Expect Miller to Give It His Best Shot

Shooters have games that Reggie Miller had in Game 1. Jalen Rose didn’t shoot that well. Rik Smits didn’t shoot that well. I think the Laker defense was good. I think they did a good job on Miller, fighting through screens. Ron Harper did an excellent job of staying with him, because the Pacers were giving Miller a lot of help with those screens.

I don’t think Phil Jackson changes his game plan there.

As a team, the Pacers like going early to Smits. That’s the first step in putting their offensive scheme together. The defense has to react to that and many times starts to double him. When they start to double him, Miller and some of the others, they’re open. Indiana can put three or four shooters out there who are as good as you can get.

The important thing, if the Lakers have to double Smits and help Shaquille O’Neal so he doesn’t get fouls, then they’re risking leaving open those three-point shooters they have out there. It’s a chess game, a counter game. I’d bet anything the Lakers are well aware the shooting team Indiana is, that the Pacers can put a team away in a quarter.

If you’re Tiger Woods, shooting in the 60s, and suddenly he comes up with a 78, that doesn’t mean that’s it for him for the rest of the year. No, he’ll come back and shoot those 67s. And Miller will. Miller’s already proven that he’s a guy that doesn’t scare. He may have been anxious Wednesday, being at home. That’s natural.

Indiana, then, will stay with the same format it started with in Game 1, offensively, because I’ve seen enough of Smits to know he can make those shots. And Shaq is not going to risk a foul unless he sees that Smits can make them.

I don’t think Indiana is going to be able to move Smits outside and get the same shot against A.C. Green as he would against Shaq. I don’t think Shaq wants to get that far away from the basket, because he’s such a force in there defensively. The Lakers want him in there and he likes to stay in there. But, if Smits starts hitting from outside, like he can, one of two things has to happen: Either Shaq has to go out there and play him or he has to guard Dale Davis.

In the second half Wednesday, Smits had a hard time getting off his shot. He’s so used to being defended by a big guy, that A.C. was forcing him a little, changing his rhythm. A.C. played up on him, like he was a power forward, and there’s no way Smits is going to be an effective driver against A.C.

The counter to that is you counter-rotate Smits into the post and make Shaq move out with Davis. Then Indiana’s got the real advantage with A.C. trying to guard Smits in the post. They had that opportunity. But I think they’re going to come out offensively in the same plan.

The one thing the Lakers can’t stand is to have Shaq in foul trouble early or fouled out, or both. That is exactly what I think Larry Bird will try, and I think he’s wise trying it, because Indiana just doesn’t have the personnel to really affect Shaq in the post.

I think the change they’ll make is to double Shaq with Davis, a very good power forward defensively. He’ll do a better physical job than a guard. A guard isn’t big enough. Shaq can see everything out there over them. You’re allowed to play a three-man zone on that, so I’d imagine they’d drop Jalen Rose or Mark Jackson too.

--As told to TIM BROWN