The Sopranos” win?

Even if the HBO drama entered killer shows, its mightiest Uzis may be no match for the mere pen of one foe: producer-writer David E. Kelley, who, yes, writes in long hand (on long legal pads, he revealed recently) and is also a true David, being Emmy’s most notorious nominations Goliath slayer.

Back in 1990, red-hot “Twin Peaks” was the “Sopranos” of its day and towered above all other Emmy contenders with 14 nominations. Stephen Bochco’s “L.A. Law”--executive-produced and written by Kelley at the time, his first TV writing job after leaving his Boston law practice for Hollywood--made a mole hill out of it.

Kelley also was the executive producer and writer for “Picket Fences,” which iced “Northern Exposure” in 1993 and “NYPD Blue” in 1994. Last year, it was his newest series, “The Practice,” that gave “ER” heart trouble. “The Practice” is nominated again, along with three other past, proven champs in the category: “ER” (1996), “Law & Order” (which pulled off a jaw-dropper in 1997 and could do so again) and “NYPD Blue” (it finally won in 1995 when “Picket Fences” wasn’t nominated).

Intriguingly, Kelley also is a competitor this year with “Ally McBeal,” which leads all comedy contenders with 13 nominations. But, wait, doesn’t that mean it’s cursed?

Nope. At six out of the past 10 Emmy Awards broadcast, the comedy show with the most nominations, no joke, actually won. Since drama series tend to get the most overall nominations, those cops, detectives, mobsters and other gritty folk are the ones Emmy voters go gunning for.

Thomas O’Neil is the author of “Variety’s The Emmys.”