Long Decline in O.C. Crime Is in Danger

While crime remains at its lowest level in two decades, homicides in Orange County’s largest cities inched up in 1999 for the first time in six years--a possible indication that the much-heralded plunge in violent crime is leveling off.

A new state report released Wednesday shows that the county’s total violent crimes dropped 2% in 1999--a much smaller decrease than the state average. Meanwhile, homicides rose 7% to 60 and the number of rapes jumped 14% to 331.

The new crime figures--which cover all of 1999--are a departure from the hefty decrease seen over the last decade, when homicides fell by half and the total crime rate per 10,000 residents declined from 530 to less than 350.

The findings--coupled with a modest rise in total violent crime in the county’s two largest cities--suggest to some experts that police are beginning to see limits in their efforts to fight such offenses.

Orange County is one of several areas across the nation to record a plateau in the number of violent crimes. New York City and Boston, two metropolises that like Orange County experienced major declines during most of the 1990s, last year saw upticks in homicides and other violent offenses, according to FBI figures.

“Call it the criminal justice limbo stick--at some point you can’t go any lower,” said James Alan Fox, a professor of criminal justice at Northeastern University in Boston. “What this basically signals is that the party may be over.”

Fox, one of the nation’s leading experts on crime statistics, said police departments should begin looking at ways to maintain crime at its existing levels and prevent possible rebounds of problems, such as youth crime.

According to the new state Department of Justice report, Anaheim, Costa Mesa and Santa Ana saw modest increases in violent crimes in 1999. Meanwhile, Fullerton, Irvine and Huntington Beach continued to see healthy declines. Garden Grove’s numbers remained relatively flat.

When it came to property crimes like auto theft and burglary, the county continued its steady decline--16% in 1999. As a result, all Orange County cities surveyed by the state saw drops in total crimes.

The latest figures evaluated major offenses reported in Orange County’s eight largest cities as well as unincorporated areas. Citing computer problems, police in Orange failed to promptly provide the state with full figures for last year. But the city did release the figures late Wednesday.

The numbers show that Orange bucked the countywide trend, registering a decline in violent offenses (6%) but a rise in some property crimes, including larcenies (16%) and auto thefts (3%). Capt. Art Romo attributed the increase in thefts to the influx of major stores to the city over the last couple of years, including The Block shopping mall.

Numbers ‘Couldn’t Keep Dropping Forever’

Law enforcement experts said they expected the recent drop in crime to eventually level off. But some were cautious about declaring the downward trend over, noting that the economy remains strong and major crimes such as homicide and rape can fluctuate statistically from year to year.

“They couldn’t keep dropping forever,” said James Meeker, a UC Irvine criminology professor and an expert on Orange County gang crime. “But you can’t really tell a plateau based on one year.”

Police officials emphasized that the new numbers remain a vast improvement on the number of offenses reported at the beginning of the 1990s, when the county was in the midst of a major crime wave.

While violent crimes in Santa Ana rose overall last year, the city recorded only 15 homicides, the fewest in more than a decade.

Rapes, however, rose 43% to 97. Santa Ana police Capt. Dan McCoy said that the bulk of the increase can be attributed to sexual assaults committed by acquaintances.

Those type of attacks are far more difficult to prevent than sexual assaults committed by strangers, which can be reduced through effective education programs, he said. Stranger rape, McCoy said, actually declined from 12 in 1998 to nine last year.

In Anaheim, violent crime rose by 8%, with double-digit increases in rapes (16%) and assaults (22%). Sgt. Joe Vargas said officials remain baffled by the surge in assaults, which spanned all types of attacks, from bar brawls to violence in the home. But this year’s figures through March, he said, already look better compared to those in 1999.

Police have successfully targeted areas that previously suffered from rampant drug dealing and gang crime, Vargas said. But police are bracing themselves for the possibility that the crime free-fall enjoyed for so long might be coming to an end.

“The decreases are not as much as they have been, and we may see a plateau effect over the next couple of years with crime inching up and down,” Vargas said.

Youth Crime Wave Hasn’t Materialized

Fox, the Northeastern criminologist, said it is only natural that communities which experienced the steepest declines in crime during the 1990s--mostly large urban areas--should be first to reach a plateau.

Los Angeles, despite marking a 5% fall in violent crimes, saw only a 0.5% drop in homicides. New York city recorded an increase of 1% in violent crimes last year, Fox said. Boston saw an uptick in murders during the first half of last year, from 14 to 16.

Fox said that law enforcement officials must work to ensure that crime does not begin to swing upward as today’s teenagers--who have been dubbed the “echo boom” because of their large numbers--hit their most crime-prone ages.

“We haven’t won the war, and we have to keep on working at crime control or they could go up as quickly as they went down,” he said. “We will have a record number of teens in a few years years. Either we invest in programs now or pray for the victims later.”

But the widespread warnings that today’s youth could become tomorrow’s hardened criminals is not materializing, said California Attorney General Bill Lockyer. Defying predication, youth arrests have fallen across the state in the last few years, he said.

The state’s buoyant economy will also help stem any possible rise in crime in the near future, he said.

One problem facing the county is the rise in use of methamphetamine, which is often associated with violent behavior, Lockyer said. Orange County jail officials found that about 85% of substance abusers booked into facilities tested positive for that drug, he said.