A Cold Slap Hits Leaders

By ROBYN NORWOOD

Dec. 18, 2000 12 AM PT

TIMES STAFF WRITER

MIAMI —

Peyton Manning was supposed to pass, but he knew by the fifth step of his drop what he was going to do.

“Sometimes, you can just see it kind of opening up,” he said.

Yes, sometimes you can.

A possible path to the NFL playoffs appeared for the Indianapolis Colts Sunday--much like the lane to the end zone Manning spotted for his first rushing touchdown of the season, a four-yard run in a 20-13 victory over Miami that gave new life to a team that looked dead two weeks ago.

Take everything you thought you knew about the NFL playoff picture.

Now forget it.

On a day when snow swirled in stadiums in Buffalo, Cleveland and Cincinnati, changing playoff scenarios swirled almost everywhere else.

Three teams with a chance to clinch division championships double-clutched in Week 16--Minnesota, Oakland and Miami.

The first to nail down a title? Coach Jim Fassel’s G-is-for-guarantee Giants won the NFC East, even if it took a 17-13 comeback victory over Dallas to do it.

Brace yourself: After Minnesota’s second loss in a row, the Giants need only a victory over Jacksonville Saturday to secure home-field advantage throughout the playoffs--or at least for as long as the Giants last.

It was a weird weekend all around.

Seven favored teams lost--starting with Oakland on Saturday and continuing with Minnesota, Denver, Miami, Jacksonville, Buffalo and the New York Jets on Sunday.

As if that weren’t enough, consider this: The Kansas City Chiefs actually did the Raiders a favor, beating Denver to put Oakland back on track to win the AFC West despite losing to Seattle.

Al Davis ought to send a thank-you note on monogrammed stationery.

That won’t happen, but other things you never expected to see will.

New Orleans, possibly the unlikeliest champion of all, beat Atlanta and will win the NFC West if St. Louis loses to Tampa Bay tonight. (The “Monday Night Football” winner will clinch at least a wild-card spot.)

Make no mistake, the Saints’ first playoff berth since 1992 is a virtual certainty: All that must happen is for the St. Louis-Tampa Bay game not to end in a tie.

Perhaps the farthest-reaching development is that the Vikings are suddenly vulnerable.

For the second week in a row, they missed a chance to clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, this time by losing at home to Green Bay, 33-28.

The Packers--long since an afterthought--kept their own postseason chances alive behind Brett Favre and a tremendous rushing performance from Ahman Green.

For the Vikings, who already have clinched a playoff spot, it isn’t only hosting playoff games in the Metrodome that’s at stake: It’s confidence and momentum going into the playoffs.

The Vikings once had the best record in the NFL, but suddenly have lost two in a row, and their defense is a flashing danger sign after giving up 40 points to the Rams and 33 to the Packers.

Another warning signal: Robert Smith, previously the NFL’s leading rusher, has been held to 67 and 26 yards the last two weeks by St. Louis and Green Bay.

“The only thing I’m concerned about is that we haven’t played well the last two games,” Minnesota Coach Dennis Green said. “That’s two games in a row we have been held to less than 100 yards rushing, and we’ve won 11 games by running the football.”

The Vikings finish the regular-season Sunday on the road against the Colts--a team that will be playing for a wild-card berth if either the Jets lose at Baltimore (probable) or Miami loses at New England (not inconceivable).

The once-upon-a-time Super Bowl favorites had to beat Buffalo on Monday night just to stay alive, then do it again against Miami on the road.

“Two weeks ago, we were not looking too good,” Indianapolis Coach Jim Mora said. “A lot of people counted us out.”

Mora has been down this road before. In 1990, he got the Saints to the playoffs by beating defending champion San Francisco and the Rams on a dramatic field goal the final two weeks of the season to finish 8-8.

Sunday afternoon, he made sure he announced the Jets’ 10-7 loss to still-kicking Detroit to his team, and the Colts started counting the ways they can make it.

“I think I’ve got it figured out,” Manning said. “I know we have to beat Minnesota. That’s all I’m thinking about.”

Miami, like Minnesota, is stumbling down the stretch.

The Dolphins could have clinched the AFC East by winning, but lost at home for the second week in a row.

Quarterback Jay Fiedler has a torn rotator cuff in his non-throwing shoulder. The offense is out of sync. And the defense couldn’t do enough to slow Indianapolis.

“We had everything to play for,” defensive end Trace Armstrong said. “I’m very disappointed.”

It’s all on the line next week. As Jet Coach Al Groh predicted weeks ago, the AFC East won’t be decided until Santa comes down the chimney.

Any one of three teams can still win it--Miami, the Jets or Indianapolis.

Any of those three can still miss the playoffs too.

The Colts have a chance to make it after all, largely because of better defense. Cornerback Jeff Burris has been a big part of that.

Last week against the Bills, he forced a fumble that resulted in a touchdown.

Against Miami, he made a game-clinching interception.

Suddenly, things are going the Colts’ way.

“Destiny?” Colt safety Jason Belser said cautiously. “There’s no such thing as destiny in the NFL.”

Ask St. Louis, Minnesota, Indianapolis--pick any team.

“Nobody’s destined for anything,” Belser said.

“You’ve got to work to get it.”