Oscar Handicapping Gets Down to Business

A film’s performance at the box office can have significant impact on its Oscar chances. As the year draws to a close and the Oscar race begins to unfold, the commercial success or failure of films already released this year can influence voter perception. That is especially true this year when, by mid-November, few if any sure-thing nominees have emerged, according to top Oscar handicappers, studio executives, outside marketing consultants and industry observers.

With such a wide-open race, popular commercial movies such as “Gladiator,” “Remember the Titans” and “Erin Brockovich” are now being talked about as contenders in several top categories, whereas films with early Oscar buzz, such as “Almost Famous,” “The Legend of Bagger Vance” and “Pay It Forward,” may have been tarnished by their mediocre popularity with the ticket-buying public.

Then there’s the small British film “Billy Elliot,” whose buzz was somewhat quashed by the critics but has, in limited release, been performing like a potential sleeper. Or the Michael Douglas comedy-drama “Wonder Boys,” which failed its first time in February but is being reintroduced in cities with heavy concentrations of voting members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. Other films that have been mentioned, including “The Contender,” “High Fidelity,” “Nurse Betty” and “Requiem for a Dream,” are being given both pluses and minuses because of their lackluster box-office performances.

The last batch of potential contenders, due out next month, is not as susceptible to box-office results than films released earlier in the year, Oscar prognosticators say, which is why December is still the most popular month for studios to take their best shot. It also allows for films released in L.A. for the required Oscar-qualifying run in Los Angeles to increase awareness by the time ballots go out in January.

Even if business isn’t spectacular initially, it can still build momentum through other year-end awards, top 10 lists and the like, whereas a movie that is months old and hasn’t done well begins to appear shopworn, according to one Oscar campaigner.

Curiously, big business wasn’t always considered a bellwether for Oscar acceptance. For instance, “The Silence of the Lambs” (1991) was released in February of that year and was a box-office smash. But because it was a thriller, “Silence” was considered an unlikely best picture nominee. Also, by year’s end it was already out on home video, and movies still in theaters and thus fresh in the minds of voters usually have a slight edge, Oscar pundits contend. They are not only fresher in the minds of academy voters, but the studios also tend to push them more aggressively, because major nominations usually translate to heightened ticket sales.

“Silence” was not only nominated, but it swept the four top categories--picture, director, actor and actress. Last year’s “The Sixth Sense” was also overlooked almost until the morning the nominations were announced because it was a big, popular thriller, a genre that is traditionally not considered award-worthy, and it ultimately did not win any. Only mainstream comedies are more likely to be dismissed when it comes to Oscar talk, which is why “Annie Hall” is a virtual anomaly, a best picture winner that was also a hit comedy.

‘Gladiator’: A Force to Be Reckoned With?

This year, another popular genre picture, “Gladiator,” is being talked about as a potential best picture nominee. Since the demise of the studio system, big-budget spectaculars were usually relegated to the technical categories with the best picture slot reserved for “serious” movies. Since “Braveheart” and especially “Titanic” (the most commercially successful movie ever made) both won best picture, says one awards campaigner, everything has changed. Some pundits go even further back, to 1990’s “Dances With Wolves.”

Depending on the mix of likely nominees by the end of the year, “Gladiator” could also show up in the top categories, including a best actor nomination for Russell Crowe and a supporting nod for Joaquin Phoenix. DreamWorks, which released “Gladiator” in the U.S., has previously mounted effective campaigns for “Saving Private Ryan” and last year’s winner, “American Beauty” (a September release).

Similarly, “Erin Brockovich,” a worldwide hit that has grossed more than $250 million--and is already out on video and DVD--could qualify for the big prize. Earlier in the year it was assumed the film might be too lightweight for the top prize and would do best in categories such as best actress (Julia Roberts) and supporting actor (Albert Finney). But with few viable candidates for the best picture slot at this point, Universal is mounting a full-scale campaign as well as an exclusive re-release of the film in theaters. That strategy worked very well for “Saving Private Ryan” a couple of years ago, though it ultimately lost out for best picture to a December release, “Shakespeare in Love.”

And what of the movies that didn’t do well? Most insiders agree that “Pay It Forward” looked promising at the outset because it starred two Oscar winners, Kevin Spacey and Helen Hunt, as well as a supporting actor nominee from last year, Haley Joel Osment. But the film was seriously damaged by critics and has done only moderate business (less than $30 million to date), and insiders say it has completely lost momentum. “The Legend of Bagger Vance,” directed by Oscar winner Robert Redford and starring another Oscar winner, Matt Damon, also had some buzz going into its theatrical release. Reviews were mixed and ticket sales so-so. That was enough for most academy handicappers to strike it from their list of potential nominees, they say.

Another Push for ‘Almost Famous’

Curiously, however, they haven’t given up on “Almost Famous.” Cameron Crowe’s well-reviewed ‘70s nostalgia trip had very heavy buzz going in. Mainstream audiences didn’t accept the film, which has brought in little more than $30 million to date, dampening pundit ardor. However, because of the strong reviews, particularly for some of the film’s performances (Kate Hudson, Frances McDormand), handicappers are saying that “Almost Famous” may still have a chance.

It could wind up on top 10 lists and be mentioned in critics’ polls, which did the trick for another box-office underperformer last year, “The Insider.” After opening in November, almost no one went to see it, but the critics remembered the drama at year’s end, and, even without an all-out Oscar campaign, it ended up among the best picture nominees.

Oscar campaigners are also not discounting “Wonder Boys,” directed by Curtis Hanson. As with the director’s “L.A. Confidential,” which wasn’t a major box-office hit, year-end attention might even revive the film somewhat. Year-end kudos from critics might lift another film obscurity, the romantic comedy “High Fidelity,” starring John Cusack. It is another spring release that earned some good reviews but didn’t make much of an imprint at the box office.

The academy always seems to have room for an underdog. This year it could be the small British import “Billy Elliot.” Though it was initially hurt by only modest reviews, the film has been popular in limited release. And because so little was expected of the sentimental drama, it’s being perceived as a hit. That, say some insiders, could boost the film’s Oscar chances, as it did for some other non-American-made films such as “The Full Monty,” “Life Is Beautiful” and “Il Postino.”

But it’s not just the top prize that’s at stake. Box-office approbation can alter a film’s perception in other significant categories. For instance, Denzel Washington is now being mentioned by academy handicappers for “Remember the Titans,” a commercial drama that turned into a surprise fall box-office blockbuster, grossing more than $100 million to date. It is Washington’s biggest hit, and the Oscar winner now finds himself in the running for a performance that had little or no buzz going in.

The same theory could apply to the political potboiler “The Contender,” a modestly budgeted, independently made movie that has done well enough at the box office to warrant consideration in the acting categories for performers such as Joan Allen, Gary Oldman and Jeff Bridges. (Oldman seems to have hampered his effort, some say, by insisting he be championed for best actor rather than in the supporting category, and for attacking DreamWorks, which released the film, accusing it of re-cutting it to a more liberal slant, which the filmmakers and the studio have denied.)

And to a lesser degree, such independent releases as “Requiem for a Dream” and “Nurse Betty” could place with the actor’s branch (Ellen Burstyn in the former, Renee Zellweger and Morgan Freeman in the latter) because they have been doing fairly well in theaters.

With half a dozen heavy Oscar-buzz films yet to surface, however, the handicapping could change perceptibly by mid-December, raising or lowering the fortunes on any of the films that have been released so far. There’s nothing like a well-reviewed box-office hit that arrives in theaters just before the Dec. 31 Oscar-qualifying deadline to dispatch films released earlier in the year to the realm of ancient history.